Get the full Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC 315. Can Muhammad smother another challenger or will Della Maddalena shock the world?
UFC 315 headlines with a welterweight title fight that pits relentless cardio and pressure against one of the division’s most dangerous strikers. Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad puts his belt on the line for the first time against Australian knockout artist Jack Della Maddalena, who rides a perfect UFC record into his first championship opportunity.
Will Muhammad continue to smother and break his challengers over five rounds? Or will Della Maddalena land the shot that changes the trajectory of the division? Let’s dive into this elite welterweight battle.
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📺 Where to Watch UFC 315: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena? (May 10, 2025)
| Event | UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena |
| Date | Saturday, May 10, 2025 |
| Location | Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada 🇨🇦 |
| Prelims Start Time | 6:00 PM ET |
| Main Card Start Time | 10:00 PM ET |
| How to Watch | ESPN+ PPV (USA) / TNT Sports (UK) / UFC Fight Pass (Global) |
| Live Stream | Fubo / ESPN+ / UFC Fight Pass / DAZN |
💸 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win Probability |
| Belal Muhammad | -192 | 65% |
| Jack Della Maddalena | +160 | 38% |
| Over 4.5 Rounds | -200 | 67% |
| Under 4.5 Rounds | +154 | 39% |
📊 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Belal Muhammad | Jack Della Maddalena |
| Record | 24-3-0 (1 NC) | 17-2-0 |
| Age | 36 | 28 |
| Height | 5’11” | 5’11” |
| Weight | 170 lbs | 170 lbs |
| Reach | 72″ | 73″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Strikes Landed/Min | 4.39 | 6.74 |
| Striking Accuracy | 43% | 53% |
| Strikes Absorbed/Min | 3.48 | 4.27 |
| Strike Defense | 57% | 66% |
| Takedowns/15 Min | 2.28 | 0.43 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 39% | 16% |
| Takedown Defense | 89% | 70% |
| Submission Attempts | 0.2 | 0.6 |
🟢 Why Belal Muhammad Will Win
- ✅ Elite cardio and pace over five rounds
- ✅ High-level wrestling and top control
- ✅ Proven five-round experience
- ✅ Unbeaten in last 11 fights, including win over Leon Edwards
Belal Muhammad’s success comes from breaking his opponents with pressure, volume, and takedowns. He mixes strikes with level changes and drags fights into deep waters where few can keep pace. His dominant title-winning performance over Leon Edwards showed his championship pedigree.
Della Maddalena’s striking is elite, but his takedown defense has been exposed before. Muhammad’s ability to mix it up and grind on the cage or the mat could limit Della Maddalena’s knockout chances. Expect Muhammad to use pressure, wrestling, and volume to earn a clear decision.
🟣 Why Jack Della Maddalena Will Win
- ✅ Best pure boxer in the division
- ✅ 7-0 UFC record with 5 finishes
- ✅ Dangerous finisher with KO power
- ✅ Able to rally from adversity, proven in comeback win over Burns
Della Maddalena is one of the most dangerous strikers in the UFC. His shot selection, hand speed, and finishing ability make him a constant threat for 25 minutes. While his takedown defense isn’t elite, he has shown improvement and dangerous counters on entries.
If he can stuff early takedowns and keep the fight standing, his striking advantage could wear on Muhammad. Della Maddalena’s path to victory is landing the cleaner, heavier shots while avoiding prolonged grappling exchanges. A knockout or late finish is not out of the question if he finds his range.
🎯 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop Market | Odds |
| Fight Goes the Distance | -155 |
| Over 4.5 Rounds | -200 |
| Muhammad to Win by Decision | +120 |
| Della Maddalena to Win by KO/TKO | +350 |
| Fight Ends in Round 5 | +650 |
| Muhammad to Win by Submission | +1000 |
💰 ClutchBuzz Parlay Suggestion
✅ Belal Muhammad to Win (-192)
✅ Over 4.5 Rounds (-200)
🤑 Parlay Payout: +145
🏆 Final ClutchBuzz Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena Prediction & Pick
While Della Maddalena’s knockout power is a wild card, Belal Muhammad’s championship experience, grappling, and gas tank should dictate this fight. Muhammad knows how to win rounds, and his pressure wrestling and pace are built for five rounds.
Della Maddalena has the tools to make this close, especially early, but Muhammad’s ability to control where the fight takes place gives him the edge. Look for Muhammad to avoid big shots, grind out cage control, and retain his title by decision.
✅ Final Pick: Belal Muhammad (-192)
✅ Best Parlay: Muhammad to Win + Over 4.5 Rounds (+145)
