CUSA football goes under the Wednesday night lights in Las Cruces, New Mexico, where the Missouri State Bears (3-3) visit the New Mexico State Aggies (3-3) at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
Both teams sit at .500, and both are looking for consistency as conference play deepens. The Bears are short road favorites at -1.5, backed by a passing game that averages over 260 yards per contest. The Aggies, meanwhile, continue to find balance behind quarterback Logan Fife, leaning on an improving ground game after a sluggish start to the year.
Expect a competitive, possession-driven matchup between two mid-tier CUSA programs still finding their identity.
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📺 Where to Watch Missouri State vs. New Mexico State? (October 22)
| Detail | Info |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 22, 2025 |
| Time: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| Venue: | Aggie Memorial Stadium — Las Cruces, NM |
| TV: | CBS Sports Network |
| Stream: | Fubo (Free Trial) |
💰 Betting Odds
| Market | Line |
| Spread | Missouri State -1.5 |
| Moneyline | Missouri State -115 • New Mexico State -105 |
| Total (O/U) | 51.5 points |
Implied Score: Missouri State 26.5 – New Mexico State 25.0
📊 Team Overview
| Category | Missouri State Bears | New Mexico State Aggies |
| Record | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Points Per Game | 21.7 (110th) | 23.0 (98th) |
| Points Allowed | 29.7 (107th) | 24.0 (66th) |
| Total Offense | 367.5 yds/g (84th) | 324.3 yds/g (106th) |
| Passing Offense | 264.5 yds/g (39th) | 257.7 yds/g (47th) |
| Rushing Offense | 103.0 yds/g (127th) | 66.7 yds/g (136th) |
| Total Defense | 394.8 yds/g allowed (99th) | 381.0 yds/g allowed (86th) |
| Turnover Margin | 0 (67th) | +3 (40th) |
🔍 Matchup Breakdown
Missouri State Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
- Missouri State’s air attack ranks 39th in the FBS, averaging 264.5 yards per game behind quarterback Jacob Clark.
- The Bears’ problem? A stagnant rushing game — just 3.2 yards per carry, among the worst nationally.
- New Mexico State’s defense ranks top 25 in red-zone efficiency, allowing scores on just 76.5% of opponent trips.
- Expect Clark to look early and often toward Dash Luke and Ramone Green Jr., but the Aggies’ pass rush (4 sacks from Ezra Christensen) could be disruptive.
New Mexico State Offense vs. Missouri State Defense
- The Aggies’ passing game (257.7 yds/g) has been steady, and QB Logan Fife enters with 1,512 yards and 8 TDs.
- The Aggies rank 136th in rushing yards per game, but that number is misleading — they’ve averaged 120+ yards in their last two outings.
- Missouri State’s defense allows 151.2 yards per game on the ground, so Kadarius Calloway could provide balance.
- The Bears’ secondary has been leaky (243.7 yds allowed per game, 105th in FBS), making this a good matchup for Fife’s top target, Donovan Faupel, who leads the team with 363 yards.
🧠 Key Players to Watch
Missouri State Bears
- QB Jacob Clark: 1,195 yards, 8 TD, 6 INT, 65.2% completion
- RB Shomari Lawrence: 349 yards, 2 TD, 4.5 YPC
- WR Dash Luke: 24 receptions, 335 yards, 2 TD
- LB Kanye Young: 23 tackles, 2 TFL, 1 sack
New Mexico State Aggies
- QB Logan Fife: 1,512 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT
- RB Kadarius Calloway: 242 yards, 3 TD, 3.7 YPC
- WR Donovan Faupel: 26 receptions, 363 yards, 2 TD
- DL Ezra Christensen: 23 tackles, 5 TFL, 4 sacks
📈 Betting Trends
| Team | ATS Record | O/U Record | Key Notes |
| Missouri State | 3–3 | 1–5 | 1–1 ATS as favorite of ≥1.5 |
| New Mexico State | 3–3 | 3–3 | 3–2 ATS as underdog of ≥1.5 |
| Combined O/U Avg | — | — | Both teams combine for ~54 points/game (slight lean Over) |
🎯 Updated Best Bets & Insights
1️⃣ Spread — New Mexico State +1.5
- Both teams are 3–3 ATS, but the Aggies have covered in three of five as underdogs.
- NMSU’s red-zone defense and turnover margin (+3) tilt efficiency in their favor.
- Missouri State plays at a very slow pace, giving fewer possessions and smaller scoring margins — perfect for a home dog cover.
✅ Pick: New Mexico State +1.5
2️⃣ Total — Over 51.5
- MSU games average 56.8 points; NMSU’s average 50.5.
- Both teams have hit the Over in multiple games with pass-first scripts.
- Missouri State’s pass defense is exploitable, and both QBs can throw downfield.
✅ Pick: Over 51.5
3️⃣ Moneyline — Missouri State (-115)
- The Bears are 2–0 when favored this season, while the Aggies are 2–3 as underdogs.
- A close game on paper: MSU’s implied win probability 53.5%, NMSU’s 51.2%.
- Slight lean to the team with the more polished passing attack.
✅ Pick: Missouri State ML (-115)
⚙️ Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop | Pick | Reason |
| Logan Fife Passing Yards 263.5 | Under | Has stayed under in 5 of 6; pace of play limits volume |
| Donovan Faupel Anytime TD | Yes | Leads team in targets and red-zone looks |
| Shomari Lawrence Rushing Yards 65.5 | Under | Bears average only 3.2 YPC |
| Ezra Christensen 0.5+ Sack | Yes | MSU protection struggles on 3rd-and-long |
🧩 ClutchBuzz Same-Game Parlay
| Leg | Selection |
| 1️⃣ | New Mexico State +1.5 |
| 2️⃣ | Over 51.5 |
| 3️⃣ | Donovan Faupel Anytime TD |
| 4️⃣ | Logan Fife Under 263.5 Passing Yards |
| Est. Odds: | +750 |
Alternate safer combo (+425): NMSU +1.5 / Over 51.5 / Faupel 40+ Receiving Yards.
🧮 Model Projection
| Category | Projection |
| ATS Pick | New Mexico State +1.5 |
| O/U Pick | Over 51.5 |
| Moneyline Lean | Missouri State (-115) |
| Predicted Score | Missouri State 27 – New Mexico State 26 |
| Confidence | Spread ⭐⭐⭐⭐ • Total ⭐⭐⭐⭐ • ML ⭐⭐⭐ |
🏁 Final ClutchBuzz Missouri State vs. New Mexico State Prediction
Expect a tense back-and-forth contest where neither offense dominates, but both find enough explosive passing plays to keep the scoreboard active. The Bears have the edge in QB polish, yet the Aggies’ home-field comfort and red-zone defense keep things razor-close.
Final Score: Missouri State 27, New Mexico State 26
Picks: New Mexico State +1.5 • Over 51.5 • Missouri State ML (-115)
