With their season on the brink, the Yankees hand the ball to Carlos Rodón in a must-win at the Stadium against Shane Bieber and a Blue Jays lineup that’s been relentless through two games.
New York still owns elite thump (MLB-best 5.24 R/G, 274 HR), but Toronto’s contact/OBP engine (.265 AVG, .333 OBP) has consistently stacked traffic and flipped leverage.
Expect quick hooks for both starters, heavy bullpen chess, and every extra-base hit to feel like a series swing.
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📺 Where To Watch Blue Jays vs. Yankees ALDS Game 3? (October 7, 2025)
| Item | Info |
| Matchup | Blue Jays at Yankees — ALDS Game 3 |
| Date / Time | Tue., Oct. 7, 2025 — 8:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Streaming | Fubo / FOX Sports app |
| Venue | Yankee Stadium — Bronx, NY |
💰 Betting Odds
| Market | Blue Jays | Yankees |
| Moneyline | +125 to +128 | -150 to -154 |
| Run Line | TOR +1.5 (-172) | NYY -1.5 (+143) |
| Total | 7.5 (Over -114 / Under -106) |
Implied win prob: NYY ~60% • TOR ~44% (book-dependent).
🔢 Projected Starters
| Team | Pitcher | Hand | 2025 Record | ERA | WHIP | K/BB | K/9 | Opp. AVG | Recent Form |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Shane Bieber | RHP | 12–7 | 3.24 | 1.11 | 5.1 | 10.1 | .228 | 5 GS, 31.2 IP, 2.56 ERA, 33 K |
| New York Yankees | Carlos Rodón | LHP | 14–8 | 3.79 | 1.21 | 3.0 | 9.7 | .240 | 5 GS, 30.1 IP, 3.01 ERA, 35 K |
Edge: Nearly even — Bieber’s precision vs. Rodón’s power. Stadium short porch slightly boosts RH bats, making command the difference-maker.
📊 Team Snapshot (Full-Season)
| Metric | Blue Jays | Yankees |
| Record | 94–68 | 94–68 |
| Runs/Game | 4.9 (4th) | 5.24 (1st) |
| AVG / OBP / SLG | .265 / .333 / .427 | .251 / .332 / .455 |
| HR | 191 | 274 |
| K (Batters) | 1,099 (low K) | 1,463 (3rd-most) |
| Team ERA | 4.18 (19th) | 3.91 (Top-half) |
| WHIP | 1.27 | 1.248 |
| Bullpen Save% | 64.6% (42/65) | 67.2% (43/64) |
| Defensive Eff. | 70.0% | 70.8% |
Read: Yankees = top power/scoring; Jays = contact/OBP, enough slug, and a ‘good-enough’ pen that strands inherited runners at a solid clip.
🔥 Current Form (Last 10)
| Team | Record | Runs/G | HR | Team ERA | Notes |
| Blue Jays | 7–3 | 6.2 | 18 | 3.44 | Lineup stacked barrels; pen holding serve. |
| Yankees | 7–3 | 4.7 | 14 | 4.09 | Offense still potent; staff allowing traffic. |
🧢 Key Bats & Angles
| Club | Hitter | 2025 Snapshot | Betting Angle |
| NYY | Aaron Judge | .331, 53 HR, 114 RBI | 1.5+ TB viable; Stadium power alley tailor-made. |
| NYY | Cody Bellinger | .272, 29 HR | Hits O/U or RBI prop live if batting behind Judge traffic. |
| NYY | Ben Rice | .255, 26 HR | Extra-base pop; stacks value in alt TB markets. |
| TOR | Vlad Guerrero Jr. | .292, 34 2B, 23 HR, .381 OBP | 1+ RBI live with men on; gap/liner profile fits park. |
| TOR | George Springer | 32 HR | HR/RBI ladder playable vs LHP if Rodón elevates. |
| TOR | Alejandro Kirk | .282, 15 HR | Contact/RBI floor; single + RBI same-game angles. |
⚔️ Match Levers
- Ball in Play vs Miss: Jays’ low K profile (1,099 K) pressures NYY defense; Yanks counter with strikeouts (9.0 K/9 staff).
- HR Suppression: Total is tight at 7.5; one mis-located heater = two-run swing.
- Bullpen Bridge: Slight edge Yankees in save rate/holds; urgency implies fastest hook yet for both sides.
🎯 ClutchBuzz Best Bets (value-minded)
- Game Total Over 7.5 (-114)
- Power + contact + short porch; both lineups trending up (TOR 6.2 R/G last 10).
- Aaron Judge 2+ Total Bases (books ~-120)
- Locked-in form, plus Stadium boost vs a RHP who lives in zone.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RBI (Yes)
- OBP ahead of him; Jays have piled traffic all series.
Alt sprinkle: Both Teams 3+ Runs (Yes) — correlates with our total lean without needing a slugfest.
🧩 Same-Game Parlay (SGP) — Sensible Build
| Leg | Pick | Est. Odds |
| Over 7 (alt total) | — | -135 |
| Yankees Team Total Over 3 | — | -140 |
| Aaron Judge 2+ TB | — | -115 |
Projected SGP: roughly +260 to +300 (shop lines).
Balanced: cushions total, leans into NYY urgency + Judge’s park fit.
🧠 Final Blue Jays vs. Yankees Prediction
- Starters nearly a wash, but game state/park favors run creation on contact.
- Yankees’ season on the line = aggressive pen usage + premium PA for Judge.
Prediction: Yankees 5, Blue Jays 4
Leans: Over 7.5, Yankees ML, Judge 2+ TB.
