Get the full Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Vegas 106.
Two worlds collide when experience meets momentum at UFC Vegas 106. On one side stands Paul “BearJew” Craig, the battle-tested submission ace who once terrorized the light heavyweight division with his trademark triangle choke and “Hail Mary” finishes. On the other, Brazil’s Rodolfo “Trator” Bellato, a surging prospect with vicious striking, elite takedown defense, and a hunger to break into the top 15.
After a failed run at middleweight, Craig returns to his old hunting grounds at 205 pounds in what may be a do-or-die moment in his UFC career. But he’s not easing back into the division—he’s being thrown into the fire against Bellato, who has been sharpening his tools and recently survived a brutal war against Jimmy Crute.
This isn’t just a classic striker vs. grappler matchup—it’s a generational showdown. Can the veteran pull off one more miracle on the mat, or will the Brazilian power-puncher continue his rise with a signature knockout? Buckle up—this one could end in a heartbeat.
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📺 Where to Watch UFC Vegas 106: Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig ? (May 17, 2025)
| 🗓 Date | Saturday, May 17, 2025 |
| 🕖 Time | Main Card – 8:00 p.m. ET |
| 📍 Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| 📡 Broadcast | ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win % |
| Rodolfo Bellato | -500 | 83.3% |
| Paul Craig | +380 | 20.8% |
| Fight Outcome | Odds |
| Bellato by KO/TKO | -110 |
| Bellato by Decision | +220 |
| Craig by Submission | +425 |
| Fight Goes Distance | +210 |
| Under 1.5 Rounds | -135 |
📏 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Rodolfo Bellato | Paul Craig |
| Record | 12-2-1 | 17-9-1 |
| Age | 29 | 37 |
| Height | 6’3″ | 6’3″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:40 | 8:20 |
| Strikes Landed Per Min | 6.28 | 2.52 |
| Striking Accuracy | 62% | 44% |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Min | 6.31 | 3.03 |
| Striking Defense | 46% | 43% |
| Takedown Avg/15 Min | 1.06 | 1.01 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 30% | 20% |
| Takedown Defense | 85% | 37% |
| Submission Avg/15 Min | 0.3 | 1.4 |
🔍 Why Rodolfo Bellato Will Win
- ✅ Striking volume and accuracy – Bellato lands over 6.2 significant strikes per minute with a ridiculous 62% accuracy rate.
- ✅ Elite takedown defense – His 85% takedown defense gives him the perfect antidote to Craig’s submission game.
- ✅ Youth, momentum, and durability – Bellato is 8 years younger, hungrier, and has never been submitted or knocked out in the UFC.
💡 If Bellato keeps this on the feet, Craig is in serious trouble. The Brazilian’s precision and pace are built to punish slower grapplers.
🔍 Why Paul Craig Will Win
- ✅ Submission king – With 13 of his 17 wins coming by submission, Craig is one of the most dangerous grapplers at light heavyweight.
- ✅ Veteran trickery – Craig thrives in chaos. He’s turned hopeless positions into jaw-dropping wins more than once.
- ✅ High-risk, high-reward – If Bellato makes even a single mistake on the mat, Craig could wrap him up before he blinks.
💡 Craig’s style may look ugly on paper, but it’s effective. If he drags Bellato to the ground, all bets are off.
💣 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop | Odds |
| Bellato by KO/TKO | -110 |
| Bellato in Round 1 | +140 |
| Craig by Submission | +425 |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | -245 |
| Under 1.5 Rounds | -135 |
🧪 Same Fight Parlay (ClutchBuzz Pick)
- ✅ Rodolfo Bellato to Win
- ✅ Fight Doesn’t Go Distance
- ✅ Bellato 50+ Significant Strikes
📊 Odds: +155
💰 $50 wager pays ~$127.50
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig Prediction
🥊 Pick: Rodolfo Bellato by KO/TKO (Round 2)
🔮 Confidence Level: 9/10
Craig’s only chance is to make this a ground war—and even then, he’ll have to beat the clock against a younger, more precise, and faster opponent. Bellato’s takedown defense and striking accuracy should be more than enough to overwhelm Craig and land a brutal finish.
📌 Unless “BearJew” lands one of his legendary triangles, expect Bellato to batter him with volume and power until the ref steps in.
