Get the full Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for Noche UFC 3.
Middleweights Kelvin Gastelum and Dustin Stoltzfus square off inside the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio as part of UFC Noche 3. Gastelum enters this matchup as a -250 favorite, while Stoltzfus looks to spring an upset as a +210 underdog.
For Gastelum (20-10-0, 1 NC), this fight is a pivotal moment. Once a staple of the UFC’s elite middleweight tier, the 33-year-old southpaw has faced names like Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker, and Jared Cannonier. However, his recent form has left questions about his ability to perform at the highest level. He is looking for redemption after a decision loss to Joe Pyfer.
Stoltzfus (16-7-0), also 33, sees this fight as the biggest opportunity of his career. With a 6’0” frame and a 75” reach, he brings a size advantage, a well-rounded skill set, and a grappling game that could pose problems if Gastelum is flat-footed again. Coming off a decision loss to Nursulton Ruziboev, Stoltzfus needs to prove he can compete with a fighter who has Gastelum’s pedigree.
This clash is as much about Gastelum’s future as it is about Stoltzfus’ chance to make a statement.
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📺 Where to Watch Noche UFC 3: Gastelum vs. Stoltzfus ? (Sep 13, 2025)
| Region | Platform | Start Time |
| United States | ESPN+ (Prelims & Main Card) | Prelims: 3:00 p.m. ET / 12:00 p.m. PT
Main Card: 6:00 p.m. ET / 3:00 p.m. PT |
| International | UFC Fight Pass (availability varies) | Check local listings |
| Venue | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio | Saturday, September 13, 2025 |
Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Kelvin Gastelum | -250 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | +210 |
Tale Of The Tape
| Category | Kelvin Gastelum | Dustin Stoltzfus |
| Record | 20-10-0 (1 NC) | 16-7-0 |
| Age | 33 | 33 |
| Height | 5’9″ | 6’0″ |
| Weight | 185 lbs | 185 lbs |
| Reach | 71″ | 75″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.67 | 3.14 |
| Striking Accuracy | 42% | 45% |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 3.49 | 3.14 |
| Striking Defense | 57% | 47% |
| Takedowns per 15 Min | 1.05 | 1.50 (est.) |
| Takedown Accuracy | 34% | 41% |
| Takedown Defense | 58% | 46% |
| Submission Attempts per 15 Min | 0.1 | 1.3 |
Fighter Breakdown
Kelvin Gastelum
- Strengths: Durable southpaw boxer with fast hands, strong chin, and years of experience against elite opponents.
- Weaknesses: Struggles with output in recent fights, often hesitant to engage, limited wrestling efficiency.
- Recent Fight: Lost to Joe Pyfer via unanimous decision, landing just 33% of significant strikes.
Dustin Stoltzfus
- Strengths: Well-rounded with improving striking accuracy (45%), solid grappling with 1.3 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
- Weaknesses: Lack of finishing power, has been vulnerable to damage against higher-level opposition.
- Recent Fight: Lost to Nursulton Ruziboev via decision, landing 21 significant strikes at 56% accuracy.
Betting Trends
| Trend | Kelvin Gastelum | Dustin Stoltzfus |
| Wins by KO/TKO | 6 | 2 |
| Wins by Submission | 4 | 5 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:40 | 9:18 |
| Decision Record | 9-7 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 Fights | 1-4 | 2-3 |
Prop Bets
| Market | Pick | Odds (Est.) |
| Fight to Go the Distance | Yes | -120 |
| Gastelum by Decision | +150 | |
| Gastelum by KO/TKO | +250 | |
| Stoltzfus by Submission | +400 | |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -145 |
Same-Fight Parlay
| Legs | Pick |
| Kelvin Gastelum to Win | ✔ |
| Fight Over 2.5 Rounds | ✔ |
| Gastelum 50+ Significant Strikes Landed | ✔ |
💰 Projected Parlay Payout: +310
Final Prediction
| Pick | Method | Round |
| Kelvin Gastelum | Decision | 3 Rounds |
ClutchBuzz Take: Gastelum’s experience and toughness should carry him through, but don’t expect a vintage performance. Stoltzfus can make this competitive with grappling exchanges and volume striking, yet Gastelum’s durability and ability to do just enough in exchanges make him the safer pick. Expect a grinding three-round decision in Gastelum’s favor.
