It’s a classic grappler vs grinder showdown at UFC 322, as #15-ranked Pat Sabatini takes on the relentless and underrated #21-ranked Chepe “Machine Gun” Mariscal in a featherweight clash that’s flying under the radar — but has all the makings of a war.
Sabatini, one of the most disciplined grapplers in the UFC, comes in after a dominant win over Joanderson Brito, reestablishing himself as a top-tier threat at 145 lbs. Meanwhile, Mariscal continues to surprise critics with his unbreakable pace and durability — carving out a five-fight unbeaten streak since joining the UFC, including a statement win over Ricardo Ramos that showcased his grit and cardio.
Both fighters are known for their toughness, but they approach the fight game from opposite philosophies. Sabatini controls chaos with pressure and positional dominance. Mariscal thrives inside it, wearing opponents down through endless forward motion.
When the cage door closes in Madison Square Garden, expect a chess match drenched in sweat and scrambles — one that could quietly steal “Fight of the Night” honors from the bigger names on the card.
Are you not sure how to bet on UFC? Check out this guide on how to bet on UFC.
🥊UFC Betting Promos and Bonuses (November 2025)
| Sportsbook | Offer | How to Claim? |
| Caesars Sportsbook | 💰 Bet $1, Get Double Winnings on Your Next 10 Bets | Claim here |
| Fanatics Sportsbook | 🔁 Bet & Get Up to $1,000 in No-Sweat Bets | Claim here |
| bet365 Sportsbook | 🎁 Bet $5, Receive $150 in Bonus Bets — Win or Lose | Claim here |
| DraftKings Sportsbook | 🚀 Bet $5, Instantly Unlock $200 in Bonus Bets | Claim here |
| BetMGM Sportsbook | 🏆 First Bet Offer: Bet $10, Win $150 | Claim here |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | ✅ Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins | Claim here |
Where To Watch Pat Sabatini vs. Chepe Mariscal? (November 15, 2025)
| Segment | Platform | Time (ET) |
| Early Prelims | UFC Fight Pass | 6:00 PM |
| Prelims | ESPN / ESPN+ | 8:00 PM |
| Main Card | ESPN+ PPV | 10:00 PM |
| Fight Slot | Prelim Main Event / Early Main Card | ~9:45 PM |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win % |
| Pat Sabatini | -135 | 57.4% |
| Chepe Mariscal | +115 | 46.5% |
Best Value Bets:
- Sabatini by Decision (+150 to +175)
- Mariscal by Decision (+250)
- Over 2.5 Rounds (-190)
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Pat Sabatini | Chepe Mariscal |
| Record | 20–5 | 18–6 (1 NC) |
| Age | 35 | 33 |
| Height | 5’8” | 5’7” |
| Reach | 70” | 69” |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Style | Grappling / Pressure Wrestling | Pressure Boxer / Brawler |
| UFC Ranking | #15 Featherweight | #21 Featherweight |
| Gym | MPR Endurance MMA / Renzo Gracie Philly | Syndicate MMA |
🧠 Fighter Breakdown
🇺🇸 Pat Sabatini (20–5)
🩸 “The Grind Never Lies.”
Pat Sabatini is one of those fighters who doesn’t need flash — he wins with fundamentals. A former CFFC champion and long-time grappling standout, Sabatini’s game is built on control, consistency, and suffocation. He averages nearly 4 takedowns per 15 minutes and completes them at a 48% success rate, among the highest in the division.
While he’s not known for striking volume, Sabatini’s composure and shot timing allow him to transition seamlessly from stand-up to clinch. Once he gets his hands on you, it’s a long night. His top pressure is elite, and his ability to flatten opponents from half guard or ride back positions is textbook.
He enters UFC 322 off his best performance yet — a dominant decision over Joanderson Brito, in which he landed 135 total strikes while limiting Brito to just 27. It was vintage Sabatini: pressure, patience, positional control, and suffocating pace.
Strengths:
- Chain-wrestling mastery; elite grip transitions
- High fight IQ; knows when to advance vs control
- Active ground-and-pound while hunting subs (1.8 per 15 min)
- Composure under fire; rarely panics in scrambles
Weaknesses:
- Limited striking variety — relies on single shots and level changes
- Can struggle against high-pressure knockout artists
- Sometimes too patient when ahead on control time
🇺🇸 Chepe “Machine Gun” Mariscal (18–6, 1 NC)
🩸 “Chaos is my comfort zone.”
