Monday night in Jacksonville sets up perfectly for a Travis Etienne Jr. spotlight game.
The Jaguars are home, the run game is humming, and Kansas City’s otherwise-stout defense has been most giveable on the ground.
If you’re eyeing Etienne Anytime TD or building an SGP for the Monday night Jaguars vs. Chiefs game here’s the clean, data-backed breakdown you need.
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📺 Where to Watch Jaguars vs. Chiefs? (October 6)
| Category | Details |
| Date: | Monday, October 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 PM ET |
| Venue: | EverBank Stadium — Jacksonville, FL |
| Broadcast: | ABC / ESPN |
| Streaming: | Fubo (regional restrictions may apply) |
Check more betting props in DraftKings.
📌 Headline Market
Anytime TD: +105
(Bet $10 to win $10.50 profit if Etienne scores any TD rushing OR receiving.)
Other Popular Etienne Props (Consensus ranges):
| Market | Line | Over Payout |
| Rushing Yards | 64.5 | -112 |
| Receiving Yards | 12.5 | -113 |
| Rush Attempts | 14.5 | -120 |
| Receptions | 2.5 | +146 |
🧠 Why Etienne TD Makes Sense
- Usage & Form: 65 carries for 394 rush yards (98.5/g), 6.1 YPC, 2 rush TDs, plus 6 receptions, 32 yards, 1 rec TD. He’s scored in 3 of 4 games (2 rush, 1 rec).
- Matchup Fit: Jaguars are 4th in rushing offense (144.0/g). Chiefs’ run D is 22nd in yards allowed (127.0/g) and 27th in yards per carry allowed (4.9).
- Game Script: Leaning tight/low-ish total (45.5). Home team likely emphasizes ground game, ball control, and red-zone touches for RB1.
- Red Zone Lens: JAX red-zone TD rate is modest (50%), but Etienne owns the high-leverage usage. KC’s red-zone defense is good (9th), yet the weak point remains interior run fits.
📊 Etienne TD Trackers
TD Game Log (2025)
| Week | Opponent | Rush TDs | Rec TDs |
| 1 | Panthers | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | @ Bengals | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Texans | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | @ 49ers | 1 | 0 |
Season Snapshot
| Carries | Rush Yds | Rush TD | YPC | Targets | Receptions | Rec Yds | Rec TD |
| 65 | 394 | 2 | 6.1 | 10 | 6 | 32 | 1 |
📐 Probability Edge
Provided baseline rates + matchup-adjusted outlooks:
| Outcome | Player 2025 | League Avg | vs Chiefs Avg | CB Model |
| 1+ Rushing TD | 50.0% | 36.0% | 42.9% | 46.5% |
| 1+ Receiving TD | 25.0% | 24.2% | 18.8% | 23.3% |
Combined Anytime TD probability (assuming partial independence):
1 − (1 − 0.465) × (1 − 0.233) ≈ 59%
- Break-even for +105 is 48.8%.
- Model edge: ~59% vs 48.8% ⇒ Positive expected value.
ClutchBuzz Grade: A− for Anytime TD at plus money.
🧩 Matchup Micros
Chiefs Run D vs. Etienne’s Profile
| Metric | Chiefs D | Rank | Etienne / JAX |
| Rush Yds Allowed/G | 127.0 | 22nd | JAX rush 144.0 (4th) |
| Yards/Carry Allowed | 4.9 | 27th | Etienne 6.1 |
| RZ TD% Allowed | 54.5% | 9th best | JAX RZ 50% (Etienne featured) |
Read: KC swarms the pass (top-10 vs pass), but is average-to-leaky vs run. That funnels the Jags’ plan toward Etienne early and late, with goal-line/green-zone opportunities intact.
📈 Volume Trends (Last 3 Games)
| Stat | Value |
| Carries | 49 |
| Rush Yards | 251 |
| Rush TDs | 2 |
| Receptions | 3 |
| Rec Yards | 19 |
| Rec TD | 1 |
He’s cleared 70+ rushing yards in 3 of 4 games — consistent chunk gains and sustained workloads.
🧮 Fantasy Angle (PPR Baseline)
- Proj: 13.3 fantasy points
- Week 4: 18.5 (19–124–1)
- Role: Locked-in RB1 with goal-line access + light receiving sprinkle. Automatic start.
🎯 Best Bets (Ranked)
- Anytime TD (+105) – 1.0u
- Model ~59% hit rate > +105 break-even 48.8%.
- Alt Rushing Yards 70+ (+110) – 0.6u
- Correlates to JAX script; he’s 3/4 on 70+.
- Rush Attempts Over 14.5 (-120) – 0.5u
- Home dog + ball control = sustained volume.
- Receptions Over 2.5 (+146) – 0.25u sprinkle
- Chiefs pressure → dump-offs/screens; price-driven.
🧵 Same Game Parlay (Correlated)
- Etienne Anytime TD (+105)
- Etienne 60+ Rush Yds (alt)
- Chiefs/Jaguars Under 51.5 (alt)
Est. Combined: ~+425 to +500 (shop around)
Why it works: If Etienne is rolling on the ground, clock bleeds, total stays manageable, and his TD equity spikes.
🏁 ClutchBuzz Verdict
Bet it: Travis Etienne Anytime TD (+105)
Everything aligns: form, usage, matchup, and price. In a game where Jacksonville’s best path is on the ground, Etienne should push 18–22 touches with multiple red-zone chances.
Our numbers show real EV at plus money — take it and consider a modest ladder on the rushing yards.
