Get the full Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Vegas 106.
When experience meets desperation, the result is often fireworks—and that’s exactly what we’re expecting when Jared “Flash” Gordon and Thiago Moises lock horns at UFC Vegas 106. Both fighters enter the Octagon with their backs against the wall: Gordon seeking redemption after a controversial split decision loss, and Moises aiming to prove he still belongs in the mix of top-tier grapplers at 155.
Gordon, a volume striker known for his gritty pace and controversial decisions, has built a UFC resume defined by close calls and near misses. Meanwhile, Moises has shared the cage with some of the division’s most feared names, including Islam Makhachev and Beneil Dariush, carving out a reputation as one of the most durable and tactical Brazilian jiu-jitsu players on the roster.
This fight could be a late-career momentum changer—or a gatekeeping statement. Either way, both fighters have a lot riding on this one.
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📺 Where to Watch UFC Vegas 106: Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises ? (May 17, 2025)
| 🗓 Date | Saturday, May 17, 2025 |
| 🕖 Time | Main Card – 8:00 p.m. ET |
| 📍 Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| 📡 Broadcast | ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win % |
| Jared Gordon | -110 | 52.4% |
| Thiago Moises | -110 | 52.4% |
| Fight Outcome | Odds |
| Gordon by Decision | +120 |
| Moises by Submission | +300 |
| Fight Goes Distance | -300 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | +240 |
📏 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Jared Gordon | Thiago Moises |
| Record | 20-7-0 (1 NC) | 19-8-0 |
| Age | 36 | 30 |
| Height | 5’9″ | 5’9″ |
| Reach | 68″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:16 | 11:10 |
| Strikes Landed Per Min | 5.75 | 2.50 |
| Striking Accuracy | 55% | 41% |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Min | 3.97 | 4.12 |
| Striking Defense | 56% | 53% |
| Takedown Avg/15 Min | 1.78 | 1.46 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 31% | 35% |
| Takedown Defense | 62% | 53% |
| Submission Avg/15 Min | 0.7 | 1.2 |
🔍 Why Jared Gordon Will Win
- ✅ Volume striker – Gordon lands 5.75 significant strikes per minute and keeps constant forward pressure.
- ✅ Durability & cardio – His pace often overwhelms lower-output fighters, especially in 3-round wars.
- ✅ Solid wrestling defense – Stops 62% of takedown attempts and has neutralized grapplers before.
💡 If Gordon can keep this standing and push the pace, he’ll edge out rounds and potentially outwork Moises over three.
🔍 Why Thiago Moises Will Win
- ✅ Elite grappling pedigree – 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes and a black belt under American Top Team.
- ✅ More finishing upside – While Gordon plays the long game, Moises can end things with one slick transition.
- ✅ Durability against top competition – Only loses to ranked killers and has never been submitted in the UFC.
💡 Moises has more tools to win—especially if he mixes in leg kicks and takedowns to throw off Gordon’s rhythm.
💣 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop | Odds |
| Gordon by Decision | +120 |
| Moises by Submission | +300 |
| Fight Goes Distance | -300 |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -330 |
| Moises by Decision | +160 |
🧪 Same Fight Parlay (ClutchBuzz Pick)
- ✅ Fight Goes the Distance
- ✅ Moises to Land 1+ Takedown
- ✅ Gordon to Land 60+ Significant Strikes
📊 Odds: +180
💰 $50 wager pays ~$140
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises Prediction
🥊 Pick: Thiago Moises by Decision
🔮 Confidence Level: 7/10
This is going to be close. Gordon will out-volume Moises, but the Brazilian has the grappling edge and a more diverse path to victory. Expect leg kicks, level changes, and enough control time to swing the judges in Moises’ favor.
📌 Gordon’s best path is via pressure and points, but Moises’ ground game and timing should carry him over the line.
