Check the Storm vs. Mercury prediction for the WNBA matchup on May 23, 2025. See odds, betting picks, injury news, player props and a parlay.
The red-hot Phoenix Mercury (2-0) head to the Pacific Northwest to face the Seattle Storm (1-1) in a Friday night WNBA showdown at Climate Pledge Arena. Tip-off is set for 10:00 p.m. ET, with coverage available on WNBA League Pass and ION.
This is a classic battle between a veteran Seattle squad and a surging Phoenix roster that’s playing inspired two-way basketball. Let’s dive into the numbers and betting angles.
Find the future WNBA Championship odds here and upcoming match schedule here.
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📺 Where to Watch Storm vs. Mercury? (Friday, May 23)
| Platform | Details |
| TV | ION, WNBA League Pass |
| Streaming | FuboTV (free trial available) |
| Location | Climate Pledge Arena (Seattle, WA) |
| Tip-off Time | 10:00 p.m. ET / 7:00 p.m. PT |
💰 Odds & Betting Lines
| Market | Odds |
| Spread | Storm -6.5 |
| Total | 156.5 |
| Mercury ML | +193 |
| Storm ML | -238 |
📊 Key Betting Trends
- Phoenix is 2-0 SU and ATS to start the season.
- Seattle is 1-1 SU and 1-1 ATS, but their only win came against a struggling Dallas team.
- The Mercury have covered as underdogs of 6+ points in 4 of their last 7 games dating back to last season.
- The Under is 6-3 in Seattle’s last nine home games.
🏀 Matchup Breakdown
🔹 Phoenix Mercury
- 🔥 Ranked #1 in scoring defense (72.5 PPG allowed)
- 💪 Outscoring opponents by +12.5 margin
- 🔫 Averaging 85.0 PPG while hitting 46.4% from the floor
- 🚑 Injuries: Kahleah Copper (Knee – Out), Natasha Mack (Back – Out)
Players to Watch:
- Satou Sabally: 25 points vs. LA, 18.5 PPG this season
- Alyssa Thomas: Averaging 7.9 assists last season, playing point-forward role
🔹 Seattle Storm
- 🧱 Top-5 in FG% defense last year (43.5%)
- 💤 Offense still adjusting: 69.0 PPG so far this season
- 🎯 Shot 60% from deep in win vs. Dallas
Players to Watch:
- Nneka Ogwumike: 23 pts, 18 REB vs. Dallas
- Skylar Diggins-Smith: 6.4 AST/game last season
🚑 Injury Report
Seattle Storm
- ❌ Katie Lou Samuelson (Knee) — Out for Season
Phoenix Mercury
- ❌ Kahleah Copper (Knee) — Out
- ❌ Natasha Mack (Back) — Out
🎯 Prop Bets to Watch
| Player | Prop | Odds | Pick |
| Nneka Ogwumike | 20.5 Points | -110 | Over ✅ |
| Satou Sabally | 6.5 Rebounds | -115 | Over ✅ |
| Skylar Diggins-Smith | 5.5 Assists | -105 | Over ✅ |
| Sami Whitcomb | 1.5 Threes Made | +110 | Over ✅ |
| Ezi Magbegor | 2.5 Blocks | +130 | Under ❌ |
📈 Key Stats Comparison (2024)
| Category | Storm | Mercury |
| PPG (2024) | 83.2 | 81.5 |
| Opp. PPG | 78.8 | 84.8 |
| FG% | 43.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.3% |
| Assists/Game | 20.7 | 19.9 |
| Rebounds/Game | 34.7 | 32.3 |
| Turnovers/Game | 12.4 | 13.3 |
🧪 Same Game Parlay (Risky but Fun)
| Leg | Pick |
| Satou Sabally 20+ Points | ✅ |
| Nneka Ogwumike 10+ Rebounds | ✅ |
| Total Under 156.5 | ✅ |
| Mercury +6.5 | ✅ |
| Total Odds (Est.) | +750 |
🔚 Final Storm vs. Mercury Prediction
Mercury 77 – Storm 74
- 📌 Pick: Mercury +6.5
- 📌 Lean: Under 156.5
- 📌 Moneyline Sprinkle: Mercury +193
Phoenix is flying under the radar right now with elite ball movement and team defense. Seattle will need more offensive firepower to cover this wide spread. This game could be tighter than the books are projecting.
