When Ismael “Marreta” Bonfim steps into the Octagon against Chris “Taco” Padilla, fans should expect a technical, high-pace lightweight showdown.
Bonfim, one of Brazil’s most polished boxers, looks to rebound after a tough loss to Nazim Sadykhov. Across from him stands California’s Padilla, a late-blooming contender on a three-fight UFC win streak who loves pressure and chaos.
It’s the classic stylistic clash: the crisp counter-puncher vs the scrappy grinder. Expect striking fireworks and scrambles from start to finish in this pivotal bout at UFC Vegas 111.
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📺 Where To Watch Ismael Bonfim vs. Chris Padilla? (November 8, 2025)
| Detail | Info |
| Event | UFC Vegas 111 |
| Venue | UFC Apex — Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Date | Saturday, November 8, 2025 |
| Main Card Start (ET) | 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT |
| Broadcast | ESPN+ |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Method of Victory | Over/Under 2.5 |
| Ismael Bonfim | -200 (Favorite) | Bonfim by Decision +140 | O 2.5 (-130) |
| Chris Padilla | +170 (Underdog) | Padilla by KO/TKO +400 | U 2.5 (+110) |
⚖️ Tale of the Tape
| Ismael Bonfim | Chris Padilla | |
| Record | 20-5-0 | 16-6-0 |
| Age | 29 (🇧🇷 Brazil) | 30 (🇺🇸 USA) |
| Height | 5’8” (173 cm) | 5’9” (175 cm) |
| Reach | 71” (180 cm) | 74” (188 cm) |
| Weight | 155 lbs (70.3 kg) | 155 lbs (70.3 kg) |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Camp | Bonfim Brothers | Fight Science MMA / A4 Fitness |
| Strikes Landed / min | 5.73 | 4.13 |
| Striking Accuracy | 55 % | 51 % |
| Strikes Absorbed / min | 3.10 | 3.68 |
| Takedown Avg / 15 min | 0.8 | 1.56 |
| Takedown Defense | 76 % | 85 % |
| Submission Attempts / 15 min | 0.8 | 0.5 |
🧩 Fighter Breakdown
🟩 Ismael “Marreta” Bonfim
Bonfim burst into the UFC with his viral knockout of Terrance McKinney and still carries the same lethal boxing pedigree that made him a Contender Series standout. His jab-cross combinations are textbook sharp, his head movement economical, and his 70% striking defense among the division’s best.
After a doctor-stoppage loss last time out, Bonfim aims to reassert himself with discipline and volume. Expect him to establish the jab early, use lateral footwork to avoid the clinch, and target Padilla’s midsection to slow the American’s pressure.
🟥 Chris “Taco” Padilla
Padilla is an underrated grinder with sneaky wrestling and cardio for days. The Californian’s 85% takedown defense and willingness to mix boxing with clinch control make him a frustrating opponent.
He’s coming off a narrow split-decision win over Jai Herbert, where his aggression and output won over the judges. To succeed here, Padilla must close distance, pin Bonfim against the fence, and turn the fight into a dogfight. Standing at range with the Brazilian sniper is a recipe for punishment.
📈 Recent Form
| Fighter | Opponent | Result | Method | Round |
| Bonfim | Nazim Sadykhov | Loss | TKO (Doctor Stoppage) | R1 |
| Terrance McKinney | Win | KO (Knee) | R2 | |
| Gabriel Santos | Win | Decision (UD) | R3 | |
| Padilla | Jai Herbert | Win | Decision (SD) | R3 |
| Lucas Clay | Win | Submission (RNC) | R2 | |
| Austin Hubbard | Win | Decision (UD) | R3 |
📊 Fight Metrics & AI Insights
- AI Win Probability: Bonfim 63.4 % | Padilla 36.6 %
- Finish Likelihood: 55 % chance fight goes distance
- Power Edge: Bonfim (+15 % striking impact per landed shot)
- Defense Edge: Bonfim (70 % vs Padilla 57 %)
- Volume Edge: Bonfim (+1.6 sig strikes per minute)
🧠 Fight Analysis
This fight has the makings of a technical showcase.
Bonfim should control the early rounds with speed, precision, and straight punches down the middle. His ability to switch between offense and countering could neutralize Padilla’s forward momentum.
Padilla’s path is to pressure, clinch, and test Bonfim’s durability late. He’ll need to mix in takedown attempts to break rhythm and prevent Bonfim from settling into a boxing match. However, Bonfim’s balance and short-range power make that approach risky.
Unless Padilla can drag this into deep water, Bonfim’s superior striking IQ should carry him through three rounds of clean work.
🎯 Prop Bets & Same-Fight Parlay
| Bet Type | Pick | Odds |
| Fight Goes Distance | ✅ Yes | -125 |
| Bonfim by Decision | ✅ Pick | +140 |
| Bonfim by KO/TKO | Value Play | +250 |
| Padilla by Split Decision | Long Shot | +800 |
| Same-Fight Parlay | Bonfim ML + Over 1.5 Rounds | +115 |
🔮 Final ClutchBuzz Ismael Bonfim vs. Chris Padilla Prediction
| Pick | Method | Round |
| Ismael “Marreta” Bonfim | Decision (Unanimous) | — |
💬 Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (Very High)
🧾 Bonus Play: Fight Goes Distance (-125)
