Get the full Gabe Green vs. Matheus Camilo prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Vegas 106.
A high-stakes lightweight clash unfolds at UFC Vegas 106 as veteran Gabe “Gifted” Green makes his divisional debut after a two-year layoff to face Brazilian prospect Matheus “Jaguar” Camilo, who enters on a six-fight winning streak.
Green, known for his durability and forward pressure, hasn’t fought since suffering a brutal 14-second KO loss to Bryan Battle. Now at lightweight, he seeks redemption. Camilo, meanwhile, has dominated the regional circuit and is looking to shine in his UFC debut—but he’s never faced an opponent with Green’s grit and UFC experience.
This classic veteran-vs-prospect matchup could turn into a war—or a breakthrough moment for one fighter’s career.
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📺 Where to Watch UFC Vegas 106: Gabe Green vs. Matheus Camilo? (May 17, 2025)
| 🗓 Date | Saturday, May 17, 2025 |
| 🕖 Time | Prelims – 5:00 p.m. ET |
| 📍 Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| 📡 Broadcast | ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win % |
| Matheus Camilo | -230 | 69.7% |
| Gabe Green | +190 | 34.5% |
| Prop Market | Odds |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | +120 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | -154 |
| Camilo by Decision | +180 |
| Green by Submission | +550 |
📏 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Gabe Green | Matheus Camilo |
| Record | 11-5-0 | 9-2-0 |
| Age | 32 | 24 |
| Height | 5’10” | — |
| Reach | 73″ | — |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:51 | — |
| SLpM (Strikes Landed) | 6.28 | — |
| Striking Accuracy | 45% | — |
| SApM (Strikes Absorbed) | 6.95 | — |
| Striking Defense | 47% | — |
| Takedown Avg/15 min | 0.83 | — |
| Takedown Accuracy | 50% | — |
| Takedown Defense | 53% | — |
| Submission Avg/15 min | 0.3 | — |
🔍 Why Gabe Green Will Win
- ✅ UFC-Caliber Experience – Fought and survived tough competition like Ian Garry, Bryan Battle, and Daniel Rodriguez.
- ✅ Balanced Finishing – 10 of his 11 wins by finish (4 KO, 6 SUB).
- ✅ Size & Octagon Pressure – Debuting at lightweight with a 73″ reach and relentless forward motion.
📊 Green’s toughness and submission savvy could be enough to drown Camilo late if the prospect starts to fade under UFC lights.
🔍 Why Matheus Camilo Will Win
- ✅ Momentum – Six-fight win streak, most recently a unanimous decision over Dorobshokh Nabotov.
- ✅ Well-Rounded Offense – Four knockouts and two submissions reflect a versatile skillset.
- ✅ Athleticism & Youth – At just 24 years old, Camilo is fresher, faster, and on the rise.
📊 If Camilo uses range and mixes in grappling early, he can frustrate Green’s rhythm and take control of the fight.
💣 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop | Odds |
| Camilo via Decision | +180 |
| Green via Submission | +550 |
| Fight Goes Distance | +120 |
| Green to Win Round 3 or Decision | +425 |
🧪 Same Fight Parlay (ClutchBuzz Pick)
- ✅ Over 2.5 Rounds
- ✅ Camilo to Land 1+ Takedown
- ✅ Green to Land 40+ Significant Strikes
📊 Odds: +210
💰 $50 wager pays ~$155
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Gabe Green vs. Matheus Camilo Prediction
🥊 Pick: Matheus Camilo by Decision
🔮 Confidence Level: 6/10
This is a dangerous spot for bettors riding the hype train. Camilo has tools, but he’s never been tested on this level. Meanwhile, Green is durable and has more UFC rounds logged than Camilo has fights.
That said, Camilo has better cardio, mixes striking and grappling well, and should avoid Green’s submission threats. If he stays composed early and avoids brawling, he can edge a decision on volume and control.
📌 The pick is Camilo on points—but this fight is a trap for public bettors expecting an easy debut finish. Green is live, and +190 is tempting.
