Get the full Serghei Spivac vs. Cortes-Acosta prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC 316.
Heavyweight pressure meets precision as Serghei “The Polar Bear” Spivac squares off against Waldo “Salsa Boy” Cortes-Acosta at UFC 316 in Newark. Can Spivac wrestle his way back into the win column, or will Cortes-Acosta’s volume striking write another KO chapter?
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📺 Where to Watch UFC 316: Serghei Spivac vs. Cortes-Acosta? (June 7, 2025)
| Detail | Info |
| 🗓 Date | Saturday, June 7, 2025 |
| 🕕 Main Card | 6:00 PM ET / 3:00 PM PT |
| 🥊 Ring Walks | ~7:20 PM ET |
| 📍 Venue | Prudential Center, Newark, NJ |
| 📡 Broadcast | ESPN+ PPV |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | KO/TKO | Decision | Submission |
| Serghei Spivac | -138 | +550 | +265 | +375 |
| Waldo Cortes-Acosta | +124 | +210 | +650 | +900 |
⚖️ Line Movement: Spivac opened slightly stronger at -135 but remains a narrow favorite.
🧪 Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Serghei Spivac | Waldo Cortes-Acosta |
| Record | 17-5-0 | 13-1-0 |
| Age | 30 | 33 |
| Height | 6’3” | 6’4” |
| Reach | 78” | 78” |
| Weight | 260 lbs | 260 lbs |
| Strikes Landed Per Min | 3.49 | 5.76 |
| Striking Accuracy | 49% | 49% |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Min | 3.77 | 3.47 |
| Striking Defense | 48% | 55% |
| Takedowns per 15 Min | 4.56 | 0.70 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 65% | 50% |
| Takedown Defense | 63% | 66% |
| Submission Attempts / 15 Min | 0.6 | 0.2 |
🔙 Last Fight Recaps
🧊 Serghei Spivac
- ❌ Loss vs. Jailton Almeida – TKO (Round 1)
- Landed 34 of 47 total strikes
- Only 13% of his significant strikes came at distance
- Was overwhelmed by Almeida’s early pressure and top control
🥁 Waldo Cortes-Acosta
- ✅ Win vs. Ryan Spann – KO (Round 2)
- Landed 66 of 111 sig. strikes (59%)
- Dominated at distance (89% accuracy)
- Showed strong finishing instincts and improved composure
🔍 Matchup Breakdown
Spivac is a takedown machine with an average of 4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes. He’ll be looking to neutralize Waldo’s boxing by closing the distance early. His challenge? Cortes-Acosta has shown decent takedown defense (66%) and improves every time out.
On the feet, Waldo throws nearly twice the volume and absorbs less punishment. His power is sneaky, and his ability to fire combinations at range makes him a stylistic nightmare for slower grapplers like Spivac.
Expect Spivac to wrestle early. If he can’t control the fight on the ground, this could become a striking showcase for “Salsa Boy.”
🎯 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop Market | Odds |
| Cortes-Acosta to Win by KO/TKO | +210 |
| Spivac to Win by Decision | +265 |
| Fight Doesn’t Go Distance | -125 |
| Spivac 3+ Takedowns Landed | -110 |
| Cortes-Acosta Over 50 Sig. Strikes | +100 |
💡 Sharp Angle: Cortes-Acosta KO at +210 is getting sharp money
🚨 Risky Play: Spivac submission at +375 could surprise if he controls early
💥 ClutchBuzz SGP: Heavy Hands Combo Parlay
| Leg | Odds |
| Cortes-Acosta Moneyline | +124 |
| Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO | +210 |
| Fight Under 2.5 Rounds | +150 |
🧨 3-Leg SGP Payout: +425
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Serghei Spivac vs. Cortes-Acosta Prediction
This fight hinges on whether Spivac can drag Waldo to the mat early and often. But Cortes-Acosta’s evolving takedown defense and crisp boxing suggest this might not go his way.
✅ Pick: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by KO/TKO (+210)
💣 Lean: Fight Doesn’t Go Distance (-125)
💸 Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds if you like value
