Get our Marcos Giron vs. Hubert Hurkacz prediction and betting preview for the 2025 ATP Rome Round of 32. See head-to-head stats, betting tips, prop bets, and best parlay picks.
Two players looking to build clay-court momentum face off on Monday, May 12, 2025, as Marcos Giron meets Hubert Hurkacz in the Round of 32 at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia at Foro Italico in Rome, Italy.
Hurkacz, the higher-ranked player at No. 31, enters as the -235 favorite, holding a 3-0 career head-to-head edge over Giron. While clay is not traditionally Hurkacz’s strongest surface, the big-serving Pole showed glimpses of improvement with a solid 6-1, 7-5 win over Pedro Martinez in the previous round.
Giron, ranked No. 45, comes into this match riding the momentum of his 7-6, 7-6 upset over Taylor Fritz. The American has quietly put together a 12-9 record this season, and while clay isn’t his best surface (2-7 over the last 12 months), his consistency from the baseline and clutch play in tiebreaks make him a live underdog.
With both players having already impressed in their last outings, Monday’s clash could come down to serve dominance and big-point execution. Hurkacz’s serve is among the best on tour, but Giron has shown he can grind out results when underestimated.
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📺 Where to Watch Marcos Giron vs. Hubert Hurkacz? (May 12, 2025)
| Match Day | Monday, May 12, 2025 |
| Time | TBA |
| Location | Foro Italico, Rome, Italy |
| Surface | Outdoor Clay |
| TV | Tennis Channel (US) |
| Streaming | Fubo (US) |
💸 Betting Odds
| Favorite | Hubert Hurkacz (-235) |
| Underdog | Marcos Giron (+180) |
| Implied Win Probability | Hurkacz 70.1%, Giron 35.7% |
📊 Player Form Comparison
| Player | Giron | Hurkacz |
| World Rank | 45 | 31 |
| 2025 Match Record | 12-9 | 7-8 |
| 2025 Set Record | 30-26 | 12-12 |
| 2025 Aces per Match | 5.1 | 10.6 |
| 2025 Break Points Won | 53 | 16 |
| Career Titles | 1 | 8 |
| Career W/L Record | 116-128 | 218-150 |
| Career Prize Money | $5,409,444 | $17,596,635 |
🏆 Head-to-Head History
| Meetings | Winner | Surface | Score | Year |
| 3 Matches | Hurkacz leads 3-0 | Hard (all) | Various | 2020-2023 |
🎾 Recent Performances
Marcos Giron
- Defeated Taylor Fritz 7-6, 7-6 in R64
- 2-7 clay record over the past 12 months
- 34.7% break point conversion on clay
Hubert Hurkacz
- Defeated Pedro Martinez 6-1, 7-5 in R64
- 6-3 clay record over the past 12 months
- 83.8% service games won on clay
🧠 Tactical Breakdown
- Hurkacz will look to dominate with his big serve and shorten points, avoiding long rallies.
- Giron will try to extend points, force errors, and lean on his backhand consistency and return game.
- Expect tight sets, possibly including at least one tiebreak if both players serve well.
🎯 Prop Bets to Watch
| Market | Pick | Odds (Example) |
| Match Result | Hurkacz to Win 2-0 | +110 |
| Total Games | Over 22.5 | -105 |
| First Set Tiebreak | Yes | +180 |
| Most Aces | Hurkacz | -200 |
🏆 Parlay Suggestion
| Leg | Odds (Example) |
| Hurkacz to Win 2-0 | +110 |
| Over 22.5 Total Games | -105 |
| First Set Tiebreak – Yes | +180 |
| Combined Parlay Odds | +625 |
🔮 Marcos Giron vs. Hubert Hurkacz Prediction
While Giron has momentum, Hurkacz’s superior serving and head-to-head dominance make him the pick to advance. Giron could push a set to a tiebreak, but expect Hurkacz to handle business in straight but tight sets.
Prediction:
Hubert Hurkacz to Win in 2 Sets
Best Bet:
- Hurkacz to Win 2-0
- Over 22.5 Games
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