Chepe Mariscal has quietly become one of the division’s most entertaining and resilient fighters. His nickname, “Machine Gun,” fits perfectly — he overwhelms opponents with relentless output, landing nearly 5 significant strikes per minute, more than double Sabatini’s rate.
A product of Syndicate MMA, Mariscal brings relentless cardio, sharp boxing combinations, and underrated defensive grappling. While he lacks the elite submission skills of Sabatini, he makes up for it with constant motion and toughness. Against Ricardo Ramos, he outlanded his opponent 125–37 in total strikes and stuffed key takedown attempts with explosive hips.
Mariscal’s durability and pace often turn his fights into wars of attrition. He doesn’t need to dominate — he just keeps chipping away until his opponent fades. Against Sabatini, that grind may need to go to another level.
Strengths:
- Endless pace and pressure; thrives in scrambles
- Better volume striker; confident in exchanges
- Excellent TDD (73%) and fast stand-ups
- Durable and composed even when grounded
Weaknesses:
- Sometimes overcommits and gets countered
- Can be held down by strong positional grapplers
- Relies heavily on toughness to escape bad spots
⚔️ Tactical Breakdown
This is a stylistic tug-of-war — Sabatini wants structure; Mariscal wants chaos.
Expect Sabatini to close the distance early, shoot for singles or body locks, and force fence exchanges. His best path is smothering top pressure and positional control. If he can chain his takedowns together and hold half guard, he’ll neutralize Mariscal’s output advantage entirely.
Mariscal’s path, on the other hand, is built on pace and attrition. He can’t allow Sabatini to settle into control time. Instead, expect him to work short combinations, defend the first layer of takedowns, and force scrambles. Mariscal’s best chance lies in drawing Sabatini into stand-up exchanges where his volume and pressure can dictate the optics for judges.
If the fight hits Round 3 and Sabatini’s takedown attempts start slowing, Mariscal’s pressure and cardio could flip momentum — making this a classic live-bet opportunity for those tracking round swings.
📈 Advanced Stats Snapshot
| Metric | Pat Sabatini | Chepe Mariscal |
| Significant Strikes Landed/Min | 1.87 | 4.95 |
| Striking Accuracy | 62% | 56% |
| Strikes Absorbed/Min | 1.22 | 3.07 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 48% | 39% |
| Takedown Defense | 50% | 73% |
| Submissions/15 min | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Control Time (Avg.) | 6:45 per fight | 2:10 per fight |
💣 Betting & Props Analysis
| Market | Pick | Odds | Rationale |
| Sabatini by Decision | ✅ | +160 | Most likely outcome — steady top control wins minutes |
| Mariscal by Decision | ⚠️ | +250 | Value hedge — possible if Sabatini gasses late |
| Fight Goes Distance | ✅ | -190 | Both durable and stylistically grindy |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | ✅ | -180 | Likely 15-minute scrap |
| Sabatini by Submission | 🔥 | +400 | If Mariscal overextends during scrambles |
🧩 X-Factors
- Rematch history: Mariscal edged Sabatini in 2018 via decision — a wild regional war that featured multiple scrambles. Both fighters have evolved massively since.
- Cardio edge: Slightly favors Mariscal — longer fights favor his tempo.
- Technical edge: Clear advantage to Sabatini in wrestling and positional grappling.
- Momentum: Mariscal’s five-fight UFC streak gives him confidence, but Sabatini’s recent rebound may make him sharper mentally.
🔮 Final Pat Sabatini vs. Chepe Mariscal Prediction
| Pick | Winner | Method | Round | Confidence |
| ✅ Pat Sabatini | def. Chepe Mariscal | Decision (29–28) | High (8/10) |
Summary:
Sabatini’s wrestling pedigree, positional awareness, and patience should carry him through a competitive but controlled fight. Expect Mariscal to push the pace, stuff early takedowns, and make it scrappy — but Sabatini’s chain grappling and ground control are built for three-round battles like this.
The first round will be key. If Sabatini establishes his takedown rhythm early, he’ll smother the fight. If Mariscal can keep it standing and force exchanges, this turns into a cardio test. But in a fight where control time will likely outweigh damage, the pick leans to the veteran grappler.
Final Verdict: Pat Sabatini via Unanimous Decision (29–28 x3)
