The Iowa State Cyclones (5–3) return home to Jack Trice Stadium in Ames for a critical Big 12 clash against the Arizona State Sun Devils (5–2) on Saturday, November 1, 2025, with kickoff scheduled for 12:00 PM Central Time on TNT.
Both programs enter the matchup in search of momentum — Arizona State dropped a tough home loss to Houston (24–16), while Iowa State looks to bounce back from a 41–27 defeat at the hands of BYU. The Cyclones are 5.5-point favorites at home, and oddsmakers have set the total at 50.5 in what projects to be a balanced, physical game between two teams built around defense and efficiency.
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📺 Where to Watch Iowa State vs. Arizona State? (November 1)
| Date | Time (Local – CT) | Stadium | TV / Stream |
| Saturday, Nov 1, 2025 | 12:00 PM CT | Jack Trice Stadium (Ames, Iowa) | TNT / FuboTV / ESPN+ |
💰 Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total (O/U) |
| Iowa State Cyclones | -5.5 (-110) | -210 | O 50.5 (-110) |
| Arizona State Sun Devils | +5.5 (-110) | +175 | U 50.5 (-110) |
Implied Probabilities:
- Iowa State 65.6%
- Arizona State 34.4%
ClutchBuzz Line Movement: Iowa State opened -4.5, steamed up to -5.5 after quarterback Sam Leavitt was ruled out for Arizona State.
📊 Team Overview
🌪️ Iowa State Cyclones (5–3 Overall, 3–2 Big 12)
| Category | Value | National Rank |
| Points per Game | 29.0 | 67th |
| Points Allowed | 21.8 | 48th |
| Total Offense | 417.1 YPG | 46th |
| Total Defense | 353.4 YPG | 54th |
| Rush Offense | 166.4 YPG | 58th |
| Pass Offense | 250.8 YPG | 47th |
| Turnover Margin | +3 | 37th |
The Cyclones have quietly been one of the most disciplined and balanced teams in the Big 12. Quarterback Rocco Becht has taken a step forward, combining efficiency with improved downfield reads. Iowa State ranks top-40 nationally in 3rd-down conversions and has committed just 33 penalties all year (123rd fewest).
The key has been a versatile rushing duo of Abu Sama III (544 yds, 4 TDs) and Carson Hansen (500 yds, 4 TDs), who together average nearly 140 yards per game. Defensively, ISU continues to thrive under Jon Heacock — the Cyclones’ hybrid 3-3-5 scheme allows the fewest explosive plays in the Big 12 (just 2.1 per game of 20+ yards).
🔱 Arizona State Sun Devils (5–2 Overall, 3–2 Big 12)
| Category | Value | National Rank |
| Points per Game | 24.8 | 90th |
| Points Allowed | 24.3 | 70th |
| Total Offense | 401.9 YPG | 58th |
| Total Defense | 334.6 YPG | 38th |
| Rush Offense | 175.6 YPG | 48th |
| Pass Offense | 226.3 YPG | 75th |
| Turnover Margin | +5 | 29th |
Arizona State’s identity is clear: run the football, control the clock, and pressure the opposing quarterback.
Running back Raleek Brown leads the charge with 706 yards (88.3 per game) on 4.9 yards per carry, complemented by a physical front line that’s helped ASU rank top-50 in rushing yards per game.
However, the offense faces turbulence this week — QB Sam Leavitt (1,628 yards, 10 TDs) is out, and Jeff Sims is set to start. Sims, a mobile dual-threat transfer, brings playmaking upside but turnover risk.
Defensively, ASU’s front has been quietly solid, holding opponents to 119.9 rushing yards per game (36th), but they’ve shown vulnerability to tempo and gap-scheme run fits in losses to Utah and Houston.
⚔️ Head-to-Head & Series Insights
| Last Meeting | Winner | Score |
| 2022 | Iowa State | 31–17 |
| 2020 | Iowa State | 27–20 |
| 2017 | Arizona State | 30–21 |
Series Record: Iowa State leads 3–2 (since 2000).
