Get our Jannik Sinner vs. Jesper de Jong prediction and betting preview for the 2025 ATP Rome Round of 32. See head-to-head stats, betting tips, prop bets, and best parlay picks.
World No. 1 Jannik Sinner looks to continue his perfect season as he takes on Dutch qualifier Jesper de Jong in the Round of 32 at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia on Monday, May 12, 2025, at Foro Italico in Rome, Italy.
Sinner marked his return to the tour with a clinical 6-3, 6-4 win over Mariano Navone, showing no signs of rust after a three-month absence. The 2025 Australian Open champion has now won 22 straight matches, dating back to his triple-title sweep at the end of last season (Shanghai, ATP Finals, Davis Cup).
De Jong, however, is making waves of his own. The Dutch lucky loser stunned 25th seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina with a 6-0, 6-2 demolition in just 68 minutes. With two impressive wins under his belt, De Jong arrives with confidence and nothing to lose.
Sinner leads the head-to-head 1-0, having defeated De Jong in straight sets at the 2024 Australian Open. While Sinner is the overwhelming favorite, De Jong’s fearless play and clay-court momentum could make this matchup more competitive than the odds suggest.
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📺 Where to Watch Jannik Sinner vs. Jesper de Jong? (May 12, 2025)
| Match Day | Monday, May 12, 2025 |
| Time | TBA |
| Location | Foro Italico, Rome, Italy |
| Surface | Outdoor Clay |
| TV | Tennis TV |
| Streaming | TennisTV App |
💸 Betting Odds
| Favorite | Jannik Sinner (-2000) |
| Underdog | Jesper de Jong (+850) |
| Implied Win Probability | Sinner 95.2%, De Jong 10.5% |
📊 Player Form Comparison
| Player | Sinner | De Jong |
| World Rank | 1 | 93 |
| 2025 Match Record | 7-0 | 6-5 |
| 2025 Set Record | 21-2 | 13-10 |
| 2025 Aces per Match | 8.4 | 5.9 |
| 2025 Break Points Won | 30 | 17 |
| Career Titles | 19 | 0 |
| Career W/L Record | 270-80 | 6-11 |
| Career Prize Money | $39,389,088 | $1,037,438 |
🏆 Head-to-Head History
| Meetings | Winner | Surface | Score | Year |
| 1 Match | Sinner leads 1-0 | Hard (Australian Open) | Straight Sets | 2024 |
🎾 Recent Performances
Jannik Sinner
- Defeated Navone 6-3, 6-4 in R64
- 22-match winning streak since September 2024
- 2025 Australian Open Champion
Jesper de Jong
- Upset D. Fokina 6-0, 6-2 in R64
- 13-9 clay record in 2025
- Best career run at a Masters 1000 event
🧠 Tactical Breakdown
- Sinner: All-around dominance, elite returning, and powerful groundstrokes.
- De Jong: Aggressive baseliner with nothing to lose and growing confidence on clay.
Expect Sinner to control the pace with his depth and shot tolerance, but De Jong could sneak in extra games if he serves well.
🎯 Prop Bets to Watch
| Market | Pick | Odds (Example) |
| Match Result | Sinner to Win 2-0 | -400 |
| Total Games | Over 17.5 | -110 |
| First Set Score | 6-3 Sinner | +275 |
| Most Aces | Sinner | -250 |
🏆 Parlay Suggestion
| Leg | Odds (Example) |
| Sinner to Win 2-0 | -400 |
| Over 17.5 Total Games | -110 |
| First Set Score 6-3 Sinner | +275 |
| Combined Parlay Odds | +450 |
🔮 Jannik Sinner vs. Jesper de Jong Prediction
Sinner’s class and form should see him through comfortably, but De Jong’s clay confidence could push the total over 17.5 games. Expect Sinner to control both sets, but don’t rule out a spirited challenge from the Dutchman.
Prediction:
Jannik Sinner to Win in 2 Sets with Over 17.5 Games
Best Bet:
- Sinner to Win 2-0
- Over 17.5 Games
