Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates Prediction: UFC 322 Preview & Betting Picks (Nov 15, 2025)

Once the undisputed king of the welterweight division, Leon “Rocky” Edwards returns to the Octagon with redemption on his mind. The former champion has endured a rocky stretch since his title reign ended, but at UFC 322, he’ll have the chance to prove he’s still elite as he faces the surging Brazilian powerhouse Carlos Prates in a high-stakes main card bout inside Madison Square Garden.

For Edwards, this fight represents a career crossroads. Once known for his composure, technical mastery, and fight IQ, he now finds himself at a make-or-break moment. Two consecutive losses to grappling-heavy opponents (Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady) have raised questions about whether the fire that once made him champion still burns as bright.

Standing across from him will be Carlos Prates, a rising contender with lethal knockout power and the swagger of a fighter on the rise. Prates has been one of the UFC’s most exciting new faces — a rangy, switch-stance striker who can finish fights with a single shot. His devastating first-round knockout of Geoff Neal in August reignited his momentum and placed him firmly in the top 10.

This is a meeting of contrasts: the calculated technician vs the violent artist. Edwards looks to rebuild his path toward title contention, while Prates aims to announce himself as the next great Brazilian finisher in the UFC’s most competitive division.

Are you not sure how to bet on UFC? Check out this guide on how to bet on UFC.

Bet $5 Get $300 in Bonus Bets

• Sign up for a new FanDuel SportsBook account
• Make your first deposit of $5 or more
• Place your first cash wager of $5+ of any type
• Get $300 in Bonus Bets if you win

Claim Bonus

🥊UFC Betting Promos and Bonuses (November 2025)

Where To Watch Leon Edwards vs. Carlos Prates? (November 15, 2025)

💰 Betting Odds 

Prates enters as the favorite due to his knockout streak and athletic peak, but Edwards’ championship experience and grappling pedigree make him a dangerous underdog.

📊 Tale of the Tape

🧠 Fighter Breakdown

🇬🇧 Leon Edwards — “Rocky”

🩸 Former UFC Welterweight Champion

Leon Edwards remains one of the most technically sound fighters in the UFC. A patient southpaw, Edwards uses timing, precision, and distance to dismantle opponents. His kicking arsenal — particularly his linear body kicks and high left head kick — makes him unpredictable at range, while his counter-punching and defensive wrestling round out an elite skill set.

However, Edwards’ recent struggles have come from passivity. Against relentless wrestlers like Belal Muhammad and Sean Brady, his defensive focus allowed rounds to slip away. For a fighter who once shocked the world by knocking out Kamaru Usman with a perfectly timed head kick, regaining urgency and output is critical.

That said, Edwards remains extremely well-rounded. He’s one of the few fighters to have taken down Usman, and his top control and back-take skills are vastly underrated. Against Prates, he’ll need to blend striking and grappling seamlessly — disrupt the Brazilian’s rhythm with feints, level changes, and body attacks before securing control time.

Keys to Victory:

• Maintain long range; frustrate Prates with kicks and jabs
• Mix in takedowns and clinch trips to slow the pace
• Avoid pocket brawls; use back control when grounded

🇧🇷 Carlos Prates — “The Fighting Nerds Standout”

🩸 One of Brazil’s Most Explosive Finishers

Carlos Prates is the embodiment of chaos — a forward-marching knockout artist who thrives on pressure and violence. The Brazilian southpaw is massive for the division, boasting a long frame and one-punch power in both hands. His striking game blends crisp boxing with lethal elbows and knees, making him dangerous at every distance.

Since his arrival in the UFC, Prates has compiled highlight-reel finishes that have turned heads across the division. After a competitive loss to Ian Machado Garry, he bounced back with a spectacular spinning back elbow knockout over Geoff Neal that showcased both creativity and killer instinct.

His weakness lies in defensive grappling. While Prates can scramble quickly to his feet, he sometimes overextends on power shots — leaving himself open to level changes and back control. Against a technically polished opponent like Edwards, maintaining distance discipline will be crucial.

Keys to Victory:

• Cut off the cage with the jab and round kicks
• Force Edwards into extended boxing exchanges
• Stay upright — defend takedowns, punish clinch breaks

⚔️ Tactical Breakdown

This fight is about who dictates range and rhythm.

Edwards is at his best when controlling tempo — flicking jabs, snapping body kicks, and countering off his opponent’s mistakes. Expect him to start slow, gathering reads on Prates’ entries. From there, he’ll look to draw overextensions and capitalize with sharp counters and knees in transition.

Prates, by contrast, wants to turn this into chaos. He’ll aim to back Edwards toward the fence with his jab and looping left hand, then explode with elbows and short hooks once inside the pocket. The danger for Edwards lies in lingering too long after exchanges; Prates is a master at catching fighters as they exit at an angle.

If Edwards can keep the fight at long range or successfully mix in grappling, his path to victory widens considerably. His cardio and composure should allow him to win rounds through control and precision. But if Prates finds his rhythm and starts walking him down, this could become a firefight where one clean shot ends the night.

📈 Fight Metrics Snapshot

💣 Prop Bets & Value Plays

🧩 Intangibles & X-Factors

• Momentum: Prates has the psychological edge after a viral knockout win.
• Experience: Edwards has 10 years of UFC-level experience and title-round composure.
• Durability: Edwards has only been finished once in the past decade; Prates has been knocked out three times.
• Motivation: Edwards publicly stated his goal is two wins away from another title shot — motivation could fuel urgency.

🔮 Final ClutchBuzz Prediction

Summary:
Leon Edwards steadies the ship and reminds the world why he was once champion. Expect a measured, tactical performance built on range control, wrestling mix-ups, and composure under fire. Prates will have moments of danger — especially in early exchanges — but Edwards’ experience and fight IQ should carry him through.

If Edwards maintains focus and avoids standing still on the fence, he can outpoint Prates and earn a unanimous (or close split) decision. However, a single lapse could still change everything — Prates’ left hand remains one of the most dangerous weapons in the division.

Alternative outcome: Prates by knockout (Round 2) — if Edwards retreats in straight lines or tires early under pressure.