Seattle leveled the series behind a vintage October grind, riding Jorge Polanco’s two-homer day and high-leverage outs from the bullpen.
Now it’s Logan Gilbert vs Jack Flaherty in a pivotal swing game at Comerica, where contact and gap power often decide close totals.
Expect chess moves early — both managers have quick hooks and trust pens that have been nails the last two weeks.
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📺 Where To Watch Mariners vs. Tigers ALDS Game 3? (October 7, 2025)
| Item | Info |
| Matchup | Mariners at Tigers — ALDS Game 3 |
| Date / Time | Tue., Oct. 7, 2025 — 4:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Streaming | Fubo, Fox Sports app |
| Venue | Comerica Park — Detroit, MI |
💰 Betting Odds
| Market | Mariners | Tigers |
| Moneyline | -133 to -150 | +112 to +125 |
| Run Line | SEA -1.5 (+131) | DET +1.5 (-158) |
| Total | 7.5 (Over -103 / Under -118) | — |
Implied win prob: SEA ~57% • DET ~47% (book-dependent).
🔢 Pitching Matchup
| Team | Starter | Hand | 2025 Line | Recent Form (last 5) |
| SEA | Logan Gilbert | R | 6–6, 3.44 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 11.9 K/9 | 26.2 IP, 1.69 ERA, 30 K, 5 BB — slider feel on point |
| DET | Jack Flaherty | R | 8–15, 4.64 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.19 K/BB | 23.2 IP, 2.66 ERA, 23 K, 9 BB — living down/away, soft contact |
Edge: Gilbert’s command + whiff rate travels; Flaherty’s recent form narrows the gap, especially in a big park.
📊 Team Snapshot
| Metric (2025) | Mariners | Tigers |
| Runs/Game | 4.70 (10th) | 4.68 (11th) |
| HR | 238 (3rd) | 198 (10th) |
| AVG / OBP / SLG | .244 / .320 / .420 | .247 / .316 / .413 |
| K (Batters) | 1,446 (6th most) | 1,454 (5th most) |
| Team ERA | 3.87 (13th) | 3.95 (15th) |
| WHIP | 1.22 (6th) | 1.25 (13th) |
| Bullpen Save% | 62.3% | 64.5% |
Read: SEA = HR upside + elite staff WHIP; DET = balanced offense, steady run prevention.
📈 Recent Form (Last 10)
| Team | Record | Runs/G | SLG | Staff ERA | K/9 |
| Mariners | 6–4 | 4.3 | .440 (14 HR) | 3.13 | 10.5 |
| Tigers | 5–5 | 2.7 | .353 (6 HR) | 2.79 | 9.2 |
Note: Detroit’s offense has cooled, but the pitching (especially pen) is holding the line.
🧢 Key Bats to Watch
| Club | Hitter | 2025 Snapshot | Angle |
| SEA | Cal Raleigh | 60 HR, 125 RBI | Comerica suppresses HRs a bit, but his pull/loft profile still plays vs FB up. |
| SEA | Julio Rodríguez | .267, 31 2B, 32 HR | Opposite-field gap power; live for 2+ TB on liners. |
| SEA | Jorge Polanco | 2 HR in G2 | Hot bat; switch-hitting length vs DET pen mix. |
| DET | Riley Greene | 36 HR, 111 RBI | Carry bat; targets RCF power alley. |
| DET | Gleyber Torres | .256, 16 HR, 85 BB | OBP driver; if on base, Greene/Tork can cash him in. |
| DET | Spencer Torkelson | 31 HR | Better at-bats of late; lift vs four-seamers middle. |
🔍 Match Edges & Levers
- Third time through: Both managers are quick to pen; expect 5–6 IP caps if traffic builds.
- Comerica factor: Extra-base hit park; doubles can stack on both sides → sneaky path to 8+ runs without barrage of HRs.
- High-leverage pens: SEA (stuff) vs DET (execution) — slightest lean SEA if they can hand it to the back-end clean.
🎯 ClutchBuzz Best Bets
- Both Teams to Score 3+ Runs (Yes)
- Correlated with doubles park + two lineups with top-11 SLG.
- Julio Rodríguez 2+ Total Bases
- Approach + park gaps fit; recent contact quality steady.
- Riley Greene RBI (Yes)
- Team RBI leader, bats in prime run-producing spot; DET likely sees at least 7–9 runners reach.
🧩 Same-Game Parlay (SGP) — Value Build
| Leg | Pick | Est. Odds |
| Alt Total Over 7 | — | -125 |
| Both Teams 2+ Runs | — | -250 |
| Julio Rodríguez 2+ TB | — | +110 |
Projected SGP: +275 to +320 range (shop it).
Balanced exposure to run environment + one player upside.
🧠 Final Mariners vs. Tigers Prediction
- Gilbert carries the higher ceiling; Flaherty’s recent floor is better than season line says.
- Park + current pen form point to a one-run game with late traffic deciding it.
Prediction: Mariners 5, Tigers 4
Leans: Over 7 (safer than 7.5), SEA ML (smaller stake), Julio 2+ TB.
