Get the full Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC 315. The women’s flyweight division could get turned upside down at UFC 315 🇨🇦 when former champion Alexa Grasso steps back into the Octagon to face surging Brazilian contender Natalia Silva. Grasso returns after losing her title in a razor-thin decision to Valentina Shevchenko, while Silva rides a perfect 6-0 UFC run that includes dominant wins over Viviane Araujo and Jessica Andrade.
Grasso’s veteran experience meets Silva’s hungry momentum in what feels like a title eliminator bout. The Bell Centre crowd in Montreal is ready 🔥… are you?
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📺 Where to Watch Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva? (May 10, 2025)
| Event | UFC 315: Grasso vs. Silva |
| Date | Saturday, May 10, 2025 |
| Location | Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada 🇨🇦 |
| Prelims Start Time | 6:00 PM ET |
| Main Card Start Time | 10:00 PM ET |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ PPV (USA) / TNT Sports (UK) / UFC Fight Pass (Global) |
| Live Stream | Fubo / ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass / DAZN |
💸 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win Probability |
| Alexa Grasso | +210 | 32% |
| Natalia Silva | -258 | 72% |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -500 | 83% |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | +340 | 22% |
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Alexa Grasso | Natalia Silva |
| Record | 16-4-1 | 18-5-1 |
| Age | 31 | 28 |
| Height | 5’5″ | 5’4″ |
| Weight | 125 lbs | 125 lbs |
| Reach | 66″ | 65″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Strikes Landed/Min | 4.19 | 5.19 |
| Striking Accuracy | 41% | 47% |
| Strikes Absorbed/Min | 3.69 | 2.35 |
| Strike Defense | 58% | 64% |
| Takedowns/15 Min | 0.54 | 0.25 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 40% | 25% |
| Takedown Defense | 54% | 91% |
| Submission Attempts | 0.7 | 0.4 |
🟢 Why Alexa Grasso Will Win
Alexa Grasso may be the betting underdog, but her championship experience cannot be overlooked. She shocked the world once when she submitted Valentina Shevchenko and nearly beat her again in the rematch. Grasso thrives in high-pressure situations, using a technical, well-rounded game based on crisp boxing, high fight IQ, and relentless cardio.
While Silva thrives on overwhelming opponents with pressure and volume, Grasso has faced better strikers and tougher competition. She knows how to survive rough starts and find her rhythm in later rounds, which is where she can take over and turn the tide. If Grasso keeps this fight technical and stays disciplined, she can outpoint Silva over three rounds or catch her in a grappling exchange.
🟣 Why Natalia Silva Will Win
Natalia Silva is the division’s hottest rising star, and she’s looked unstoppable since joining the UFC. She’s won six in a row with a mix of blistering striking volume and dominant cage control. Silva averages over 5 significant strikes per minute while absorbing less than half that, showcasing a clean balance of offense and defense.
Her recent win over Jessica Andrade showed that she can neutralize powerful brawlers with smart footwork and volume. Silva’s 91% takedown defense means she can likely keep this standing, where she holds a slight edge in power and speed. Silva’s non-stop pace and confidence could overwhelm Grasso, especially if the former champ starts slow again.
🎯 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop Market | Odds |
| Fight Goes the Distance | -500 |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -500 |
| Silva to Win by Decision | -150 |
| Grasso to Win by Decision | +400 |
| Fight Ends by KO/TKO | +325 |
| Fight Ends in Round 3 | +600 |
💰 ClutchBuzz Parlay Suggestion
✅ Natalia Silva ML (-258)
✅ Over 2.5 Rounds (-500)
🤑 Parlay Payout: +125
🏆 Final ClutchBuzz Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva Prediction & Pick
Both women are elite strikers and well-rounded fighters, but the championship edge of Alexa Grasso makes her a live underdog here. Still, Silva’s recent performances have been undeniable. Her ability to outland, outpace, and outwork opponents makes her the logical favorite.
However, Grasso’s experience cannot be underestimated. At these odds, the value lies on the former champ to pull off the upset with a smart, technical performance over three rounds. It’s not the safest pick, but for the price, it’s worth backing the fighter who’s been there, done that.
✅ Final Pick: Alexa Grasso (+210)
✅ Best Parlay: Silva ML + Over 2.5 (+125)
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