Get the full Pavlovich vs. Cortes-Acosta prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Shanghai.
The heavyweight division takes center stage on August 23, 2025, when former interim title challenger Sergei Pavlovich (19-3, 15 KOs) meets rising contender Waldo “Salsa Boy” Cortes-Acosta (14-1, 6 KOs) in a three-round clash at UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Zhang in Shanghai.
This is a classic striker’s battle: Pavlovich brings thunderous knockout power and a massive reach advantage, while Cortes-Acosta leans on crisp boxing and volume. Expect either a quick finish… or a slow, jab-heavy affair.
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📺 Where to Watch UFC Shanghai: Pavlovich vs. Cortes-Acosta ? (Aug 23, 2025)
| Event | UFC Fight Night: Walker vs Zhang |
| Date | Saturday, Aug. 23, 2025 |
| Location | Shanghai, China |
| Time (Main Card) | 2:00 AM ET / 11:00 PM PT |
| Broadcast | ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Probability |
| Sergei Pavlovich | -245 | ~71% |
| Waldo Cortes-Acosta | +200 | ~33% |
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Pavlovich | Cortes-Acosta | |
| Age | 33 | 33 |
| Record | 19-3 (15 KOs) | 14-1 (6 KOs) |
| Height | 6’3” (191 cm) | 6’4” (193 cm) |
| Reach | 84” (214 cm) | 78” (199 cm) |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Win Rate | 86% | 93% |
| KO Rate | 79% | 43% |
| Avg Fight Time | Short (KO-heavy) | Long (Decision-heavy) |
| Current Streak | Coming off rebound win | Won 5 straight |
🔎 Fighter Breakdown
Sergei Pavlovich
- Strengths:
- Elite knockout power (15 KOs in 19 wins).
- Massive 84” reach, one of the longest in the division.
- Experience at the very top — fought for interim gold.
- Weaknesses:
- Defensive lapses — can be countered if fights extend.
- Limited use of wrestling despite Greco-Roman background.
- High-risk style: usually kill or be killed.
- Best Win: Curtis Blaydes.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- Strengths:
- High striking volume (nearly 6 strikes landed/min).
- Good jab and cardio for heavyweight.
- Can wrestle defensively if needed.
- Weaknesses:
- Reach disadvantage (-6”).
- Less finishing power than Pavlovich.
- Decision-heavy style may not sway judges against KO threat.
- Best Win: Serghei Spivac.
📈 Betting Trends
- Pavlovich: 15 of 19 wins by KO; almost never sees the scorecards.
- Cortes-Acosta: 5 straight wins; tends to out-volume rather than finish.
- Both Fighters: Orthodox strikers → reach and power will define the exchanges.
🔥 Prop Bets to Target
| Prop Bet | Odds (Est.) | Why It Makes Sense |
| Pavlovich by KO/TKO | -140 | His primary win condition; proven one-punch power. |
| Fight Under 2.5 Rounds | -125 | Heavyweights + KO power = short night likely. |
| Cortes-Acosta by Decision | +400 | If he survives the early storm, can jab his way to points. |
| Fight Goes the Distance | +220 | Rare at heavyweight, but Cortes-Acosta drags fights out. |
📊 $1,000 Bet Payouts
- $1,000 on Pavlovich (-245) → $1,408 total ($408 profit)
- $1,000 on Pavlovich by KO (-140) → $1,714 total ($714 profit)
- $1,000 on Cortes-Acosta (+200) → $3,000 total ($2,000 profit)
- $1,000 on Cortes-Acosta by Decision (+400) → $5,000 total ($4,000 profit)
🎯 Same-Fight Parlay (ClutchBuzz Special)
| Parlay Legs | Odds (Est.) |
| Pavlovich ML (-245) + Under 2.5 Rounds (-125) | +165 |
| Cortes-Acosta ML (+200) + Fight Goes Distance (+220) | +600 |
🧾 ClutchBuzz Prediction
This fight comes down to whether Cortes-Acosta can stay on his bike and jab long enough to avoid Pavlovich’s bombs. The problem? Pavlovich has a 6-inch reach advantage and carries the kind of power that changes fights instantly. Cortes-Acosta has looked sharp in his win streak, but this is a stylistic nightmare.
🔮 Prediction: Sergei Pavlovich via KO (Round 1-2)
💰 Best Bet: Pavlovich by KO (-140)
🎯 Prop Bet: Fight Under 2.5 Rounds (-125)
📈 Parlay: Pavlovich ML + Under 2.5 Rounds (+165)
