Iowa State vs. Mississippi State: Prediction, Preview, Odds & Picks (Nov 10, 2025)

The stage is set in Sioux Falls as the Mississippi State Bulldogs (1–0) meet the No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones (2–0) in one of the most intriguing early-season matchups on the college basketball slate. Both programs enter Monday night’s neutral-site clash unbeaten, but the similarities stop there — Mississippi State is leaning on raw power and rebounding dominance, while Iowa State brings elite ball movement, spacing, and tempo that could test the Bulldogs in every way.

This Big 12 vs. SEC showdown is not only a measuring stick for both teams but an early opportunity for each coach to prove that their offseason adjustments are paying off. The Cyclones are playing like a top-10 offense out of the gate, while Chris Jans’ Bulldogs continue to embrace the bruising, physical identity that has defined his tenure in Starkville.

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📺 Where to Watch Iowa State vs. Mississippi State? (Nov 10, 2025)

💰 Betting Odds

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings, subject to movement)

🔍 Team Breakdowns

🐶 Mississippi State Bulldogs (1–0, 11th SEC)

Mississippi State’s season opener against North Alabama was a tale of two halves. After falling behind by nine midway through the second, the Bulldogs erupted on a 44–11 closing run, turning a sluggish performance into a dominant 86–62 victory. It was exactly the type of second-half response that Coach Chris Jans loves — physical defense, relentless rebounding, and the steady leadership of sophomore guard Josh Hubbard.

Hubbard, a preseason All-SEC candidate, looked like a floor general in control of the game from start to finish. He dropped 27 points and 8 assists while committing just one turnover, setting the tone for a Mississippi State offense that values patience and shot selection. The Bulldogs may not play fast, but they are efficient in the halfcourt and have enough spacing to allow Hubbard to create mismatches off the dribble.

The supporting cast stepped up as well — Cameron Matthews brought energy on defense and in transition, while Quincy Ballard provided interior toughness, going 4-for-5 from the field with seven rebounds. Ballard’s 7’0” frame will be key tonight against an Iowa State team that’s more finesse than size-driven.

Rebounding is where Mississippi State could make their mark. The Bulldogs pulled down 50 rebounds in the opener, including 17 offensive boards. That kind of presence on the glass can control pace, limit fast breaks, and generate crucial second-chance points — the formula that made them a tournament team last year.

The challenge, however, will be sustaining that physical dominance against an Iowa State defense that thrives on speed and turnover creation. The Bulldogs’ 7 turnovers per game are impressive, but if the Cyclones start pressuring full court, Hubbard and company must be careful not to get caught in transition traps.

Team Snapshot:

• PPG: 86.0
• RPG: 50.0
• APG: 15.0
• TOPG: 7.0
• FG%: 43.7
• 3PT%: 29.6
• FT%: 66.7
• PPG Allowed: 62.0

Strengths:

• Rebounding and second-chance points
• Controlled tempo and ball security
• Veteran composure in crunch time

Weaknesses:

• Perimeter shooting inconsistency
• Transition defense
• Free-throw struggles (66.7%)

🌪 Iowa State Cyclones (2–0, 3rd Big 12)

Few teams have looked sharper in the first week of the college basketball season than the Iowa State Cyclones. T.J. Otzelberger’s squad has dismantled opponents by an average margin of 39.0 points per game, shooting a blistering 53.4% from the field and averaging 19 assists per contest. The Cyclones’ offense hums through rhythm and unselfishness, while their defense suffocates opponents before they can even establish a set.

It starts with sophomore forward Milan Momcilovic, who has quietly emerged as a legitimate NBA prospect. The 6’8” forward leads Iowa State with 20.0 PPG, combining soft touch from midrange with range from deep (38.7% from three). His versatility allows Otzelberger to run positionless sets that stretch defenses thin, creating open looks for Iowa State’s secondary scorers.

Another breakout performer is Joshua Jefferson, who poured in 20 points and 8 rebounds against Grambling. Jefferson brings athleticism, toughness, and the ability to finish through contact — giving Iowa State balance in the paint.

Meanwhile, Tamin Lipsey, the Cyclones’ sophomore point guard, remains the heart of the backcourt. Against Grambling, he produced 10 points, 6 assists, and 5 steals — all while controlling pace like a veteran. His court vision and defensive instincts are why Iowa State ranks among the top 15 nationally in turnovers forced (18.5 per game).

