The NC State vs LSU Sweet 16 matchup on Friday night is more than just a rematch—it’s a high-stakes collision between two championship-caliber programs with unfinished business. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET at Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena and will air on ESPN as part of the 2025 NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament.
No. 2 seed NC State (28–6) and No. 3 seed LSU (30–4) have met once already this season—a convincing Tigers win in the Bahamas. But this time, the stakes are higher, the players are sharper, and the Wolfpack are out to rewrite the narrative.
In this extended breakdown of NC State vs LSU, we dive into the key matchups, betting odds, storylines, and a final prediction for one of the most anticipated games of the NCAA Sweet 16. Click here to learn more about women’s March Madness.
🏀 NC State vs LSU Game Information
- Matchup: No. 2 NC State Wolfpack vs No. 3 LSU Tigers
- Date: Friday, March 28, 2025
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Location: Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena, Spokane, WA
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: WatchESPN.com, ESPN App
- Radio: SiriusXM & local affiliates
📊 NC State vs LSU Betting Odds & Trends
| Sportsbook | Spread | Moneyline | Total (O/U) |
| DraftKings | LSU -3.5 | LSU -167 / NC State +140 | 153.5 points |
- ESPN Matchup Predictor: LSU 63.8% win probability
- NC State ATS Last 10: 6-4
- LSU ATS Last 10: 5-5
- Total Under in Last 10 NC State Games: 6
LSU opened as a 2.5-point favorite. As of Thursday afternoon, the spread has grown to LSU -3.5, suggesting rising public confidence in the Tigers’ firepower.
🔁 NC State vs LSU: Season Series Recap
The Tigers beat the Wolfpack 82–65 on Nov. 23 in the Baha Mar Pink Flamingo Championship. LSU dominated the paint (+20 rebounding margin), shot 52.7% from the field, and held NC State to under 36%. Aneesah Morrow was unstoppable—posting 20 points and 15 boards.
Since that early-season clash, however, NC State has evolved. The Wolfpack have gone 17–2 in their last 19 games, restructured their interior rotation, and are playing with championship-level composure.
🔍 Key Storylines: NC State vs LSU Sweet 16 Breakdown
1. Can NC State Slow the Tempo?
LSU’s offense ranks among the most lethal in the nation, averaging 85 points per game. Kim Mulkey’s Tigers thrive in transition and punish teams that don’t get back on defense. However, NC State is built to disrupt that rhythm.
Head coach Wes Moore prefers methodical sets, ball control, and smart shot selection. If the Wolfpack can control tempo and limit turnovers, they’ll force LSU into an uncomfortable half-court battle.
2. Backcourt Brilliance: Rivers & James vs Johnson & Williams
NC State’s backcourt duo of Saniya Rivers and Aziaha James has been outstanding during March Madness. Rivers, the defensive anchor and transition disruptor, complements James’ shot-making and off-ball movement.
LSU’s Flau’Jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams bring their own firepower, combining for over 30 points per game. Expect a back-and-forth showdown with real WNBA implications.
3. Morrow vs The Pack: Round 2
Aneesah Morrow torched NC State in November. But since then, freshmen Tilda Trygger and Lorena Awou have emerged as key contributors. NC State’s frontcourt has become more physical and disciplined, and Madison Hayes, an undersized forward, is one of the tournament’s most underrated defenders.
Hayes leads the team in rebounds (7.3 per game) and plays with relentless intensity. In her own words:
“You’re not going to bully me the whole game. You want to keep coming in here, then I’m going to show you why you don’t want to.”
🧠 Statistical Comparison: NC State vs LSU
| Category | NC State | LSU |
| Record | 28–6 | 30–4 |
| Points Per Game | 77.1 | 85.0 |
| Points Allowed | 64.6 | 66.2 |
| Rebound Margin | +4.1 | +8.6 |
| Turnovers Forced | 15.7 | 17.9 |
| Recent Record (Last 10) | 8–2 | 7–3 |
💰 NC State vs LSU Betting Picks
✅ NC State +3.5
The spread reflects LSU’s earlier dominance, but the Wolfpack are a different team now. They’ve improved on the boards, tightened their defense, and found consistent offensive balance. Four-star value here.
✅ Under 153.5 Total Points
Wes Moore will look to slow down the Tigers. Expect fewer possessions, especially early. A first-half under could also be in play.
✅ Player Prop: Aneesah Morrow Under 20.5 Points
Morrow has scored under 21 points in 10 of her last 14 games. With a heightened defensive focus and fewer transition chances, the under offers solid value.
🔮 NC State vs LSU Prediction
Final Score Prediction: NC State 70, LSU 69
The Wolfpack are poised for revenge. Their four-guard system creates mismatches, and their recent run suggests they can handle adversity. If NC State can keep LSU under 40% shooting and limit second-chance points, they’ll have a shot to win outright.
The Tigers’ championship experience and elite talent give them the edge on paper, but this feels like a toss-up—and NC State is peaking at the right time.
🏆 What’s Next?
The winner of NC State vs LSU advances to the Elite Eight to face either Stanford or Indiana on Sunday, March 30, with a Final Four spot in Tampa on the line.
