Get the full Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Vegas 106.
Two knockout-prone middleweights collide at UFC Vegas 106 as Dustin Stoltzfus returns to the Octagon to take on surging Uzbek finisher Nursulton “Black” Ruziboev. With both men coming off statement wins by KO, and neither known for their defense, oddsmakers are expecting fireworks.
Stoltzfus, 33, brings a grappling-heavy skill set and a history of scrappy performances. Ruziboev, meanwhile, is one of the most experienced fighters on the card with 35 career wins and a violent finishing instinct. Expect chaos.
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📺 Where to Watch UFC Vegas 106: Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev? (May 17, 2025)
| 🗓 Date | Saturday, May 17, 2025 |
| 🕗 Time | Main Card starts 8:00 p.m. ET |
| 📍 Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| 📡 Broadcast | ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win % |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | -298 | 74.9% |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | +240 | 29.4% |
| Fight Outcome | Odds |
| Fight to End by KO/TKO | -185 |
| Fight Goes Distance | +300 |
📏 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Dustin Stoltzfus | Nursulton Ruziboev |
| Record | 16-6-0 | 35-9-2 (2 NC) |
| Age | 33 | 31 |
| Height | 6’0″ | 6’5″ |
| Reach | 75″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:40 | 6:17 |
| Strikes Landed Per Min | 3.47 | 2.75 |
| Striking Accuracy | 44% | 44% |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Min | 3.29 | 3.78 |
| Takedown Avg/15 min | 2.31 | 0.60 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 41% | 85% |
| Takedown Defense | 46% | 15% |
| Submission Attempts/15m | 1.1 | 0.6 |
🔍 Why Nursulton Ruziboev Will Win
- ✅ Power, reach, and aggression. At 6’5”, Ruziboev will have a 5-inch height advantage and a track record of finishing fights early.
- ✅ KO momentum: 3 of his last 4 wins have come by knockout, including a Round 2 finish over Eric McConico.
- ✅ Explosive offense: His 85% takedown accuracy paired with dangerous ground-and-pound makes him a threat everywhere.
💡 If Ruziboev stays aggressive and prevents takedowns early, he’s likely to get a clean finish by Round 2.
🔍 Why Dustin Stoltzfus Will Win
- ✅ Superior grappler: Stoltzfus averages 2.3 takedowns per 15 mins with over 1 submission attempt per fight.
- ✅ Chin tested: He’s fought tougher competition and recently knocked out Marc-Andre Barriault in Round 1.
- ✅ Durability and grind: If he can absorb early pressure and get this into the later rounds, cardio and wrestling edge go his way.
💡 Stoltzfus needs to drag this fight to the mat and wear Ruziboev out to score an upset via decision or late sub.
💣 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop | Odds |
| ✅ Fight to End by KO/TKO | -185 |
| ❌ Fight to Go the Distance | +300 |
| ⏱ Ruziboev by KO/TKO in Round 1 | +150 |
| 🛑 Stoltzfus to Win by Submission | +500 |
| 🔁 Fight Ends in Round 2 | +275 |
🧪 Same Fight Parlay (ClutchBuzz Pick)
- ✅ Ruziboev to Win
- ✅ Fight Ends Inside the Distance
- ✅ Over 1.5 Rounds
📊 Odds: +245
💰 $25 wager pays out ~$86
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev Prediction
🥊 Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev by KO/TKO (Round 2)
🔮 Confidence Level: 7.5/10
Stoltzfus has the edge in grappling, but Ruziboev’s power, aggression, and early finishes make him the sharper pick here. Expect a scrappy opening few minutes before “Black” uncorks a finishing sequence in Round 2. If it hits the ground, Stoltzfus has a live shot, but it may be too little, too late.
