The welterweight spotlight shines bright in Las Vegas as Brazil’s Gabriel “Marretinha” Bonfim collides with Jamaica’s Randy “Rudeboy” Brown in the UFC Vegas 111 main event.
Bonfim enters ranked #20, riding a three-fight win streak that includes a statement victory over Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. Across from him stands the seasoned Brown, ranked #14, who’s found new rhythm in his career with four wins in his last five.
It’s a matchup of youthful explosiveness vs veteran precision, submission mastery vs long-range striking, and both men know a win here could vault them toward the top 10 of a stacked welterweight division.
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📺 Where To Watch Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown? (November 8, 2025)
| Detail | Info |
| Event | UFC Vegas 111 |
| Venue | UFC Apex — Las Vegas, NV |
| Date | Saturday, November 8, 2025 |
| Start Time | Main Card 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT |
| Broadcast | ESPN+ |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Method of Victory | Over/Under 2.5 Rounds |
| Gabriel Bonfim | -175 (Favorite) | Bonfim by Decision +180 | Over 2.5 (-135) |
| Randy Brown | +145 (Underdog) | Brown by KO/TKO +400 | Under 2.5 (+105) |
⚖️ Tale of the Tape
| Gabriel Bonfim | Randy Brown | |
| Nickname | “Marretinha” | “Rudeboy” |
| Record | 18-1-0 | 20-6-0 |
| Age | 28 (🇧🇷 Brazil) | 35 (🇯🇲 Jamaica) |
| Height | 6’1″ (185 cm) | 6’3″ (191 cm) |
| Reach | 72.5″ (184 cm) | 78″ (198 cm) |
| Camp | Bonfim Brothers / Cerrado MMA | Budokan Martial Arts Academy |
| Strikes Landed per Minute | 4.54 | 4.47 |
| Striking Accuracy | 45% | 47% |
| Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.53 | 3.26 |
| Takedowns per 15 min | 4.03 | 0.77 |
| Takedown Accuracy / Defense | 55% / 76% | 39% / 73% |
| Submission Attempts / 15 min | 1.6 | 0.6 |
🟩 Gabriel Bonfim — Keys to Victory
Bonfim is a finisher by nature, holding 16 finishes in 18 career wins — and he’s no stranger to high-pressure moments. After a razor-thin win over Wonderboy, he’s proven he can out-grapple elite opposition while staying calm under fire.
- Grappling pressure: Bonfim averages 4+ takedowns per 15 minutes and seamlessly chains attempts together.
- Submission threat: Whether it’s guillotines, triangles, or back takes, few welterweights transition as fast on the mat.
- Growing boxing: Crisp one-two combinations now serve to set up entries; he’s far more confident exchanging on the feet.
- Game plan: Crowd Brown early, turn the fight into a clinch and ground exchange, and chip away with top-control damage until an opening for a finish appears.
If Bonfim can repeatedly break the distance and keep Brown guessing between level changes and straight rights, his first main-event spotlight could turn into a dominant showcase.
🟥 Randy Brown — Keys to Victory
“Rudeboy” Brown enters with veteran swagger and plenty of momentum. His recent second-round knockout of Nicolas Dalby reminded everyone why his striking is among the smoothest in the division.
- Range control: At 6’3″ with 78″ reach, Brown must weaponize his jab, front kicks, and long right hand to keep Bonfim outside.
- Counter-striking IQ: Brown thrives when opponents force exchanges; his timing on check hooks and knees can punish reckless entries.
- Defensive grappling: With a 73% takedown defense, he’ll need to stay off the cage, circle out, and use frames to avoid prolonged control.
- Cardio & composure: If he stuffs early attempts, he can make Bonfim’s high-pressure style costly over 25 minutes.
Brown’s best chance lies in forcing Bonfim to strike at range, then sniping with clean straight counters and volume body work to slow the Brazilian down.
📈 Recent Form
| Fighter | Opponent | Result | Method | Round |
| Bonfim | Stephen Thompson | Win | Split Decision | R3 |
| Johan Lainesse | Win | Submission (Arm-Triangle) | R1 | |
| Trevin Giles | Win | Submission (Guillotine) | R1 | |
| Nicolas Dalby | Loss | Decision (UD) | R3 | |
| Brown | Nicolas Dalby | Win | KO (R2 Right Hook) | R2 |
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Win | Decision (UD) | R3 | |
| Jack Della Maddalena | Loss | Submission (R1) | R1 | |
| Francisco Trinaldo | Win | Decision (UD) | R3 |
📊 Fight Metrics & Edges
| Category | Edge | Explanation |
| Power & Finishing Threat | Bonfim | Submission rate > 70% win finishes |
| Technical Striking | Brown | Cleaner mechanics + reach advantage |
| Volume & Pressure | Bonfim | Pushes pace with layered attacks |
| Experience & Composure | Brown | 20 UFC fights vs 6 for Bonfim |
| Cardio Over 5 Rounds | Even | Bonfim untested, Brown slower in later rounds |
| AI Win Probability | Bonfim 62% | Brown 38% |
🧠 Fight Analysis
Expect fireworks from the opening minute. Bonfim will look to walk Brown down, cutting angles and forcing clinch exchanges. His top-game suffocates, but closing that distance against a sniper like Brown is no easy feat.
Brown’s objective is clear: maintain range and punish entries. If he can establish the jab-teeps rhythm early, he could frustrate Bonfim and pile up damage.
However, Bonfim’s ability to adjust mid-fight — feinting level changes, mixing strikes into takedowns — makes him dangerous across all three phases. He’s also far more comfortable initiating grappling scrambles than Brown is initiating clinch breaks.
If Bonfim secures early takedowns, look for control time and possible submission attempts to accumulate. If Brown keeps it upright past Round 3, his cardio and countering could make things very interesting down the stretch.
Ultimately, the stylistic balance leans slightly toward Bonfim: he simply has more routes to victory — wrestling, top control, or submission — whereas Brown’s win condition relies on keeping everything standing for 25 minutes.
🎯 Prop Bets & Same-Fight Parlay
| Bet Type | Pick | Odds |
| Fight Goes Distance | Yes | -110 |
| Bonfim by Decision | ✅ Primary Pick | +180 |
| Bonfim by Submission | Value Play | +250 |
| Brown by KO/TKO | Upset Shot | +400 |
| Same-Fight Parlay | Bonfim ML + Over 2.5 Rounds | +115 |
🔮 Final ClutchBuzz Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown Prediction
| Pick | Method | Round |
| Gabriel “Marretinha” Bonfim | Unanimous Decision (49-46) | — |
💬 Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5)
🧾 Bonus Play: Bonfim Moneyline (-175) + Over 2.5 Rounds (-135)
Bonfim’s relentless takedown pressure, submission danger, and steady striking improvement should edge out Brown’s range-based offense over five rounds. Expect a competitive early exchange of styles before Bonfim’s control sequences earn him his first main-event victory in the UFC.
