Get the full Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Vegas 106.
A battle between two determined strawweights unfolds at UFC Vegas 106 as veteran Elise Reed takes on the rising Brazilian prospect Denise “Dee” Gomes.
With Gomes entering as a heavy favorite, Reed has a massive opportunity to pull off one of the biggest upsets of the night and shake up the division.
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📺 Where to Watch UFC Vegas 106: Elise Reed vs Denise Gomes ? (May 17, 2025)
| 🗓 Date | Saturday, May 17, 2025 |
| 🕖 Time | Main Card – 8:00 p.m. ET |
| 📍 Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| 📡 Broadcast | ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win % |
| Elise Reed | +425 | 19% |
| Denise Gomes | -575 | 84.4% |
| Fight Outcome | Odds |
| Fight Goes Distance | -165 |
| Gomes by Decision | -110 |
| Reed by Decision | +700 |
| Gomes Inside the Distance | +135 |
📏 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Elise Reed | Denise Gomes |
| Record | 8-4-0 | 10-3-0 |
| Age | 32 | 25 |
| Height | 5’3″ | 5’2″ |
| Reach | 63″ | 63″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:30 | 11:52 |
| Strikes Landed Per Min | 3.50 | 4.55 |
| Striking Accuracy | 53% | 50% |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Min | 3.15 | 3.11 |
| Striking Defense | 53% | 51% |
| Takedown Avg/15 Min | 0.49 | 0.67 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 60% | 25% |
| Takedown Defense | 56% | 67% |
| Submission Avg/15 Min | 0.6 | 0.9 |
🔍 Why Denise Gomes Will Win
- ✅ Higher pace & aggression – Gomes averages more strikes per minute and consistently pushes the pace.
- ✅ Youthful edge – At 25, she’s entering her prime and continues to sharpen her tools with every appearance.
- ✅ Recent success vs. veterans – Her dominant win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz shows she can handle experienced competition.
💡 Expect Gomes to march forward with pressure and keep Reed on the back foot, mixing strikes and clinch control to dominate rounds.
🔍 Why Elise Reed Will Win
- ✅ Striking accuracy advantage – Reed lands a crisp 53% of her shots and showcased high-volume success vs. Jessica Penne.
- ✅ Underdog momentum – With little to lose, Reed may fight with more freedom and confidence than expected.
- ✅ Good takedown efficiency – 60% takedown accuracy and solid defensive reads can neutralize Gomes’ grappling if it goes to the mat.
💡 If Reed can weather early storms and make it a technical striking match at range, she can find success round by round.
💣 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop | Odds |
| ✅ Fight Goes Distance | -165 |
| 📝 Gomes by Decision | -110 |
| ⚡ Gomes Inside the Distance | +135 |
| 🧨 Reed by Decision | +700 |
| ❌ Under 2.5 Rounds | +145 |
🧪 Same Fight Parlay (ClutchBuzz Pick)
- ✅ Denise Gomes to Win
- ✅ Fight Goes Distance
- ✅ Gomes to Land 60+ Total Strikes
📊 Odds: +185
💰 $50 wager pays ~$142.50
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes Prediction
🥊 Pick: Denise Gomes by Decision
🔮 Confidence Level: 8/10
Gomes is the far more active striker and has shown she can hang with seasoned names in the division. Reed is tough, technical, and accurate—but lacks the power and volume to deter Gomes’ forward momentum. Expect a gritty three-round affair where Gomes earns a clear 30-27 or 29-28 on all cards.
📌 Reed is durable, but “Dee” is dynamic. Look for Gomes to control the tempo from bell to bell and walk away with a convincing unanimous decision win.
