Get the full Rongzhu vs. Hubbard prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Shanghai.
The lightweight division is in focus at UFC Shanghai when Chinese prospect Rongzhu (26-6) faces veteran Austin “Thud” Hubbard (17-9) on Saturday, August 23, 2025, inside the Mercedes-Benz Arena.
This is a fascinating stylistic matchup: Rongzhu is a young volume striker with improving wrestling, while Hubbard brings UFC experience, toughness, and a “good everywhere, great nowhere” skill set. Can the veteran grind out a win in enemy territory, or will Rongzhu deliver in front of the home crowd?
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📺 Where to Watch UFC Shanghai: Rongzhu vs. Hubbard? (Aug 23, 2025)
| Event | UFC Shanghai |
| Date | Saturday, Aug. 23, 2025 |
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Arena – Shanghai, China |
| Weight Class | Lightweight (155 lbs) |
| Broadcast | ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Probability |
| Rongzhu | -252 | ~71% |
| Austin Hubbard | +212 | ~32% |
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Rongzhu | Austin Hubbard | |
| Age | 25 | 33 |
| Record | 26-6-0 | 17-9-0 |
| Height | 5’9” | 5’10” |
| Reach | 71” | 72” |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 156 lbs |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Avg Fight Time | 11:59 | 12:52 |
| Strikes Landed/Min | 5.90 | 3.87 |
| Striking Accuracy | 51% | 43% |
| Strikes Absorbed/Min | 5.51 | 3.82 |
| Striking Defense | 50% | 56% |
| Takedown Avg | 1.56/15 min | 0.8/15 min |
| Takedown Accuracy | 62% | 31% |
| Takedown Defense | 84% | 68% |
| Sub Attempts | 0.2/15 min | 0.1/15 min |
🔎 Fighter Breakdown
Rongzhu
- Strengths:
- High volume striker (5.9 SLpM at 51% accuracy).
- Strong takedown efficiency (62%) with excellent defense (84%).
- Youth, speed, and crowd advantage in Shanghai.
- Weaknesses:
- Defensive liabilities — absorbs 5.5 strikes per minute.
- Still raw in terms of composure against veteran opponents.
- Recent Fight: Beat Kody Steele by unanimous decision, landing 126 of 243 strikes (51% accuracy).
Austin Hubbard – “Thud”
- Strengths:
- Durable veteran with cardio to grind.
- Better strike defense (56%) than Rongzhu.
- Comfortable in the clinch and mixing in takedowns.
- Weaknesses:
- Lower striking output (3.87 SLpM).
- Struggles to dominate without a wrestling edge.
- Susceptible to volume strikers.
- Recent Fight: Lost to MarQuel Mederos (SD) despite landing 62 of 121 total strikes (40% sig. accuracy).
📈 Betting Trends
- Rongzhu: Won 4 of last 5; most wins by decision or striking volume.
- Hubbard: Veteran of 26 pro fights; tends to lose competitive decisions at UFC level.
- Both Fighters: Durable → decision is the most common outcome.
🔥 Prop Bets to Target
| Prop Bet | Odds (Est.) | Why It Makes Sense |
| Fight Goes the Distance | -150 | Both are tough and historically durable. |
| Rongzhu by Decision | +120 | Home crowd, higher output, and accuracy edge. |
| Hubbard by Decision | +350 | Veteran savvy, better defense; live underdog. |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -165 | Grinding fight likely to reach the scorecards. |
📊 $1,000 Bet Payouts
- $1,000 on Rongzhu (-252) → $1,397 total ($397 profit)
- $1,000 on Rongzhu by Decision (+120) → $2,200 total ($1,200 profit)
- $1,000 on Hubbard (+212) → $3,120 total ($2,120 profit)
- $1,000 on Hubbard by Decision (+350) → $4,500 total ($3,500 profit)
🎯 Same-Fight Parlay (ClutchBuzz Special)
| Parlay Legs | Odds (Est.) |
| Rongzhu ML (-252) + Over 2.5 Rounds (-165) | +160 |
| Hubbard ML (+212) + Fight Goes the Distance (-150) | +500 |
🧾 ClutchBuzz Prediction
This matchup comes down to youth and volume vs. experience and defense. Rongzhu throws more, lands at a higher percentage, and has strong takedown defense, making him tough to bully. Hubbard, however, is a veteran who can capitalize on mistakes and may thrive if this turns into a grind.
Still, in front of a home crowd with sharper striking and more weapons, Rongzhu should be able to outwork Hubbard over three rounds.
🔮 Prediction: Rongzhu via Unanimous Decision
💰 Best Bet: Rongzhu by Decision (+120)
🎯 Prop Bet: Fight Goes the Distance (-150)
📈 Same-Fight Parlay: Rongzhu ML + Over 2.5 Rounds (+160)
