Get the full Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC 316.
UFC 316 continues with a high-stakes showdown in the Bantamweight division, where No. 10-ranked Mario Bautista puts his 7-fight win streak on the line against former Bellator champion Patchy Mix, who makes his long-awaited UFC debut. This clash has title implications written all over it, and fans are already calling it a potential “Fight of the Night.”
Let’s break it all down — odds, tale of the tape, prop bets, and our final ClutchBuzz pick.
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📺 Where to Watch UFC 316: Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix? (June 7, 2025)
| Detail | Info |
| 📍 Location | Prudential Center, Newark, NJ |
| 📅 Date | Saturday, June 7, 2025 |
| 🕕 Time | Main Card starts at 10:00 PM ET |
| 📺 Broadcast | ESPN+ PPV |
💸 UFC 316 Odds – Bautista vs. Patchy Mix
| Bet Type | Odds |
| Mario Bautista ML | +150 |
| Patchy Mix ML | -180 |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -188 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | +145 |
The oddsmakers are backing Mix’s transition into the UFC, but Bautista’s underdog value has serious appeal with his win streak and proven experience.
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Fighter | Mario Bautista | Patchy Mix |
| Record | 15-2 | 20-1 |
| Age | 31 | 30 |
| Height | 5’9” | 5’8” |
| Reach | 72” | 72” |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| UFC Record | 9-2 | UFC Debut |
| Submissions | 6 | 13 |
| Current Streak | 7 Wins | 7 Wins |
🔍 Fighter Breakdown
💥 Mario Bautista: Underrated Contender on Fire
Mario Bautista has been quietly climbing the rankings with impressive wins over Brian Kelleher, Benito Lopez, and most recently, Jose Aldo in a close split decision. Known for his crisp boxing, slick grappling, and cardio-heavy pace, Bautista can do it all — and he thrives in chaos.
He’ll be looking to keep this fight standing and test Mix’s defensive striking, while avoiding scrambles and back-takes where Mix excels.
Path to victory: Mix it up with striking and clinch work, stay off the mat, and win rounds with activity and control.
🧠 Patchy Mix: The Bellator Champ Arrives
Patchy Mix may be new to the UFC, but he’s no rookie. With a 9-1 record in Bellator and 20 wins overall, Mix enters the Octagon with the résumé of a seasoned contender. He’s a BJJ specialist with 13 submission wins, but his striking has improved tremendously, making him a true dual threat.
His transition to the UFC is a major story — and his ability to control opponents on the mat has many wondering if he could be a future title challenger.
Path to victory: Land early takedowns, use control time, and threaten submissions from every position.
🧪 Key Stats Comparison
| Stat | Bautista | Mix |
| Significant Strikes/Min | 4.77 | 3.29 (est.) |
| Takedown Avg per 15 min | 2.37 | 3.02 (Bellator) |
| Submission Avg per 15 min | 1.5 | 3.8 (Bellator) |
| Striking Defense | 63% | ~60% (est.) |
| Takedown Defense | 66% | N/A (UFC debut) |
🧾 Prop Bets to Watch
| Market | Odds |
| Bautista to win by Decision | +250 |
| Bautista to win by Submission | +2000 |
| Mix to win by Submission | +240 |
| Mix to win by Decision | +180 |
| Fight to go the distance | -120 |
| Fight ends by submission | +145 |
Best Value Prop: Mix by Submission (+240) – He’s won 4 of his last 7 by sub and this could be his easiest path to victory.
💥 ClutchBuzz Same Fight Parlay
| Leg | Result |
| Patchy Mix ML | ✅ |
| Fight Ends Inside Distance | ✅ |
| Over 1.5 Rounds | ✅ |
| ✅ Parlay Odds | +330 |
🧠 ClutchBuzz Final Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix Prediction
This is one of the most anticipated debut fights of 2025 — and it’s a rare moment when a debuting fighter walks in as the betting favorite over a ranked contender.
That said, Patchy Mix is the real deal. He’s a slick submission artist, and while Bautista is incredibly well-rounded, he’s vulnerable when he’s forced into scrambles or pressured against the cage. If Mix can time a takedown or even create chaos in transitions, he could finish this.
But don’t count Bautista out. He’s faced elite opponents, fought through adversity, and could win a decision if he keeps the fight on the feet.
✅ Pick: Patchy Mix ML (-180)
🔮 Prop Pick: Mix by Submission (+240)
📢 ClutchBuzz Prediction: Patchy Mix wins by 2nd-round submission
