Get the full Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Vegas 106.
The Featherweights bring the fireworks to UFC Vegas 106 as veteran finisher Julian “Juicy J” Erosa locks horns with the dangerous and rising Melquizael “Melk Cauthy” Costa.
Both fighters ride two-fight win streaks, and both are seeking a statement victory to break into top-15 conversations.
Expect high-volume striking, scrambles, and plenty of blood.
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📺 Where to Watch UFC Vegas 106: Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa? (May 17, 2025)
| 🗓 Date | Saturday, May 17, 2025 |
| 🕗 Time | Main Card – 8:00 p.m. ET |
| 📍 Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| 📡 Broadcast | ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win % |
| Melquizael Costa | -192 | 65.8% |
| Julian Erosa | +160 | 38.5% |
| Fight Outcome | Odds |
| Fight to Go Distance | +145 |
| Fight Ends in KO/TKO | +170 |
| Fight Ends in Submission | +250 |
📏 Tale of the Tape
| Category | Julian Erosa | Melquizael Costa |
| Record | 31-12-0 | 23-7-0 |
| Age | 35 | 28 |
| Height | 6’1″ | 5’10” |
| Reach | 74″ | 71″ |
| Stance | Southpaw | Southpaw |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:34 | 10:14 |
| Strikes Landed Per Min | 6.40 | 3.86 |
| Striking Accuracy | 49% | 49% |
| Strikes Absorbed Per Min | 6.21 | 2.72 |
| Takedown Avg/15 min | 1.63 | 1.95 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 48% | 34% |
| Takedown Defense | 63% | 54% |
| Submission Attempts/15m | 0.8 | 1.2 |
🔍 Why Julian Erosa Will Win
- ✅ Volume striker with finishing power – Erosa lands a blistering 6.4 significant strikes per minute and has 12 KO/TKO wins to his name.
- ✅ Dangerous from every angle – With 14 career submission wins and underrated takedown accuracy (48%), Erosa’s versatility is elite.
- ✅ Smart cage IQ – Three of his last four wins were first-round finishes thanks to brilliant reads and timing.
💡 If “Juicy J” survives the early flurry, he can outwork Costa and drag him into deep waters.
🔍 Why Melquizael Costa Will Win
- ✅ Youth and pace – Costa is 7 years younger and brings constant pressure with solid durability and cardio.
- ✅ Submission hunter – Costa has 8 career submissions and a higher attempt rate than Erosa. If he can get Erosa’s back, it’s live.
- ✅ Better defense – Costa absorbs just 2.72 significant strikes per minute (vs. Erosa’s 6.21).
💡 “Melk Cauthy” needs to slow the pace and counter off Erosa’s aggression to break him down.
💣 Prop Bets to Watch
| Prop | Odds |
| ✅ Fight Ends Inside the Distance | -140 |
| 💥 Erosa by KO/TKO | +350 |
| 🛑 Costa by Submission | +400 |
| ⏱ Fight Ends in Round 2 | +275 |
| ✅ Over 2.5 Rounds | -110 |
🧪 Same Fight Parlay (ClutchBuzz Pick)
- ✅ Erosa to Win
- ✅ Fight Ends Inside the Distance
- ✅ Over 1.5 Rounds
📊 Odds: +425
💰 $25 wager pays out ~$131
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa Prediction
🥊 Pick: Julian Erosa by Submission (Round 3)
🔮 Confidence Level: 6.5/10
Costa’s raw athleticism is real, but Erosa’s versatility, cardio, and pressure game are perfectly tailored to break Costa down in the later rounds. Expect Erosa to weather the early storm, pick apart Costa with volume, and find a back-take late for a submission finish or tight UD win.
