Get the full Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Vegas 106.
It’s a battle of generations in the UFC Vegas 106 headliner as Ecuador’s undefeated phenom Michael Morales (17-0) faces longtime elite contender Gilbert “Durinho” Burns (22-8). Morales has torn through the welterweight division with clean technique, volume striking, and elite composure. Burns? He’s been to war with the best, but at 38 years old and on a three-fight skid, the odds are stacked against him.
Will this be the passing of the torch or one last dogfight from a proven warrior?
Are you not sure how to bet on UFC? Check out this guide from ClutchBuzz on how to bet on UFC.
🥊UFC Betting Promos and Bonuses
| Sportsbook | Offer | How to Claim? |
| Caesars Sportsbook | 💰 Bet $1, Get Double Winnings on Your Next 10 Bets | Claim here |
| Fanatics Sportsbook | 🔁 Bet & Get Up to $1,000 in No-Sweat Bets | Claim here |
| bet365 Sportsbook | 🎁 Bet $5, Receive $150 in Bonus Bets — Win or Lose | Claim here |
| DraftKings Sportsbook | 🚀 Bet $5, Instantly Unlock $200 in Bonus Bets | Claim here |
| BetMGM Sportsbook | 🏆 First Bet Offer: Bet $10, Win $150 | Claim here |
| FanDuel Sportsbook | ✅ Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets If Your Bet Wins | Claim here |
📺 Where to Watch UFC Vegas 106: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales? (May 17, 2025)
| 🗓 Date | Saturday, May 17, 2025 |
| 🕖 Time | Main Card – 9:00 p.m. ET |
| 📍 Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| 📡 Broadcast | ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win % |
| Michael Morales | -850 | 89.5% |
| Gilbert Burns | +575 | 14.8% |
| Prop Market | Odds |
| Over 3.5 Rounds | -105 |
| Under 3.5 Rounds | -125 |
| Morales by Decision | +120 |
| Burns by Submission | +1000 |
📏 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Michael Morales | Gilbert Burns |
| Record | 17-0-0 | 22-8-0 |
| Last 5 Fights | W-W-W-W-W | L-L-L-W-W |
| Age | 25 (🇪🇨 Ecuador) | 38 (🇧🇷 Brazil) |
| Height | 6’0″ (183 cm) | 5’10” (178 cm) |
| Reach | 79″ (201 cm) | 71″ (180 cm) |
| Strikes Landed/Min | 5.42 | 3.17 |
| Striking Accuracy | 48% | 48% |
| Takedowns/15 Min | 1.02 (41%) | 2.10 (37%) |
| Takedown Defense | 92% | 53% |
| Sub Attempts/15 Min | 0.9 | 0.5 |
🔍 Why Gilbert Burns Will Win
- ✅ World-Class BJJ – One of the best grapplers in the division, with 9 submission wins.
- ✅ Veteran IQ – Has faced the elite: Usman, Chimaev, Brady, Della Maddalena, Wonderboy.
- ✅ Big Dog Energy – Burns has consistently overperformed as a huge underdog.
If Gilbert can close the distance, clinch, and drag Morales down, his grappling could flip the fight. His overhand right remains dangerous in the pocket.
🔍 Why Michael Morales Will Win
- ✅ Undefeated Prospect – 17-0 with 12 finishes and a dominant win over Neil Magny.
- ✅ Elite Takedown Defense – 92% TD defense neutralizes Burns’ Plan A.
- ✅ Striking Volume & Reach – Outlands opponents at over 5.4 significant strikes per minute.
Morales’ jab and distance control will keep Burns from finding momentum. If he keeps it standing, he wins cleanly on points—or breaks Burns down late.
💣 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop | Odds |
| Fight Goes to Decision | +130 |
| Morales via KO/TKO | +165 |
| Burns via Submission | +1000 |
| Morales via Decision | +120 |
| Morales Rounds 3, 4, or 5 KO | +350 |
🧪 Same Fight Parlay (ClutchBuzz Pick)
- ✅ Michael Morales ML
- ✅ Over 1.5 Rounds
- ✅ Fight to End in Rounds 3–5
📊 Odds: +210
💰 $50 wager returns ~$155
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales Prediction
🥊 Pick: Michael Morales by Decision
🔮 Confidence Level: 8.5/10
This is a story we’ve seen before. A battle-tested warrior with fading durability meets an ascending star with speed, size, and momentum. Burns has the skill to make this interesting—but Morales has the reach, youth, and striking volume to keep this controlled from start to finish.
Unless Burns finds a submission in the early rounds, this fight will play out at Morales’ pace. Expect the Ecuadorian to frustrate “Durinho” from range and win a wide decision—potentially even get a late TKO.
📌 Best bet: Morales ML + Morales via Decision. But Burns by submission at +1000 is the wild card every sharp is eyeing.