Average Margin: 7.2 points per game.
Both Teams to Score 20+: 80% of the last five meetings.
🧠 Key Player Matchups
| Player | Team | Role | 2025 Stats |
| Rocco Becht (QB) | ISU | 63.7% CMP, 1,933 YDS, 10 TD, 6 INT | |
| Abu Sama III (RB) | ISU | 544 YDS, 4 TD | |
| Brett Eskildsen (WR) | ISU | 409 YDS, 3 TD, 19.5 YPR | |
| Jeff Sims (QB) | ASU | 62% CMP (2023 stats), strong mobility, prone to fumbles | |
| Raleek Brown (RB) | ASU | 706 YDS, 3 TD, 88.3 YPG | |
| Jordyn Tyson (WR) | ASU | 628 YDS, 8 TD (Questionable – Hamstring) |
📉 Statistical Comparison
| Category | ASU | ISU |
| Total Yards per Game | 401.9 | 417.1 |
| Total Yards Allowed | 334.6 | 353.4 |
| Turnovers Forced | 12 | 14 |
| Third Down % | 38% | 46% |
| Red Zone TD Rate | 61% | 69% |
| Time of Possession | 29:42 | 31:10 |
📈 Betting Trends
| Trend | Record |
| Iowa State is 7–3 ATS in last 10 home games | ✅ |
| Arizona State is 2–6 ATS in its last 8 road games | ❌ |
| The Under is 5–2 in ISU’s last 7 Big 12 home games | ✅ |
| ASU has hit the Under in 6 of its last 8 away | ✅ |
| ISU 5–1 when allowing fewer than 24.8 points | ✅ |
🔎 Situational Breakdown
First Half Outlook:
Expect a slow start — both teams prefer scripted drives and long possessions. Iowa State averages 10.2 points in the first half, while ASU averages 9.7.
Second Half Outlook:
The Cyclones’ offense tends to open up later in games. They’ve scored on 64% of 3rd-quarter possessions in home wins this season, compared to ASU’s 33%.
Key to the Game:
If ISU holds ASU below 150 rushing yards, the Cyclones have a 78% win probability (historically under Matt Campbell).
💡 Best Prop Bets
| Market | Pick | Odds | Reason |
| Raleek Brown Over 84.5 Rushing Yards | ✅ | -115 | Heavy workload w/ Leavitt out |
| Rocco Becht Over 1.5 Passing TDs | ✅ | +125 | ASU’s secondary allowed 11 pass TDs |
| Iowa State Team Total Over 26.5 | ✅ | -110 | Balanced attack + home advantage |
| First Half Under 24.5 | ✅ | -120 | Both teams start methodical |
| Iowa State -2.5 1H Spread | ✅ | +100 | Better situational efficiency |
🎯 Same-Game Parlay (SGP)
| Leg | Pick |
| Iowa State ML (-210) | |
| Under 50.5 (-110) | |
| Raleek Brown Over 84.5 Rush Yards | |
| Becht Over 1.5 Passing TDs | |
| Iowa State -2.5 (1H) |
💵 Projected Odds: +625
🔥 Medium Risk – High Return Play
🏁 Final ClutchBuzz Iowa State vs. Arizona State Prediction
The Cyclones’ discipline and defensive structure should give them a slight but clear edge. With Arizona State missing Sam Leavitt and possibly Jordyn Tyson, the Sun Devils will lean heavily on the run — but that plays into ISU’s strength. Expect the Cyclones to grind this one out behind Becht’s poise and a balanced rushing attack.
Final Score Prediction:
🌀 Iowa State 27 – Arizona State 20
✅ Best Bets:
- Iowa State -5.5
- Under 50.5
- Raleek Brown Over 84.5 Yards
- Becht Over 1.5 Passing TDs