What’s perhaps most impressive is Iowa State’s defensive consistency. The Cyclones have allowed just 56.0 points per game through two contests, holding opponents to 37.6% shooting and just 25.6% from three. Their ability to swarm ball-handlers and rotate quickly makes them one of the toughest defenses to execute against in the nation.

Team Snapshot:

• PPG: 95.0
• RPG: 39.5
• APG: 19.0
• TOPG: 10.5
• FG%: 53.4
• 3PT%: 38.7
• FT%: 63.2
• PPG Allowed: 56.0

Strengths:

• Elite ball movement and spacing
• Turnover creation and transition offense
• Balanced scoring from multiple positions

Weaknesses:

• Rebounding gap (–10.5 differential vs MSST)
• Occasional foul trouble (20 fouls per game)
• Unproven vs. elite size in the paint

📚 Series History

Mississippi State holds a 3–0 all-time advantage over Iowa State, including a 95–56 rout in the 2021 SEC/Big 12 Challenge. That version of Iowa State, however, was still in rebuild mode. This year’s Cyclones have championship-level talent and depth, while Mississippi State is still integrating new offensive schemes around Hubbard’s scoring engine.

For Mississippi State, history offers comfort. For Iowa State, it’s motivation. Expect both teams to play with extra intensity as they battle for early bragging rights between two power conferences.

🔥 Key Matchups to Watch

1. Josh Hubbard vs. Tamin Lipsey (Backcourt Battle)

Two high-IQ guards with very different styles. Hubbard thrives as a scorer who creates off-ball screens and drives, while Lipsey orchestrates, defends, and facilitates. Whoever controls tempo will dictate this game’s rhythm.

Edge: Iowa State (Lipsey’s defensive instincts give him a slight advantage).

2. Quincy Ballard vs. Joshua Jefferson (Interior Presence)

Ballard’s 7-foot frame will be a test for Iowa State’s smaller frontcourt. The Bulldogs will likely look to crash the boards and use Ballard’s size to protect the rim. Jefferson’s activity and rebounding from the forward spot will be crucial to preventing second-chance points.

Edge: Mississippi State (Ballard’s length is a mismatch, if he stays out of foul trouble).

3. Perimeter Defense vs. 3-Point Shooting

Iowa State’s early-season shooting (12-of-31 vs Grambling) has been lights out. Mississippi State allowed North Alabama to shoot 36.8% from deep, which could spell trouble if rotations are slow. If the Bulldogs tighten up perimeter defense, they can stay within striking distance; if not, this could get out of hand fast.

Edge: Iowa State (too much spacing and shooting depth).

📈 Statistical Comparison

Iowa State’s shooting efficiency and passing are elite; Mississippi State’s rebounding is exceptional. This clash of styles will determine whether pace or power wins the night.

💡 Player Props to Watch

🧾 Betting Trends

Both teams have crushed early opponents, but Iowa State’s pace and offensive fluidity appear far more sustainable against Power Six competition.

💥 ClutchBuzz Same Game Parlay (+475)

The Cyclones’ offense is rolling, and Mississippi State’s rebounding should keep them competitive enough to push the total over.

🧩 Keys to the Game

For Mississippi State:

• Win the rebounding battle by +10 or more.
• Keep turnovers under 10.
• Limit transition buckets and fast-break points.
• Get Hubbard free off screens — avoid isolation-heavy sets.

For Iowa State:

• Push pace early to tire out the Bulldogs.
• Force turnovers with full-court pressure.
• Maintain shooting rhythm — especially from Momcilovic and Jefferson.
• Stay out of foul trouble (Cyclones averaging 20 fouls per game).

🧠 Final Analysis

This game is the perfect stylistic contrast — Mississippi State’s grind-it-out physicality versus Iowa State’s uptempo precision. The Bulldogs have the size and rebounding edge, but the Cyclones are simply operating on a higher offensive level right now. Iowa State’s perimeter defense should neutralize Mississippi State’s guards, and their ability to score in bunches will likely prove too much over 40 minutes.

Expect Hubbard to put up another 20-point game and keep the Bulldogs close early, but by the second half, Iowa State’s pace and depth — led by Lipsey and Momcilovic — should separate them on the scoreboard.

🔮 Final ClutchBuzz Iowa State vs. Mississippi State Prediction

The Cyclones move to 3–0 with another statement victory, while Mississippi State learns early-season lessons about spacing, discipline, and tempo against one of the Big 12’s best-balanced teams.