Monday Night Football brings another electric primetime showdown — and all eyes are on rookie speedster Xavier Worthy, who’s quickly becoming Patrick Mahomes’ favorite deep threat. The Kansas City Chiefs (2–2) head to Jacksonville to face the 3–1 Jaguars, and while the focus may be on Mahomes’ MVP resurgence and Travis Kelce’s red-zone magic, Worthy is quietly emerging as a sneaky anytime touchdown sleeper at +150.
After a breakout game against Baltimore — catching five passes for 83 yards — the former Texas standout looks poised to carve up the Jaguars’ 23rd-ranked pass defense. With Mahomes starting to rebuild chemistry in a retooled receiving corps, Worthy’s ability to stretch the field could pay off big under the lights in Florida.
He’s yet to find the end zone this season, but the matchup metrics tell a different story. Jacksonville has already allowed seven touchdown receptions through four games and two 100+ yard receivers — and with Kansas City’s offense heating up, Worthy’s first NFL touchdown could be just one perfectly timed post route away.
Let’s break down the odds, trends, and fantasy implications behind Worthy’s +150 anytime TD line — and see if the rookie’s primetime debut is worth a wager.
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📺 Where to Watch Jaguars vs. Chiefs? (October 6)
| Category | Details |
| Date: | Monday, October 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 PM ET |
| Venue: | EverBank Stadium — Jacksonville, FL |
| Broadcast: | ABC / ESPN |
| Streaming: | Fubo (regional restrictions may apply) |
Check more betting props in DraftKings.
📊 Xavier Worthy Anytime TD Prop Odds
| Sportsbook | Anytime TD Odds | Implied Probability |
| FanDuel | +150 | 40.0% |
| DraftKings | +145 | 40.8% |
| BetMGM | +155 | 39.2% |
💡 Bet $10 to win $15.00 if Worthy scores a touchdown.
📈 Player Performance Breakdown
| Category | Stat | NFL Rank |
| Receptions | 5 | — |
| Targets | 9 | — |
| Receiving Yards | 83 | — |
| Yards per Catch | 16.6 | — |
| Touchdowns | 0 | — |
| Fantasy Points (Week 4) | 12.1 | — |
Worthy has played in just two games so far this season, but his efficiency stands out — averaging 16.6 yards per catch and emerging as Mahomes’ go-to downfield option. With aDOT (average depth of target) north of 15 yards, he profiles as a high-upside red-zone and big-play threat every time he’s on the field.
🧮 Worthy TD Conversion Trends
| Category | Worthy | League Avg | vs. Jaguars | Prediction |
| 1+ Receiving TDs | 0% | 24.2% | 27.3% | 35% chance to score |
While Worthy has yet to record his first touchdown, the Jaguars’ secondary has allowed an opposing receiver to score in every game this season. With increased red-zone snaps in Kansas City’s three-wide sets, Worthy’s breakout could happen here.
💬 Recent Game Log
| Week | Opponent | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs |
| Week 1 | @ Chargers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Week 4 | Ravens | 8 | 5 | 83 | 0 |
📊 Worthy’s Week 4 target share (17%) was second on the team behind Travis Kelce — a strong sign of trust developing between Mahomes and the rookie.
⚔️ Matchup: Chiefs vs. Jaguars Secondary
| Stat | Jaguars Defense | NFL Rank |
| Pass Yards Allowed per Game | 233.5 | 23rd |
| Passing TDs Allowed | 7 | 27th |
| Yards per Pass Attempt Allowed | 6.0 | 8th |
| 20+ Yard Passes Allowed | 12 | 25th |
Jacksonville’s defense has been vulnerable to vertical threats — particularly on play-action and motion-heavy formations. That fits perfectly with how Kansas City has started using Worthy, motioning him into mismatches against slot corners and safeties.
🧠 Fantasy Outlook
| Category | Value |
| Projected Fantasy Points | 10.4 |
| Fantasy WR Rank (2025) | WR87 |
| Targets/Game | 4.5 |
| Yards/Game | 41.5 |
| Red Zone Targets | 2 |
Worthy is still searching for his first touchdown, but his yards-after-catch burst and growing target volume make him a strong DFS flex play and a sneaky TD prop candidate this week.
🧩 Prop Betting Market Overview
| Prop | Line | Odds | ClutchBuzz Pick |
| Anytime TD | +150 | ✅ Best Value | |
| 1st TD Scorer | +1100 | 🎯 Longshot Play | |
| Receiving Yards | 55.5 | Over (-114) | |
| Receptions | 4.5 | Over (-117) | |
| Longest Reception | 21.5 | Over (-110) |
ClutchBuzz Insight: With his explosive afterburners and increasing chemistry with Mahomes, Worthy’s Over 55.5 receiving yards pairs well with his Anytime TD at +150 for a same-game parlay (+350 total value).
💵 ClutchBuzz Same Game Parlay (SGP) – Chiefs vs. Jaguars MNF
Monday Night Football in Jacksonville has all the ingredients for an electric primetime matchup — elite quarterback play, explosive playmakers, and a pair of defenses that bend but rarely break. If you’re building your SGP around Xavier Worthy’s first career touchdown, here’s the ClutchBuzz-approved combo:
| Leg | Prop | Odds |
| Xavier Worthy Anytime TD | +150 | |
| Patrick Mahomes 250+ Passing Yards | -115 | |
| Travis Etienne 60+ Rushing Yards | -120 | |
| Total Points Over 45.5 | -110 |
💰 Total Parlay Odds: +900
🎯 $10 Bet → $100 Potential Return
🧠 Parlay Breakdown
- Xavier Worthy Anytime TD (+150): The rookie is overdue. He’s seen an expanded role since Week 4 and now draws a Jaguars secondary that’s allowed seven receiving TDs already this season.
- Patrick Mahomes 250+ Passing Yards (-115): Mahomes has cleared this number in three of four games and just torched Baltimore for 270 and 4 TDs. Jacksonville’s zone-heavy defense often concedes chunk plays between safeties — perfect for Worthy and Kelce cross routes.
- Travis Etienne 60+ Rushing Yards (-120): Etienne ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards (394) and faces a Chiefs front allowing 127 per game (22nd). Jacksonville’s best chance to control tempo is on the ground.
- Total Points Over 45.5 (-110): Both offenses are rounding into form — Kansas City just scored 37 vs. Baltimore, while Jacksonville’s averaging 26 points over its last two games.
This parlay balances risk and realism, blending Mahomes’ aerial dominance with Etienne’s steady production and Worthy’s breakout potential. It’s built for bettors who want one ticket to ride the momentum of Monday Night Football from kickoff to the final whistle.
🏁 Final ClutchBuzz Prediction
Patrick Mahomes lights up the Jaguars for another multi-touchdown night, spreading the ball to Kelce and Worthy in a balanced offensive attack. Jacksonville keeps it close behind Etienne’s running, but Kansas City’s depth proves too much late.
✅ SGP Pick: Worthy TD + Mahomes 250+ + Etienne 60+ + Over 45.5
💰 Best Line: FanDuel Sportsbook (+900)
🏆 Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Jaguars 23
