Get our Matteo Berrettini vs. Casper Ruud prediction and betting preview for the 2025 ATP Rome Round of 32. See head-to-head stats, betting tips, prop bets, and best parlay picks.
Home favorite Matteo Berrettini takes on Casper Ruud, the recently crowned Madrid champion, in what promises to be one of the highlights of the Round of 32 at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Monday, May 12, 2025, at Foro Italico in Rome, Italy.
Both players bring momentum and history into this matchup. Ruud leads the head-to-head 4-3, including a 3-1 advantage on clay, but Berrettini will have the backing of a passionate Italian crowd. After snapping a two-year absence from his home event, Berrettini looks determined to make a deep run in front of his home fans.
Ruud, on the other hand, arrives on a seven-match winning streak after lifting the Madrid Masters title and grinding past Alexander Bublik in his Rome opener. Known for his consistency on clay, Ruud will look to extend his dominance over Berrettini on this surface.
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📺 Where to Watch Matteo Berrettini vs. Casper Ruud? (May 12, 2025)
| Match Day | Monday, May 12, 2025 |
| Time | TBA |
| Location | Foro Italico, Rome, Italy |
| Surface | Clay |
| TV | Eurosport, Tennis Channel |
| Streaming | TennisTV, Discovery+ |
💸 Betting Odds
| Favorite | Casper Ruud (-160) |
| Underdog | Matteo Berrettini (+125) |
| Implied Win Probability | Ruud 61.5%, Berrettini 44.4% |
📊 Player Form Comparison
| Player | Ruud | Berrettini |
| World Rank | 7 | 30 |
| 2025 Match Record | 21-6 | 12-9 |
| 2025 Set Record | 37-19 | 30-21 |
| 2025 Aces per Match | 4.8 | 10.8 |
| 2025 Break Points Won | 59 | 43 |
| Career Titles | 13 | 10 |
| Career W/L Record | 279-146 | 200-107 |
| Career Prize Money | $23,439,827 | $13,175,196 |
🏆 Head-to-Head History
| Meetings | Winner | Surface | Score | Year |
| 7 Matches | Ruud leads 4-3 | Clay 3-1 | Various | 2020-2024 |
- Last met on clay in 2024, with Ruud winning in three sets.
- Only two of seven matches finished in straight sets.
🎾 Recent Performances
Casper Ruud
- Madrid Masters Champion (First Masters 1000 title)
- Beat Bublik in three sets in Rome opener
- 10-2 on clay this season
Matteo Berrettini
- Beat Jacob Fearnley in straight sets to reach R32
- 4-2 on clay this season
- Reached Rome quarterfinal in 2020 (lost to Ruud)
🧠 Tactical Breakdown
- Berrettini will rely on his big serve and forehand to dictate points.
- Ruud thrives on long rallies, defensive consistency, and heavy topspin on clay.
- Berrettini’s slice backhand and drop shots could disrupt Ruud’s rhythm, but Ruud’s patience and superior movement on clay give him the edge in longer exchanges.
🎯 Matteo Berrettini vs. Casper Ruud Prediction and Best Bet
While Berrettini will have the crowd advantage, Ruud’s current form, clay-court prowess, and head-to-head edge make him the favorite. However, given their tight history and Berrettini’s serving power, expect long sets and possibly a tiebreak.
Prediction:
Casper Ruud to Win in 3 Sets
Best Bet:
- Over 22.5 Games
- Both Players to Win a Set
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