October got off to a tough start for both the Cyclones and the Hawkeyes, as both took a tough loss in conference play. Most people expected Iowa to lose, given that the Hawkeyes faced defending Big Ten champion Michigan.
Still, Iowa State came up against Kansas with a perfect opportunity to get back on track and even its record in the Big 12.
Instead, the Cyclones lost and now find themselves in a very tight spot. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes suddenly face a very tough stretch of the schedule with a trip to a resurgent Illinois on the slate. Here’s what we can take away from last week’s showings from Iowa and Iowa State.
Iowa State Gave This Game Away
At Lawrence, Kansas, doesn’t want the facts to get in the way of a good story. The Jayhawks are basking in being 5-0 for the first time since Mark Mangino was the Kansas coach and College GameDay visiting Lawrence this week, and it’s hard to blame them. But that said, Iowa State had absolutely no business losing to Kansas.
That’s because the Cyclones again proved to be their own worst enemy. Iowa State didn’t hurt its cause with penalties like it did against Baylor, but turnovers and failed execution killed the Cyclones against Kansas. Once again, the Cyclones hurt themselves with two Hunter Dekkers interceptions, and they added three missed field goals to the mix.
To make matters worse, these were not particularly tough kicks. A 45-yarder isn’t easy, but it’s makeable, and in today’s game, a college kicker should convert almost every kick from inside 40 yards. Iowa State left nine points on the field from Jace Gilbert’s misses, and Kansas turned one miss into its first touchdown drive. Going 1-for-4 does not cut it, as Iowa State has no margin for error in the Big 12.
This league is just too balanced for the Cyclones to keep leaving points on the field.
First half frames 📸
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— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) October 1, 2022
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The Cyclones’ Defense Played Outstanding
At this point, you might be able to make a convincing case that Iowa State has the best defense in the state over Iowa because the Cyclones again came up big on that side of the football. Kansas wanted to run the ball against Iowa State and Kansas couldn’t do it. The Jayhawks average 6.1 yards per carry, but Iowa State held them to 3.6.
When Jalon Daniels tried to go the air, that didn’t work either. The Kansas quarterback completed just half of his passes, and the Jayhawks ended up with just 213 yards of offense for the day. Kansas got going on one touchdown drive, which came after Gilbert’s first missed field goal of the day.
Other than that, the Jayhawks’ only bursts of offense came after Dekkers set them up in the red zone with an interception.
And that makes Saturday’s loss in Lawrence even more frustrating for Iowa State: the defense did everything necessary to win the game. When you hold a team to under 250 yards of offense, you have no excuse for losing that game.
The Cyclones’ defense did everything expected of it to hold Kansas in check for almost 60 minutes. It remains to be seen if Iowa State holds up against the likes of Oklahoma State, but so far, Matt Campbell has a first-rate defense.
Final from Lawrence.
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— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) October 1, 2022
Hunter Dekkers Has a Long Way to Go
Dekkers’ play on Saturday is exactly why college athletes are meant to spend four to five years in one place. Occasionally, you get a truly special player who’s ready to dominate on Day 1, but most of the time, freshmen need time to learn how to play at the college level.
Dekkers did not play well against Kansas by any stretch of the imagination, and he made two more costly mistakes that helped hand the game to the Jayhawks.
But it’s far too early for Iowa State to think about moving on from him. Dekkers has flashed plenty of potential in just five games as the starter, and if he continues to make progress over the next 11 months, Iowa State will have a much better situation in the 2023 season.
However, that doesn’t help anything right now, especially with Kansas State coming to Ames this week.
Truthfully, that last sentence should really make Campbell and the Cyclone faithful nervous.
The Wildcats are probably the last team Iowa State wants Dekkers to see right now, as he’s had two tough days in a row and K-State boasts the most opportunistic defense in the Big 12 to this point. Only USC, Memphis and UNLV have a better turnover margin than the Wildcats’ plus-8, which means K-State isn’t going to beat itself.
