Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev Prediction: UFC 322 Preview & Betting Picks (Nov 15, 2025)

The bright lights of Madison Square Garden will once again illuminate one of the most anticipated fights of 2025 — as reigning UFC Welterweight Champion Jack Della Maddalena makes his first title defense against Islam Makhachev, the former lightweight king and pound-for-pound #2 fighter in the world.

It’s a fascinating clash of eras and disciplines: the Aussie technician with surgical boxing and calm under fire versus the Dagestani machine whose suffocating wrestling has buried legends from two weight classes. The storyline practically writes itself — “The Puncher vs. the Pressure.”

Della Maddalena’s meteoric rise through the welterweight ranks showcased his blend of accuracy, composure, and grit, culminating in a title-winning performance over Belal Muhammad at UFC 315. Makhachev, meanwhile, cleaned out the 155-lb division, defending his title four times before boldly vacating it to chase history at welterweight.

For Makhachev, victory would make him a two-division UFC champion — joining the likes of Daniel Cormier and Amanda Nunes. For Della Maddalena, it’s a chance to silence doubters and begin a new era as the face of one of the sport’s most dangerous divisions.

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Where To Watch Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev? (November 15, 2025)

💰 Betting Odds

Makhachev enters as a sizable favorite, despite being the smaller man moving up in weight. Oddsmakers see his wrestling, cardio, and submission arsenal as simply too overwhelming — but the public money on Della Maddalena’s power has been climbing since fight week began.

📊 Tale of the Tape

🧠 Fighter Breakdown

🇦🇺 Jack Della Maddalena (18–2, 12 KOs, 2 Subs)

🩸 “JDM” — Calm, clinical, and lethal.

Della Maddalena represents the new wave of striking-first MMA athletes. A black belt in BJJ under Ben Vickers, JDM built his career on precision striking and intelligent defense. He fights behind a crisp jab, feints effectively, and rarely wastes motion. When opponents overcommit, he punishes them with short-range hooks and body shots that sap energy across rounds.

His takedown defense has evolved dramatically under the influence of Craig Jones and Alexander Volkanovski, who’ve added layers to his scrambling and posture control. In his title fight versus Belal Muhammad, JDM stuffed several takedown attempts, punished level changes with knees, and out-landed the former on significant strikes nearly 3:1.

Recent Fights:

• 🟢 Def. Belal Muhammad — Decision (U) — UFC 315 (Won Welterweight Title)
• 🟢 Def. Gilbert Burns — TKO (R2)
• 🟢 Def. Kevin Holland — Decision (S)
• 🟢 Def. Bassil Hafez — Decision (S)
• 🟢 Def. Randy Brown — Submission (R1)

Strengths:

• Precise and economical boxing combinations
• Excellent body targeting and counter timing
• Calm under pressure and elite defensive reads
• Constant composure — rarely wastes movement

Weaknesses:

• Defensive grappling still untested vs elite wrestlers
• Occasionally starts slow in Round 1
• Can be controlled against the cage in prolonged clinches

🇷🇺 Islam Makhachev (27–1, 5 KOs, 13 Subs)

🩸 “The Dagestani Dominator.”

After reigning over lightweight with utter dominance, Islam Makhachev now turns his sights to welterweight gold. His foundation in combat sambo and tutelage under Khabib Nurmagomedov have made him arguably the most complete grappler in the sport. Makhachev blends top-tier wrestling, positional control, and improved striking — an evolution that has seen him finish opponents on both feet and mat.

Freed from the brutal 155-lb weight cut, he’s looked revitalized in camp. His coaches at AKA report increased endurance and power, while maintaining his trademark discipline. Makhachev’s ability to chain wrestle — seamlessly shifting from singles to body locks to back control — remains unmatched. On the ground, his pressure resembles drowning; every scramble becomes a trap.

Recent Fights:

• 🟢 Def. Dustin Poirier — Submission (R4)
• 🟢 Def. Alexander Volkanovski — KO (R1)
• 🟢 Def. Renato Moicano — Submission (R3)
• 🟢 Def. Charles Oliveira — Submission (R2) — Won Lightweight Title
• 🟢 Def. Dan Hooker — Submission (R1)

Strengths:

• World-class chain wrestling and top control
• Elite grappling setups from southpaw entries
• Heavy pressure, unmatched cardio
• Constant improvement in striking — patient, accurate left hand

Weaknesses:

• Shorter reach, can be out-jabbed at range
• Occasionally accepts clinch breaks too easily
• Vulnerable to counters during overextended shots

⚔️ Tactical Breakdown

At its core, this is the ultimate contrast of chaos vs control.
Della Maddalena thrives in small-window exchanges — shoulder rolls, tight hooks, and split-second counters. Makhachev dominates in the macro — cage control, top pressure, and breaking opponents’ will.

Round 1 Outlook:
Expect Makhachev to probe early with body kicks and double feints before ducking under for clinch control. Della Maddalena will try to time the counter left hook as Makhachev changes levels. Whoever wins the first takedown exchange may dictate the entire round.

Mid-fight Momentum:
If JDM keeps distance and invests in body work, the Australian can slow Makhachev’s shots and feints. But if Islam establishes mat control, expect him to ride positions and sap energy with shoulder pressure and wrist traps.

Late-Fight Scenarios:
A slower Makhachev in Round 4–5 could get punished by JDM’s crisp boxing if he’s forced to stand. However, Islam’s positional dominance could easily snowball if JDM spends more than 90 seconds flat-backed per round.

📈 Advanced Stats Snapshot

💣 Prop Bets & Same-Fight Parlays

🔬 Analysis

There’s a reason this bout has captivated fans and analysts alike — it’s rare to see two fighters this skilled, this composed, and this dangerous in every phase of MMA.

For Makhachev: the game plan is simple, but execution is everything. Close distance behind his southpaw left kick, use the clinch to drag Della Maddalena to the canvas, and methodically advance position. Once he’s on top, he’ll look to trap JDM’s wrists, flatten him, and set up a choke or arm-triangle.

For Della Maddalena: the challenge is to force Makhachev into a striking duel. JDM must maintain balance and separation — punishing failed entries with uppercuts, elbows, and precise jabs. If he can prevent sustained control, he has the cleaner striking and sharper reaction speed to steal rounds.

Yet, few have survived Makhachev’s pressure for long. The Dagestani’s positional awareness is suffocating, and once he establishes top control, he doesn’t give up space. The key question: can Della Maddalena’s defensive grappling hold up against a man who out-grappled Oliveira, Moicano, and Poirier with ease?

Most expect the answer to be no — but JDM’s toughness and cardio may extend this deeper than expected.

🔮 Final Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev Prediction

Summary:
Islam Makhachev makes history. The former lightweight champion becomes a two-division titleholder with a masterclass in pressure and positional dominance. Expect early cage wrestling, transitions to back control, and a clean finish once fatigue sets in.

Della Maddalena will have his moments on the feet — especially early — but Makhachev’s relentless pace, top control, and tactical patience should prove decisive.

Alt Outcome (5% hedge): Della Maddalena by KO in Round 2 — catching Makhachev shooting without setup.