Get the full Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Vegas 106.
A showdown between rising Brazilian talents takes center stage on the prelims of UFC Vegas 106, as Luana Santos looks to rebound from her first UFC loss against the surging Tainara “Thai Panther” Lisboa. Both women are known for their toughness and well-rounded skill sets, but this matchup comes down to output versus efficiency.
Santos, just 25 years old, has already flashed elite-level potential, with strong grappling and aggressive volume striking. Meanwhile, Lisboa enters riding a five-fight win streak, showcasing slick Muay Thai and an underrated ground game that has earned her two wins inside the Octagon.
With both fighters boasting strong regional pedigrees and proven UFC experience, this all-Brazilian clash could determine who takes the next step toward top-15 contention in a growing division.
Are you not sure how to bet on UFC? Check out this guide from ClutchBuzz on how to bet on UFC.
🥊UFC Betting Promos and Bonuses
| Sportsbook | Offer | How to Claim? |
| Caesars Sportsbook | 💰 Bet $1, Get Double Winnings on Your Next 10 Bets | Claim here |
| Fanatics Sportsbook | 🔁 Bet & Get Up to $1,000 in No-Sweat Bets | Claim here |
| bet365 Sportsbook | 🎁 Bet $5, Receive $150 in Bonus Bets — Win or Lose | Claim here |
| DraftKings Sportsbook | 🚀 Bet $5, Instantly Unlock $200 in Bonus Bets | Claim here |
| BetMGM Sportsbook | 🏆 First Bet Offer: Bet $10, Win $150 | Claim here |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | ✅ Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins | Claim here |
📺 Where to Watch UFC Vegas 106: Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa ? (May 17, 2025)
| 🗓 Date | Saturday, May 17, 2025 |
| 🕖 Time | Prelims – 5:00 p.m. ET |
| 📍 Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| 📡 Broadcast | ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win % |
| Luana Santos | -170 | 62.9% |
| Tainara Lisboa | +142 | 41.3% |
| Prop Market | Odds |
| Fight Goes Distance | -290 |
| Santos by Decision | +110 |
| Lisboa by Decision | +200 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | +200 |
📏 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Luana Santos | Tainara Lisboa |
| Record | 8-2-0 | 7-2-0 |
| Age | 25 | 34 |
| Height | 5’6″ | 5’7″ |
| Reach | 67″ | 67″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:17 | 14:40 |
| SLpM (Strikes Landed) | 4.28 | 2.05 |
| Striking Accuracy | 51% | 50% |
| SApM (Strikes Absorbed) | 4.15 | 1.40 |
| Striking Defense | 61% | 54% |
| Takedown Avg/15 min | 1.62 | 0.78 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 40% | 40% |
| Takedown Defense | 80% | 70% |
| Submission Avg/15 min | 1.2 | 0.5 |
🔍 Why Luana Santos Will Win
- ✅ High Volume Striking – Lands 4.28 strikes per minute, more than double Lisboa’s rate.
- ✅ Offensive Versatility – Mixes in takedowns (1.62 per 15 mins) and submission attempts (1.2 per 15 mins).
- ✅ Youth and Pressure – At just 25, her cardio and pace give her a stylistic advantage in long exchanges.
📊 Santos will look to set a high tempo early and keep Lisboa reacting instead of dictating. If she avoids extended grappling exchanges, she can control the fight on output alone.
🔍 Why Tainara Lisboa Will Win
- ✅ Superior Defense – Absorbs just 1.40 significant strikes per minute, showing elite Muay Thai range control.
- ✅ Composure and Fight IQ – Vast combat sports experience including bouts against world champions like Valentina Shevchenko in Muay Thai.
- ✅ Well-Rounded Skillset – Can hold her own on the mat, landing 40% of takedown attempts with solid positional control.
📊 If Lisboa can manage range, disrupt Santos’ pressure with kicks and well-timed counters, and possibly score late-round grappling control, she could edge the decision.
💣 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop | Odds |
| Fight Goes the Distance | -290 |
| Santos by Decision | +110 |
| Lisboa by Decision | +200 |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -270 |
🧪 Same Fight Parlay (ClutchBuzz Pick)
- ✅ Fight Goes the Distance
- ✅ Santos to Land 60+ Significant Strikes
- ✅ Lisboa to Land 1+ Takedown
📊 Odds: +185
💰 $50 wager pays ~$142
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa Prediction
🥊 Pick: Luana Santos by Decision
🔮 Confidence Level: 6.5/10
Expect a competitive fight between Santos’ forward pressure and Lisboa’s polished defense. The younger fighter’s pace and volume should win her rounds, but don’t count out Lisboa’s ability to slow things down and turn the tide in scrappy grappling exchanges. A close decision seems inevitable.
📌 The pick is Santos on points—but this one might come down to a swing round or two on the judges’ scorecards.
