Check the Lynx vs. Mercury prediction for the WNBA playoffs semifinals game 2. See odds, betting picks, injury news, player props and a parlay.
The Minnesota Lynx (34-10) look to take control of their semifinal series as they host the Phoenix Mercury (27-17) in Game 2 of the WNBA Playoffs semifinals. Tip-off is scheduled for Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025, at 7:30 PM ET at Target Center in Minneapolis, airing live on ESPN.
Minnesota secured a 82–69 win in Game 1, behind Courtney Williams’ 23-point, 7-assist performance and a strong defensive effort that held Phoenix to just 13% shooting from three. The Mercury, led by Kahleah Copper’s 22 points, must regroup quickly if they want to even the series before heading home.
Find the future WNBA Championship odds here and upcoming match schedule here.
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📺 Where to Watch Lynx vs. Mercury? (Tuesday, September 23)
| Matchup | Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx |
| When | Tuesday, Sept. 23, 2025 – 7:30 PM ET |
| Where | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| TV/Stream | ESPN / Fubo |
| Tickets | Available on Vivid Seats |
Betting Odds – Game 2
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total (O/U) |
| Minnesota Lynx | -7.5 (-110) | -360 | O 158.5 (-110) |
| Phoenix Mercury | +7.5 (-110) | +280 | U 158.5 (-110) |
- Spread Prediction: Lynx -7.5
- Total Prediction: Over 158.5
- Moneyline Prediction: Lynx (-360)
Scoring Insights
- Minnesota Offense: 86.1 PPG (1st in WNBA), shooting 47.2% FG.
- Phoenix Offense: 82.8 PPG (7th), shooting 43.3% FG.
- Lynx Defense: 76.7 PPG allowed (2nd), holding opponents to 42.3% FG.
- Mercury Defense: 80.1 PPG allowed (5th), opponents shooting 42.7%.
📊 Trend: Both teams combine to average 168.9 points per game, well above the total of 158.5.
Against the Spread (ATS)
| Team | ATS Record | As Fav | As Dog |
| Lynx | 26-20-1 | 18-9 | 8-11-1 |
| Mercury | 24-24 | 23-21 | 1-3 |
✅ Pick ATS: Lynx -7.5
Minnesota is 18-9 ATS when favored by 7.5+ this season. Phoenix has covered just once in four games as a dog of 7.5 or more.
Moneyline Breakdown
| Team | Moneyline | Implied Win % |
| Lynx | -360 | 78.3% |
| Mercury | +280 | 26.3% |
The Lynx have won 35 of 44 games as favorites this year (79.5%). Phoenix is just 7-9 as an underdog, and only 1-2 when listed at +280 or longer.
🔮 Prediction: Lynx 85 – Mercury 74
Best Prop Bets
Lynx Player Props
| Player | Points O/U | Rebounds O/U | Assists O/U | Pick |
| Napheesa Collier | 21.5 | 7.5 | 2.5 | Over Points, Over Rebounds |
| Kayla McBride | 14.5 | – | 3.5 | Over Points |
| Courtney Williams | 13.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | Over Assists |
| Alanna Smith | 7.5 | 4.5 | – | Under Points |
Mercury Player Props
| Player | Points O/U | Rebounds O/U | Assists O/U | Pick |
| Kahleah Copper | 15.5 | 3.5 | – | Over Points |
| Alyssa Thomas | 15.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | Over Rebounds, Over Assists |
| Satou Sabally | 14.5 | 5.5 | 2.5 | Under Points |
| DeWanna Bonner | – | 4.5 | – | Over Rebounds |
Team Leaders
Minnesota Lynx
- Napheesa Collier: 22.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 3.2 APG, 53.1% FG
- Kayla McBride: 14.2 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 3.5 APG, 2.6 3PM
- Courtney Williams: 13.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 6.2 APG
Phoenix Mercury
- Satou Sabally: 16.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.5 APG
- Kahleah Copper: 15.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 39% 3PT
- Alyssa Thomas: 15.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 9.2 APG
Same-Game Parlay (SGP)
| Leg | Pick | Odds* | Why It Fits |
| Napheesa Collier Over 21.5 Points | -110 | She’s averaging 22.9 and dominates Phoenix inside. | |
| Kahleah Copper Over 15.5 Points | -110 | Mercury’s top scoring option; dropped 22 in Game 1. | |
| Over 158.5 Total Points | -110 | Both teams’ combined averages sit nearly 10 points higher. |
Parlay Payout: +600 (Bet $100 → Win $600)
*Approximate combined odds.
Final ClutchBuzz Pick
The Lynx showed in Game 1 why they’re one of the WNBA’s most balanced teams, with elite offense and suffocating defense. Phoenix has talent in Copper, Thomas, and Sabally, but their inconsistency from deep (3-for-23 in Game 1) is hard to overcome against Minnesota’s discipline.
🔥 Final Prediction: Lynx 85 – Mercury 74
- Best Bet: Lynx -7.5
- O/U: Over 158.5
- Moneyline: Lynx -360
