Get the full Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for Noche UFC 3.
The Frost Bank Center in San Antonio will host an intriguing lightweight showdown as Rafa “Gifted” Garcia takes on Jared “Flash” Gordon at UFC Noche 3. With Gordon opening as the betting favorite at -240 and Garcia sitting at +205, this matchup pits youthful grappling pressure against veteran volume striking.
Garcia (17-4-0), at 31 years old, is one of the division’s most relentless wrestlers, averaging over three takedowns per fight with a strong 43% accuracy. He’s coming off an impressive decision win over Vinc Pichel where he landed 64 significant strikes and showed strong cardio over three rounds. Known for forward pressure and submission threats, Garcia thrives when he can dictate grappling exchanges.
Gordon (21-7-0, 1 NC), at 37, is a seasoned UFC veteran with a reputation for toughness, pace, and boxing fundamentals. He lands nearly 5.7 significant strikes per minute with 55% accuracy, far outpacing Garcia’s volume. Fresh off a first-round TKO of Thiago Moises, Gordon enters with momentum and a chance to climb further up the lightweight ladder.
The oddsmakers favor Gordon’s experience and striking, but Garcia’s wrestling and submission arsenal make him a dangerous live underdog. Expect a high-paced battle with contrasting styles that could either end in a grind on the mat or a striking clinic on the feet.
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📺 Where to Watch Noche UFC 3: Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon? (Sep 13, 2025)
| Region | Platform | Start Time |
| United States | ESPN+ (Prelims & Main Card) | Prelims: 3:00 p.m. ET / 12:00 p.m. PT
Main Card: 6:00 p.m. ET / 3:00 p.m. PT |
| International | UFC Fight Pass (availability varies) | Check local listings |
| Venue | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio | Saturday, September 13, 2025 |
Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Rafa Garcia | +205 |
| Jared Gordon | -240 |
Tale Of The Tape
| Category | Rafa Garcia | Jared Gordon |
| Record | 17-4-0 | 21-7-0 (1 NC) |
| Age | 31 | 37 |
| Height | 5’7″ | 5’9″ |
| Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs |
| Reach | 70″ | 68″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.01 | 5.67 |
| Striking Accuracy | 43% | 55% |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Minute | 4.47 | 3.91 |
| Striking Defense | 60% | 56% |
| Takedowns per 15 Min | 3.21 | 1.83 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 43% | 32% |
| Takedown Defense | 77% | 62% |
| Submission Attempts per 15 Min | 0.2 | 0.5 |
Fighter Breakdown
Rafa Garcia (“Gifted”)
- Strengths: Aggressive wrestling, high takedown volume, strong submission game (8 career subs).
- Weaknesses: Absorbs too many strikes (4.47 per minute), sometimes predictable in stand-up.
- Recent Fight: Beat Vinc Pichel by unanimous decision, landing 64 significant strikes with strong grappling control.
Jared Gordon (“Flash”)
- Strengths: High-volume striker with 55% accuracy, veteran experience, and durability.
- Weaknesses: Vulnerable to takedowns if pressured, cardio can fade in grappling-heavy fights.
- Recent Fight: Knocked out Thiago Moises in Round 1, landing 7 of 13 significant strikes.
Betting Trends
| Trend | Rafa Garcia | Jared Gordon |
| Wins by KO/TKO | 1 | 6 |
| Wins by Submission | 8 | 2 |
| Average Fight Time | 13:30 | 10:47 |
| Decision Record | 8-3 | 13-5 |
| Last 5 Fights | 3-2 | 3-2 |
Prop Bets
| Market | Pick | Odds (Est.) |
| Fight to Go the Distance | Yes | -135 |
| Gordon by Decision | +120 | |
| Garcia by Submission | +350 | |
| Gordon by KO/TKO | +280 | |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -140 |
Same-Fight Parlay
| Legs | Pick |
| Jared Gordon to Win | ✔ |
| Fight to Go the Distance | ✔ |
| Gordon 80+ Significant Strikes Landed | ✔ |
💰 Projected Parlay Payout: +260
Final Prediction
| Pick | Method | Round |
| Jared Gordon | Decision | 3 Rounds |
ClutchBuzz Take: Garcia’s grappling gives him a path to upset, especially early, but Gordon’s output and accuracy are likely to keep him ahead on the scorecards. Expect a competitive fight, but Gordon’s volume striking and veteran savvy should carry him to a unanimous decision victory.
