Houston Texans Odds To Win AFC South: 2025 Betting Outlook and Projections

What are the Texans odds to win AFC south? The Houston Texans came into the 2025 NFL season looking to defend their back-to-back AFC South titles. With C.J. Stroud emerging as a franchise quarterback and a young, energized defense, Houston was projected as the slight favorite to win the division in the preseason. But after a rocky 0–2 start, including a narrow 20–19 loss to the Buccaneers, the Texans odds to win AFC South have lengthened to +270.

That puts them behind the Jaguars in most markets, but ahead of the Colts and Titans. While early results are discouraging, the AFC South has historically been unpredictable. Houston still has the talent and schedule to turn things around — but bettors must weigh whether the current line offers value or signals trouble.

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AFC South Odds Overview

The AFC South is one of the NFL’s most volatile divisions. No single team has consistently dominated for more than a few years at a time, and the Texans themselves are a prime example of that.

Current AFC South Odds

Takeaway: The afc south odds show a tight three-team race. Jacksonville has the slight edge, Houston is right behind, and Indianapolis is close enough to contend. The Titans are long shots, but divisional underdogs have spoiled seasons before.

Houston Texans: Roster Strengths and Challenges

Houston’s roster is a mix of veteran leadership and rising stars. For bettors, this balance makes the Texans both intriguing and frustrating.

C.J. Stroud – The Franchise QB

Stroud has already shown flashes of brilliance in his young career. Through two weeks of the 2025 season:

• 395 passing yards (197.5 YPG)
• 1 TD, 1 INT
• 59 rushing yards with solid pocket mobility

While the numbers aren’t eye-popping, Stroud has avoided big mistakes. For the Texans to win the AFC South, Stroud must evolve from efficient manager to dynamic playmaker, especially in tight divisional games.

Nick Chubb – Veteran Power

Nick Chubb was brought in to stabilize the running game. So far:

• 103 rushing yards, 1 TD
• 3.6 YPC (slightly underwhelming)
• 2 receptions, 29 yards

At 29 years old, Chubb isn’t the explosive threat he once was, but his consistency keeps defenses honest.

Nico Collins – The Deep Threat

Nico Collins is Stroud’s favorite target and a reliable vertical option. Through two games:

• 6 catches, 77 yards, 1 TD
• 17.3 yards per reception

When Collins is involved, Houston’s offense stretches defenses. That will be critical in games against top secondaries like Buffalo and San Francisco.

Defensive Playmakers

• Will Anderson Jr.: Already with 2.0 sacks and 8 tackles, Anderson is the leader of Houston’s pass rush.
• Azeez Al-Shaair: 17 tackles in two games, anchoring the middle of the field.
• Secondary Concerns: While young and talented, Houston’s defensive backs have given up chunk plays early, an issue that must be fixed before divisional matchups against Trevor Lawrence and Anthony Richardson.

Division Competition

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars are currently slight favorites in AFC South odds. With Trevor Lawrence leading a stable offense and an improved defense, Jacksonville has started the season strong. The Week 3 showdown between the Texans and Jaguars could set the tone for the rest of the division.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts remain a wild card. With Anthony Richardson healthy, their offense has upside, but they’re still developing. Their odds (+300) reflect a team capable of winning the division if Houston and Jacksonville stumble.

Tennessee Titans

The Titans are long shots at +750, reflecting a rebuilding roster. They’re physical but lack explosive playmakers. Still, divisional games are unpredictable, and Tennessee could play spoiler to Houston’s title defense.

Texans Betting Insights

So far, betting the Texans has been tricky.

• Against the Spread (ATS): 0–2
• Over/Under: Both games under the total
• Moneyline Betting: 0–2 straight up (losing once as a favorite and once as an underdog)

For value bettors, the Texans may be due for regression. If their offense improves, taking overs or moneyline underdog spots could pay off.

Texans 2025-26 Schedule

Key Swing Games:

• Week 3 @ Jaguars – early AFC South tone-setter.
• Weeks 4 & 10 vs Titans/Jaguars – must-win divisional matchups.
• Weeks 12 & 14 vs Bills/Chiefs – statement opportunities against AFC elites.
• Week 18 vs Colts – could decide the division.

Super Bowl Odds & Playoff Outlook

The Texans Super Bowl odds sit at +7000, translating to just a 1.4% chance. Before the season, they were closer to +3500, but the 0–2 start has halved their implied probability.

While Houston isn’t a realistic championship favorite, the playoffs remain within reach. Their current playoff odds hover around +200 — suggesting about a 33% chance. If they rebound against Jacksonville and Tennessee, those odds could shorten quickly.

Final Word: Can the Texans Win the AFC South?

The Texans odds to win AFC South have slipped, but they remain firmly in the race. C.J. Stroud’s development, Nick Chubb’s reliability, and Will Anderson’s defensive dominance keep Houston dangerous.

To win the AFC South, Houston must:

• Go at least 4–2 in divisional play.
• Clean up turnovers and finish drives.
• Win swing games against Jacksonville and Indianapolis.

At +270, there’s betting value if you believe in a turnaround. The AFC South is a three-team race, and Houston has the pedigree to finish on top once again.