Get the full Jafel Filho vs. Allan Nascimento prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Vegas 107.
UFC Vegas 107 brings a thrilling flyweight showdown between Jafel “Pastor” Filho and Allan “Puro Osso” Nascimento — two elite Brazilian grapplers with serious submission chops.
With 25 combined submission wins, fans can expect a high-level chess match on the mat… or a striking showdown if those skills cancel out.
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📺 Where to Watch UFC Vegas 107: Jafel Filho vs. Allan Nascimento? (May 31, 2025)
| Platform | Details |
| 🗓 Date | Saturday, May 31, 2025 |
| 📍 Location | UFC Apex, Las Vegas |
| 📺 Broadcast | ESPN / ESPN+ |
| ⏰ Start Time | Main Card ~10:00 PM ET |
💸 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Allan Nascimento | -155 |
| Jafel Filho | +130 |
🧬 Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Jafel Filho | Allan Nascimento |
| 🆚 Record | 16-3-0 | 20-6-0 |
| 🎂 Age | 32 | 33 |
| 🧍♂️ Height | 5’7″ | 5’8″ |
| ⚖️ Weight | 125 lbs | 125 lbs |
| 🤜 Reach | 68″ | 69″ |
| 🥊 Strikes Landed/Min | 2.36 | 3.21 |
| 🎯 Striking Accuracy | 41% | 61% |
| 🛡️ Strikes Absorbed/Min | 2.00 | 2.28 |
| 🧷 Takedowns/15 Min | 1.77 | 1.55 |
| 🤼 Takedown Accuracy | 33% | 26% |
| 🛡️ Takedown Defense | 55% | 16% |
| 🔒 Submissions/15 Min | 2.6 | 0.9 |
📊 Betting Trends
| Fighter | UFC Record | Last Fight Result | Method |
| Jafel Filho | 2-1-0 | ✅ Win via RNC vs. Ode Osbourne | 1st Round Sub |
| Allan Nascimento | 2-1-0 | ✅ Win via RNC vs. Carlos Hernandez | 1st Round Sub |
- Nascimento has seen 4 fights fall through recently — 3 due to him pulling out
- Filho’s only UFC loss was to rising star Muhammad Mokaev
- Both men are elite grapplers with strong submission resumes
🚑 Injury Report
| Fighter | Status | Note |
| Jafel Filho | ✅ Active | Returning after 14-month layoff |
| Allan Nascimento | ✅ Active | Multiple canceled bouts since last win |
🔍 Fight Breakdown
🥋 Submission Showdown or Striking Surprise?
Both fighters are high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts, boasting a combined 25 career submission wins. Filho has the higher submission rate (2.6 per 15 min) and better takedown defense. Nascimento, however, is the sharper striker statistically (61% accuracy vs. 41%).
⚠️ But here’s the catch — when two elite grapplers meet, we often see their ground games neutralize, leading to a striking-based affair. Both are capable of hanging on the feet, and Nascimento’s higher output could make a difference if the fight goes the distance.
🎯 Prop Bets to Watch
| Bet | Odds |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -166 |
| Fight Goes the Distance | -110 |
| Either Fighter Wins via Submission | +200 |
| Nascimento via Decision | +150 |
📌 Note: Books expect this one to go long — and so do we. Both are hard to finish.
💰 ClutchBuzz Same Fight Parlay
| Leg | Pick |
| ✅ Over 2.5 Rounds | -166 |
| ✅ Fight to Go the Distance | -110 |
| ✅ Nascimento to Win | -155 |
💵 Projected Parlay Payout: +275 (approx)
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Jafel Filho vs. Allan Nascimento Prediction
🔥 Prediction: Allan Nascimento via Unanimous Decision
We love the matchup. Filho is slick on the ground and explosive early, but Nascimento has the edge in striking and cardio. In a matchup where grappling skills could cancel out, we lean toward the more accurate, active fighter — and that’s “Puro Osso.” Expect a close but clear decision win for Nascimento after three technical rounds. 🧠🦴
👉 ClutchBuzz Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (-166)
