The lights shine brightest on Monday Night Football, and when that happens — Patrick Mahomes usually steals the show. The two-time NFL MVP and three-time Super Bowl champion heads to Jacksonville as the Kansas City Chiefs (2–2) take on the Jaguars (3–1) in a pivotal Week 5 matchup.
After a vintage four-touchdown performance against Baltimore, Mahomes looks locked in — and bettors are already circling his Anytime Touchdown prop (+295) as one of the most intriguing markets of the night. He’s found the end zone on the ground in two of four games this season, averaging over 32 rushing yards per game, and facing a Jacksonville defense that thrives against traditional runners but can get caught by scrambling quarterbacks.
If you think Mahomes will once again take matters into his own hands near the goal line, this might be the perfect time to strike. Let’s break down the data, matchup trends, and betting edges that make Mahomes’ Anytime TD worth a second look under the primetime lights in Florida.
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📺 Where to Watch Jaguars vs. Chiefs? (October 6)
| Category | Details |
| Date: | Monday, October 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 PM ET |
| Venue: | EverBank Stadium — Jacksonville, FL |
| Broadcast: | ABC / ESPN |
| Streaming: | Fubo (regional restrictions may apply) |
Check more betting props in DraftKings.
📌 Headline Market
Anytime TD: +295
(Bet $10 to win $29.50 profit if Mahomes scores via rush or reception.)
Key supporting props (current market ranges):
| Market | Line | Over Payout |
| Passing Yards | 249.5 | -112 |
| Rushing Yards | 22.5 | -109 |
| Passing TDs | 1.5 | -152 |
| Rush Attempts | 4.5 | -120 |
🔎 Why the TD makes sense (at this price)
- Designed & scramble equity: Mahomes has 22 carries for 130 yards (5.9 YPC) and 2 rushing TDs through 4 games—he’s scored on the ground in 2 of 4 (Weeks 1–2).
- Goal-to-go usage: KC frequently leans on QB keepers/read options in compressed red-zone space, especially if the RB run fits stall or the TEs occupy defenders.
- Matchup shape: Jacksonville’s defense is excellent overall (18.0 ppg allowed), elite vs. the run (82.8 ypg; 2nd) and top-10 in red-zone TD rate allowed (44.4%)—which often pushes KC to extend plays and create with Mahomes’ legs near the stripe.
- Game environment: Tight spread (-3.5) means maximum four-quarter Mahomes with high-leverage red-zone snaps.
📊 TD Probability vs. Price (Value Check)
From your season & opponent data:
| Outcome | Player 2025 | League Avg | vs Jaguars | CB Model |
| 1+ Rushing TD | 50.0% | 36.0% | 0% | 35.8% |
- Book’s implied probability at +295: ~25.3%
- Our model: ~35.8%
Edge: Model > Price by ~10.5 percentage points → Positive EV at +295.
ClutchBuzz Grade: A- for Anytime TD at +295.
🧾 Mahomes 2025 Profile
| Stat | Value |
| CMP/ATT | 87 / 142 |
| Comp% | 61.3% |
| Pass Yards | 939 |
| Pass TD / INT | 7 / 1 |
| Yards/Att | 6.6 |
| Rush Att / Yds / TD | 22 / 130 / 2 |
TD Log
| Week | Opponent | Pass TDs | Rush TDs |
| 1 | @ Chargers | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Eagles | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | @ Giants | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | Ravens | 4 | 0 |
🧠 Matchup Micros: JAX D vs. QB Run Threat
| Defensive Split (JAX) | Value | Rank |
| Points Allowed/G | 18.0 | 4th |
| Total Yds Allowed/G | 316.3 | 16th |
| Pass Yds Allowed/G | 233.5 | 23rd |
| Rush Yds Allowed/G | 82.8 | 3rd |
| Yards/Play Allowed | 5.3 | 7th |
| 3rd Down Allowed | 45.6% | 28th |
| Red-Zone TD Allowed | 44.4% | 4th |
Read: The Jags are stingy in the red zone and vs. traditional runs. That often funnels KC to Mahomes improvisation—rollouts, scrambles, QB draws—especially inside the 10.
📈 Correlated Angles
1) Mahomes Rushing Yards Over 22.5 (-109)
- He’s averaging 32.5 rush yds/g, and designed movement plus scramble lanes appear when the Jags squeeze intermediate windows.
2) Rush Attempts Over 4.5 (-120)
- Usage trend + game leverage = 5–7 attempts path (scrambles + 1–2 designed).
3) Passing TDs Over 1.5 (-152)
- If you prefer a safer anchor, this pairs well with the rushing angles in SGPs without capping QB TD equity.
🧵 SGP (Ladder-Lite), Correlated to Legs + Production
- Mahomes Anytime TD (+295)
- Mahomes 20+ Rush Yds (alt)
- Mahomes 200+ Pass Yds (alt)
Why it works: Pressure → scrambles; JAX covers well → extended plays; KC volume sustains passing floor.
(Optional sprinkle if your book offers it: “Mahomes 2+ TDs (passing)” as a separate hedge—not in the same SGP if you’re keeping variance controlled.)
🧮 Fantasy Angle (PPR/QB)
- Projection: 18.8 fantasy points
- Form: 62.6 points over last three (20.9/g), with 73 rush yards & 1 rush TD in that span.
- Start confidence: Locked-in QB1; rushing adds floor in a tougher red-zone matchup.
✅ ClutchBuzz Best Bets (Ranked)
- Mahomes Anytime TD (+295) — 0.6u
- Price > implied. Two rushing TDs already; high-leverage role persists.
- Mahomes Rushing Yards Over 22.5 (-109) — 0.6u
- Correlated with the TD path; scrambling likely vs sound coverage.
- Mahomes Rush Attempts Over 4.5 (-120) — 0.4u
- Attempts volume supports both props above.
- Mahomes Passing TDs Over 1.5 (-152) — 0.5u
- Separate angle if you prefer arm over legs; also works as a hedge across exposures.
