Get the full Maheshate vs Gauge prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Shanghai.
The lightweight division is on display at UFC Shanghai inside the Mercedes-Benz Arena on Saturday, August 23, 2025, as Chinese prospect Maheshate (10-4) meets American striker Gauge “Gee Money” Young (9-3).
Both fighters are coming off decision losses and are hungry to bounce back. Maheshate has size and reach on his side, while Young brings volume and striking accuracy. This has all the makings of a competitive stand-up battle.
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📺 Where to Watch UFC Shanghai: Maheshate vs Gauge ? (Aug 23, 2025)
| Event | UFC Shanghai |
| Date | Saturday, Aug. 23, 2025 |
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Arena – Shanghai, China |
| Weight Class | Lightweight (155 lbs) |
| Broadcast | ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Probability |
| Maheshate | +115 | ~46% |
| Gauge Young | -135 | ~57% |
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Maheshate | Gauge Young | |
| Age | 25 | 25 |
| Record | 10-4-0 | 9-3-0 |
| Height | 6’0” | 5’9” |
| Reach | 71” | 70” |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 156 lbs |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Avg Fight Time | 11:29 | 15:00 |
| Strikes Landed/Min | 3.86 | 4.83 |
| Striking Accuracy | 29% | 48% |
| Strikes Absorbed/Min | 5.64 | 6.53 |
| Striking Defense | 53% | 44% |
| Takedown Avg | 0.20/15 min | 0.10/15 min |
| Takedown Accuracy | 10% | 10% |
| Takedown Defense | 45% | 64% |
| Sub Attempts | 0.6/15 min | 0.3/15 min |
🔎 Fighter Breakdown
Maheshate
- Strengths:
- Taller, longer frame at lightweight (6’0” with 71” reach).
- Dangerous at distance with straight punches.
- Submissions are part of his toolkit (0.6 attempts per 15 min).
- Weaknesses:
- Low striking accuracy (29%).
- Leaky defense, absorbs 5.6 strikes per minute.
- Struggles with takedown defense (45%).
- Recent Fight: Lost to Nikolas Motta (UD), where he landed 60 of 173 strikes but was outworked by Motta’s 87 of 183.
Gauge Young – “Gee Money”
- Strengths:
- Higher output striker (4.83 SLpM).
- Efficient striker at 48% accuracy.
- Better takedown defense (64%) compared to Maheshate.
- Weaknesses:
- Absorbs a massive 6.5 strikes per minute — wide-open defense.
- No clear finishing threat — often goes to decisions.
- Shorter reach and height disadvantage.
- Recent Fight: Lost to Evan Elder (UD), where he landed 81 of 183 strikes but absorbed 115 of 210.
📈 Betting Trends
- Maheshate: 3 of last 4 fights have gone the distance.
- Young: 4 of last 5 fights have ended in decision.
- Both Fighters: Volume strikers with weak defense → expect heavy exchanges.
🔥 Prop Bets to Target
| Prop Bet | Odds (Est.) | Why It Makes Sense |
| Fight Goes the Distance | -160 | Both men absorb damage but rarely finish at this level. |
| Young by Decision | +150 | Higher volume & accuracy favors a judge’s nod. |
| Maheshate by KO/TKO | +300 | Leverages reach and power if Young’s defense breaks. |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -175 | Both have extended fight times; grinding pace expected. |
📊 $1,000 Bet Payouts
- $1,000 on Maheshate (+115) → $2,150 total ($1,150 profit)
- $1,000 on Young (-135) → $1,740 total ($740 profit)
- $1,000 on Young by Decision (+150) → $2,500 total ($1,500 profit)
- $1,000 on Maheshate by KO (+300) → $4,000 total ($3,000 profit)
🎯 Same-Fight Parlay (ClutchBuzz Special)
| Parlay Legs | Odds (Est.) |
| Young ML (-135) + Fight Goes the Distance (-160) | +220 |
| Maheshate by KO (+300) + Over 1.5 Rounds (-200) | +450 |
🧾 ClutchBuzz Prediction
This fight looks like a striker’s duel where accuracy vs. length will decide the outcome. Maheshate’s height and reach give him an edge, but his low accuracy and weak defense make him vulnerable. Young, meanwhile, throws more and lands nearly half of what he attempts — a key advantage on the scorecards.
🔮 Prediction: Gauge Young via Unanimous Decision
💰 Best Bet: Young ML (-135)
🎯 Prop Bet: Young by Decision (+150)
📈 Same-Fight Parlay: Young ML + Fight Goes the Distance (+220)
