Get the full Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC 316.
Two of the UFC’s most dangerous welterweights clash at UFC 316 as Vicente “The Silent Assassin” Luque faces off against Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland in a stylistic battle of power, pressure, and precision. Can Luque shock the odds again, or will Holland’s range and volume control the night?
Let’s break it down.
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📺 Where to Watch UFC 316: Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland? (June 7, 2025)
| Detail | Info |
| 🗓 Date | Saturday, June 7, 2025 |
| 🕕 Main Card | 6:00 PM ET / 3:00 PM PT |
| 📍 Venue | Prudential Center, Newark, NJ |
| 📡 Broadcast | ESPN+ PPV |
💰 Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | KO/TKO | Decision | Submission |
| Kevin Holland | -265 | +225 | +160 | +650 |
| Vicente Luque | +215 | +450 | +550 | +375 |
⚖️ Line Movement: Holland opened around -250 and is now getting heavy action at -265.
🧪 Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Vicente Luque | Kevin Holland |
| Record | 23-10-1 | 27-13-0 (1 NC) |
| Age | 33 | 32 |
| Height | 5’11” | 6’3” |
| Reach | 75” | 81” |
| Weight | 170 lbs | 170 lbs |
| Strikes Landed Per Min | 5.05 | 4.19 |
| Striking Accuracy | 51% | 50% |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Min | 5.22 | 3.10 |
| Striking Defense | 52% | 50% |
| Takedowns per 15 Min | 0.99 | 0.64 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 53% | 37% |
| Takedown Defense | 62% | 54% |
| Sub Attempts / 15 Min | 0.7 | 0.6 |
🔙 Last Fight Recaps
🔇 Vicente Luque
- ✅ Win vs. Themba Gorimbo – R1 Submission (Anaconda Choke)
- Landed 2 of 6 strikes (33%)
- Ended it early with elite grappling instincts
🐾 Kevin Holland
- ✅ Win vs. Gunnar Nelson – Unanimous Decision
- Landed 138 of 178 total strikes (77%)
- Controlled the range, outpaced Nelson with sharp volume and distance control
🔍 Matchup Breakdown
Luque is aggressive and durable, with a killer instinct and 75% finish rate, but he takes damage—5.22 significant strikes absorbed per minute. That’s dangerous against a long, precise striker like Holland, who excels at keeping opponents at range and unloading in volume.
Holland’s six-inch reach advantage is massive here. He’ll likely look to pick Luque apart from the outside and frustrate him with jabs and front kicks. Luque will need to crash the pocket and make this dirty — clinch work, calf kicks, and aggressive counterpunching will be key.
If Luque can close distance, his BJJ and chin give him upset potential. But stylistically, this one leans Holland.
🎯 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop Market | Odds |
| Holland to Win by Decision | +160 |
| Luque to Win by Submission | +375 |
| Fight Goes Distance | -115 |
| Holland Over 100 Total Strikes | +120 |
| Luque to Score a Knockdown | +600 |
💡 Smart Angle: Holland by decision makes sense against a durable vet like Luque
🔥 Dark Horse Play: Luque sub at +375 if he pulls guard or stuns Holland late
💥 ClutchBuzz SGP: Welterweight Chess Match Combo
| Leg | Odds |
| Holland Moneyline | -265 |
| Fight Goes Distance | -115 |
| Holland Over 75 Sig. Strikes | +100 |
💣 3-Leg SGP Payout: +375
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland Prediction
This is one of the most intriguing fights on the UFC 316 undercard. Holland has the tools — range, cardio, and accuracy — to outpoint Luque over three rounds. But “The Silent Assassin” always brings danger. If he can walk through the fire and land something nasty or pull off a slick choke, this could get wild.
✅ Pick: Kevin Holland by Decision (+160)
💸 Best Bet: Fight Goes Distance (-115)
🧨 Upset Alert: Sprinkle Luque by sub if you’re feeling bold
