An ace-on-ace showdown headlines Monday night in San Diego as the Milwaukee Brewers (95-61) visit the San Diego Padres (85-71) at 9:40 p.m. ET. Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.65 ERA) takes the ball for Milwaukee, while Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.81 ERA) starts for San Diego. Both rotations rank among MLB’s best, and the total is a tight 7 runs — oddsmakers are signaling a pitchers’ duel at Petco.
Milwaukee brings the more explosive offense (3rd-most runs in MLB) and a top-2 staff ERA, while San Diego counters with elite contact hitting, low strikeouts, and a staff ERA that also sits top-3. With two Cy Young-caliber stat lines on the mound, a single mistake (or a late bullpen edge) could swing it.
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📺 Where To Watch Padres vs. Brewers? (September 22, 2025)
| Matchup | Date | Time (ET) | Venue | TV | Live Stream |
| Brewers vs. Padres | Mon, Sept. 22, 2025 | 9:40 PM | Petco Park (San Diego, CA) | SDPA, FDSWI | Fubo |
💰 Betting Odds
| Market view | Padres ML | Brewers ML | Run Line | Total |
| Example line | -125 | +105 | Padres -1.5 | 7 |
| Alt line (market variation) | +126 | -152 | — | 8.5 |
Note: Sportsbooks are split on a small favorite. Shop for the best number if you’re playing a side.
⚾ Pitcher Matchup
| Pitcher | Team | W-L | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | 2025 Batters AVG vs | Last Start (date) |
| Freddy Peralta (RHP) | MIL | 17-6 | 2.65 | — | 10.3 | .190 | 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K vs LAA (Sept 16) |
| Nick Pivetta (RHP) | SD | 13-5 | 2.81 | — | 9.5 | .195 | 4.2 IP, 3 ER at NYM (Sept 17) |
Recent form (last 5):
- Peralta: 5 GS, 27 IP, 1.67 ERA, 41 K
- Pivetta: 5 GS, 27.2 IP, 2.28 ERA, 31 K
📊 Team Snapshot
| Team | Runs (Rank) | HR (Rank) | AVG (Rank) | SLG (Rank) | K/G (Off Rank) | Team ERA (Rank) | Staff K/9 (Rank) |
| Brewers | 790 (3rd) | 163 (20th) | .261 (2nd) | .408 (12th) | 7.8 (5th-lowest Ks) | 3.62 (2nd) | 8.9 (5th) |
| Padres | 665 (19th) | 142 (29th) | .252 (7th) | .388 (23rd) | 7.1 (3rd-lowest Ks) | 3.68 (3rd) | 8.9 (5th) |
Bullpens & Defense (season):
- Brewers pen: 43 SV, 69.4% SV rate, 101 holds (5th), 1.229 WHIP staff, strong conversion late.
- Padres pen: 47 SV, 74.6% SV rate (1st), 98 holds, staff 1.205 WHIP, elite at stranding runners (29.7% IRS).
🔑 Key Players to Watch
| Brewers | Notes |
| Christian Yelich | 29 HR, 100 RBI — primary thump vs RHP |
| William Contreras | .265 AVG, 28 2B, 83 BB — day-to-day (hand); monitor lineup |
| Brice Turang | .286 AVG, 26 2B, 18 HR — contact/speed catalyst |
| Jackson Chourio | .275, 34 2B, 20 HR — extra-base upside in Petco alleys |
| Padres | Notes |
| Manny Machado | .275, 26 HR, 93 RBI — top run producer |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 23 HR, 66 RBI — power/speed threat |
| Luis Arraez | .287 AVG — table-setter vs high-K arms |
| Ramon Laureano | .516 SLG — added lift to middle of order |
📈 Betting Trends
| Team | As Favorite | As Dog | O/U |
| Padres | 52-36 (59.1%) | — | 66-84-6 (Under-lean) |
| Brewers | — | 35-28 (55.6%) overall as dog; 24-22 at +105 or longer | 75-79-2 (Over-lean) |
Interpretation: Padres play more Unders; Brewers’ higher run environment has produced more Overs.
🔬 Edge Breakdown
- Starting Pitching: Push. Peralta’s peak is slightly higher right now; Pivetta’s season long body (2.81 ERA, .195 opp AVG) is elite.
- Lineup Quality: Edge Brewers (top-3 runs, .261 team AVG). Padres lack HR pop (29th).
- Bullpen/Run Prevention: Slight edge Padres (best save rate), but Brewers’ overall staff metrics are top-2.
- Park/Total: Petco + two aces → first-5 Under angles are live, even with a full-game total of 7.
🧾 Same Game Parlay (SGP)
| Leg | Pick |
| First 5 Innings Under 3.5 | ✅ |
| Freddy Peralta 7+ Strikeouts | ✅ |
| Nick Pivetta 6+ Strikeouts | ✅ |
🔮 Final ClutchBuzz Prediction
| Side | Total | Score |
| Brewers +105 (or better) | Under 7 (lean: F5 Under 3.5 stronger) | Brewers 3, Padres 2 |
ClutchBuzz Take: With two top-5 ERAs and strikeout machines on the hill, early innings should be tight. Milwaukee’s deeper run production profile and Peralta’s recent dominance tip a one-run road win. Prefer F5 Under as the cleaner angle; for a side, grab the plus money on the Brewers where available.