For the Cyclones to have a chance at either winning the game or covering the 2-point spread, Dekkers will have to take care of the football. Handing Kansas State any free possessions is a death sentence, and the Cyclones have been far too generous with the football with nine turnovers already.
𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐨𝐧𝐝.
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— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) September 30, 2022
Michigan Provided a Blueprint to Beating Iowa
A week after Iowa used a non-replicable blueprint to handle Rutgers, Michigan turned the tables on Iowa — and the scary thing for the Hawkeyes is that the way the Wolverines won this game is very repeatable for other Big Ten teams.
The Wolverines decided early on that the way they’d beat Iowa’s vaunted defense was to keep it on the field as much as possible. Most teams don’t want to do that because Iowa often has a better chance to score with its defense than its offense, but Michigan proved content to take four or five yards at a time, grind out first downs and keep the Hawkeyes’ defense on the field.
And it worked. Michigan had the ball for 30 of the game’s first 45 minutes, and the Wolverines built a 20-0 lead through three quarters. When Michigan finally moved off its grind-it-out strategy, the Hawkeyes simply didn’t have enough time left to mount any kind of comeback.
That’s a worry because Illinois just beat up Wisconsin in the trenches last week in its 34-10 win in Madison, and the Badgers have long been the gold standard in the Big Ten West alongside the Hawkeyes for physical play.
The Illini had to be watching what Michigan did to Iowa, and Illinois running back Chase Brown probably thinks that he can do the same thing Blake Corum did. If he’s right, Iowa won’t stand a chance against Illinois.
LET'S GO HAWKS!#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/LknZW0pxtH
— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) October 1, 2022
Iowa’s Offense Again Proved Useless Until the End
Maybe desperation is the way that Iowa’s offense needs to play because the Hawkeyes were again toothless in the first three quarters before finally getting something going in the game’s final 15 minutes. Of course, by then it was too late and the Hawkeyes’ cause was sunk.
At this point, Iowa has to at least try to open things up earlier. The Hawkeyes are already losing games to good teams because they can’t get anything going in the first half (Iowa got shut out again in the first half, and the Hawkeyes’ offense is averaging 1.2 points in the first half this season), so what’s the point of playing conservative and hoping that the defense bails them out?
Maybe that will work against Indiana or Michigan State, but Indiana and Michigan State aren’t on this year’s schedule. Three of Iowa’s next four opponents are teams who know how to score. The Hawkeyes can’t win these games without getting some points on the board, even with this defense as good as it is.
The Hawkeyes rank 130th in the nation in the total offense right now, and the only reason that isn’t last in the nation is that James Madison moved up to FBS this year, so there are now 131 FBS teams (Colorado State is the one offense worse than Iowa’s).
The solution probably isn’t coming this year, but Iowa’s got to try something to jump-start that side of the ball.
K✌️@Kj_Superman2 x #Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/bVVorARUWK
— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) October 1, 2022
How Long Can the Defense Hold On In This League?
Traditionally in the Big Ten, the changing weather means teams have to get more physical and go to the ground more in the later part of the season. That’s worked to Iowa’s benefit in past years, as the Hawkeyes have gone 13-3 in the second half of the season in Kirk Ferentz’s past three seasons.
But here’s the catch: Iowa still had something resembling competence on offense during most of those stretches. The Hawkeyes never beat teams with huge numbers, but they still could be counted on to score in the 20s and 30s and let the defense do the rest.
Iowa has only made it above 15 points twice in five games this season, and one of those came because Rutgers surrendered two defensive touchdowns to the Hawkeyes. Only Nevada has allowed Iowa’s offense to get to 20 points this year, and that’s not going to work as the season progresses.
Eventually, the time on the field is going to wear on the defense if the offense doesn’t start to carry even some portion of its load. Iowa has to find a solution somewhere if it’s going to reach its 10th consecutive bowl game.
Road Trip 🚌 💼#Hawkeyes pic.twitter.com/stu2rH6tIu
— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) October 4, 2022
Credits: Collin Franklin hauls in a catch
