Check today’s Ponzinibbio vs. Rodriguez prediction here. The welterweight veterans are set to throw down in a tightly contested showdown at UFC Des Moines on Saturday, May 3, 2025, at Wells Fargo Arena in Iowa. What was once a pick’em has now flipped, with the Argentine slugger Santiago Ponzinibbio (-135) taking the favorite tag while Daniel Rodriguez (+110) has become the sharp money underdog.
Both fighters are looking to claw their way back to relevance in the 170-pound division, with Rodriguez holding 87% of the handle despite fewer tickets placed. Expect a high-paced, striking-heavy clash where cardio, chin, and volume will define the winner.
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📺 Where to Watch Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez ? (May 3, 2025)
| Detail | Info |
| 📍 Venue | Wells Fargo Arena – Des Moines, Iowa |
| 🕘 Time | Saturday, May 3, 2025 – Main Card starts at 10:00 p.m. ET |
| 📺 Broadcast | ESPN / ESPN+ |
💰 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | -135 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | +110 |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -238 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | +180 |
📈 Betting Trends & Action
- 🧠 60% of bets on Ponzinibbio, but 87% of the money is on Rodriguez
- 🔄 Line flipped from Rodriguez +105 → +110; Ponzinibbio -125 → -135
- 📉 Heavy sharp action leaning toward a Rodriguez upset by decision
🔑 Ponzinibbio vs. Rodriguez: Tale of the Tape
| Stat | Ponzinibbio | Rodriguez |
| Record | 31-8-0 | 18-5-0 |
| Age | 38 | 38 |
| Height | 6’0″ | 6’1″ |
| Reach | 73″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Sig. Strikes Landed/Min | 4.80 | 7.50 |
| Sig. Striking Accuracy | 41% | 49% |
| Sig. Strikes Absorbed/Min | 4.61 | 5.47 |
| Striking Defense | 61% | 58% |
| Takedown Avg | 0.56 | 0.34 |
| Takedown Defense | 71% | 57% |
👀 Fighter Momentum
Ponzinibbio
- ✅ Win – Carlston Harris (KO, R3)
- ❌ Loss – Kevin Holland (KO, R3)
- ❌ Loss – Michel Pereira (SD)
- ✅ Win – Miguel Baeza (UD)
- ❌ Loss – Geoff Neal (SD)
- 📊 2-3 in last 5 | Veteran chin | Accurate with power
Rodriguez
- ✅ Win – Alex Morono (SD)
- ❌ Loss – Ian Garry (KO)
- ❌ Loss – Neil Magny (SUB)
- ❌ Loss – Kevin Holland (KO)
- ✅ Win – Jingliang Li (SD)
- 📊 2-3 in last 5 | Volume striker | Gets hit a lot
📊 Prop Bets We Like
| Prop | Odds |
| Rodriguez by Decision | +200 |
| Fight Goes Distance | -205 |
| Ponzinibbio by KO/TKO | +350 |
| Rodriguez 100+ Sig Strikes | -115 |
| Fight of the Night Bonus | +600 |
🔁 Same Fight Parlay
| Leg | Pick |
| ✅ Rodriguez to Win | +110 |
| ✅ Over 2.5 Rounds | -238 |
| ✅ Rodriguez 100+ Sig Strikes | -115 |
| 💥 Parlay Odds | +370 |
🔮 ClutchBuzz Ponzinibbio vs. Rodriguez Prediction
Don’t let the line fool you—Daniel Rodriguez is the sharper bet here. He throws nearly twice the volume Ponzinibbio does and has the chin to survive a firefight. Ponzinibbio will push forward, but his accuracy has dipped, and he’s struggled with mobile strikers. Expect D-Rod to land more, stay standing, and edge out a gritty decision win.
🎯 ClutchBuzz Pick: Daniel Rodriguez via Decision (+200)
