Get the full Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Vegas 106.
A strawweight showdown takes center stage on the UFC Vegas 106 main card as seasoned veteran Tecia “Tiny Tornado” Pennington looks to halt the slide of struggling contender Luana Pinheiro. Pennington, back in full stride following a long layoff, returns to her high-volume, high-pressure approach. Meanwhile, Pinheiro finds herself in must-win territory after three straight defeats to ranked opponents.
Will the veteran savvy of Pennington prevail? Or can Pinheiro summon the explosiveness that once made her a top prospect?
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📺 Where to Watch UFC Vegas 106: Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro? (May 17, 2025)
| 🗓 Date | Saturday, May 17, 2025 |
| 🕖 Time | Main Card – 8:00 p.m. ET |
| 📍 Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| 📡 Broadcast | ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win % |
| Tecia Pennington | -455 | 81.98% |
| Luana Pinheiro | +350 | 22.22% |
| Fight Outcome | Odds |
| Fight to Go Distance | -240 |
| Fight Ends by Decision | -225 |
| Pennington by Decision | -145 |
| Pinheiro by KO/TKO | +800 |
📏 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Tecia Pennington | Luana Pinheiro |
| Record | 14-7-0 | 11-4-0 |
| Age | 35 | 32 |
| Height | 5’1″ | 5’2″ |
| Reach | 60″ | 62″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:53 | 10:44 |
| Strikes Landed Per Min | 4.82 | 3.42 |
| Striking Accuracy | 47% | 40% |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Min | 3.53 | 4.03 |
| Takedown Avg/15 min | 0.57 | 1.65 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 14% | 33% |
| Takedown Defense | 63% | 69% |
| Submission Attempts/15m | 0.1 | 0.7 |
🔍 Why Tecia Pennington Will Win
- ✅ Elite volume striking – Pennington averages nearly 5 significant strikes per minute and landed over 80 in her most recent win over Carla Esparza.
- ✅ Superior cardio and grit – With a 14-fight UFC résumé, Pennington knows how to win gritty decisions against inconsistent opponents.
- ✅ Top-10 tested – Her recent competitive bouts against Ricci and Esparza prove she remains a gatekeeper to the rankings.
💡 If this goes three rounds, Pennington’s pace and consistency are likely to overwhelm the slowing Pinheiro.
🔍 Why Luana Pinheiro Will Win
- ✅ Explosive judo base – Pinheiro excels in bursts with powerful throws and control on the ground.
- ✅ Finishing upside – With 7 finishes in her 11 wins, she has the higher one-shot KO or sub potential.
- ✅ Youth & power edge – At 32, she’s still closer to her athletic prime and could outmuscle the smaller Pennington.
💡 If Pinheiro gets early control or scores a big throw, she could bank rounds or even snatch a finish.
💣 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop | Odds |
| ✅ Fight Goes the Distance | -240 |
| 📋 Pennington by Decision | -145 |
| ⚡ Pinheiro by Submission | +950 |
| ⛔ Fight Ends in Round 1 | +500 |
| 🔁 Over 2.5 Rounds | -250 |
🧪 Same Fight Parlay (ClutchBuzz Pick)
- ✅ Pennington to Win
- ✅ Over 2.5 Rounds
- ✅ Fight to Go the Distance
📊 Odds: +140
💰 $50 wager pays ~$120
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro Prediction
🥊 Pick: Tecia Pennington by Unanimous Decision
🔮 Confidence Level: 7/10
Pinheiro has athletic tools and judo fundamentals, but Pennington is the more polished and consistent technician. Expect the veteran to frustrate Pinheiro with lateral movement, volume striking, and clinch control en route to a clear decision.
📌 Unless Pinheiro catches Pennington early or hits a massive throw, this one likely goes to the cards—and “Tiny Tornado” rolls.
