UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs Morales Full Card Preview, Prop Bets, Best Parlay Pick (May 17, 2025)

The UFC is back at the APEX with UFC Vegas 106 on Saturday, May 17, 2025, headlined by a high-stakes welterweight clash between rising Ecuadorian prospect Michael Morales and Brazilian powerhouse Gilbert Burns. This event offers a compelling mix of veterans trying to hang onto their spots and surging contenders looking to break into the rankings. From submission specialists like Paul Craig to undefeated up-and-comers like HyunSung Park and Yadier del Valle, this card is a proving ground for the next wave of talent.

While Burns vs. Morales is the marquee matchup, the card is stacked top to bottom with stylistic clashes that promise drama and violence. Whether you’re betting, watching for fun, or scouting future contenders, UFC Vegas 106 has something for everyone—including a tightly built 5-leg parlay to spice things up.

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📺 Where to Watch UFC Vegas 106? (May 17, 2025)

• Date: Saturday, May 17, 2025
• Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
• Main Card Start Time: 7:00 PM ET (4:00 PM PT)
• Prelims Start Time: 4:00 PM ET (1:00 PM PT)
• Broadcast: 🟣 ESPN+ (U.S. only)
• Streaming: UFC Fight Pass (International), fuboTV (w/ subscription)

🥊 Main Card Fights

Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales (Welterweight)

• Odds: Burns +575 | Morales -850
• Prediction: Michael Morales via Decision
  Morales will use his massive 8-inch reach advantage and 92% takedown defense to keep this fight standing. Burns’ only path is grappling, but Morales is too young, too fast, and too fresh.
  ✅ Prop Bet: Morales via Decision (+150)

Check our complete Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales preview and prediction here.

Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig (Light Heavyweight)

• Odds: Bellato -500 | Craig +380
• Prediction: Rodolfo Bellato via KO/TKO
  Craig can pull off miracles on the mat, but Bellato’s volume and takedown defense should keep this standing, where he’s more than double Craig’s output.
  ✅ Prop Bet: Bellato by KO/TKO (-125)

Check our complete Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig preview here.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos (Lightweight)

• Odds: Yusuff +105 | Santos -125
• Prediction: Mairon Santos via Decision
  Yusuff lands more strikes but is hittable. Santos defends 70% of strikes and is trending up.
  ✅ Prop Bet: Fight to go the distance (-140)

Check out the full Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos preview here.

Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (Middleweight)

• Odds: Stoltzfus +240 | Ruziboev -298
• Prediction: Nursulton Ruziboev via KO
  Ruziboev has better striking defense and KO power, while Stoltzfus struggles with absorbing power shots.
  ✅ Prop Bet: Fight ends by KO/TKO (-185)

Check the full Dustin Stolzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev preview here.

Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight)

• Odds: Erosa +160 | Costa -192
• Prediction: Melquizael Costa via Decision
  Erosa’s striking volume is high, but Costa’s defense and well-rounded attack should control this fight.
  ✅ Prop Bet: Costa via Decision (+110)

Check the full Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa preview here.

🧨 Preliminary Card Fights

Gabe Green vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight)

• Odds: Green +190 | Camilo -230
• Prediction: Matheus Camilo via Decision
  Green’s experience is real, but Camilo is a more composed and technical fighter.
  ✅ Prop Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (+120)

Check our Gabe Green vs. Matheus Camilo preview here.

Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises (Lightweight)

• Odds: Gordon -110 | Moises -110
• Prediction: Thiago Moises via Decision
  Gordon is busy, but Moises is the more dangerous grappler and more efficient striker.
  ✅ Prop Bet: Fight goes the distance (-330)

Check our Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises preview here.

Yadier del Valle vs. Connor Matthews (Featherweight)

• Odds: Del Valle -470 | Matthews +360
• Prediction: Yadier del Valle via TKO
  Del Valle is undefeated, aggressive, and explosive. Matthews has been KO’d twice.
  ✅ Prop Bet: Del Valle via KO/TKO (+110)

Check our Yadier der Valle vs. Connor Matthews preview here.

Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa (Women’s Bantamweight)

• Odds: Santos -130 | Lisboa +110
• Prediction: Luana Santos via Decision
  She has more output and better takedown defense.
  ✅ Prop Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (-270)

Check out our full Luana Santos vs. Tainara Lisboa preview here.

Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes (Women’s Strawweight)

• Odds: Reed +425 | Gomes -575
• Prediction: Denise Gomes via Decision
  Reed is tough but Gomes will dominate the striking.
  ✅ Prop Bet: Gomes via Decision (-150)

Check out our full Elise Reed vs. Denise Gomes preview here.

HyunSung Park vs. Carlos Hernandez (Flyweight)

• Odds: Park -148 | Hernandez +124
• Prediction: HyunSung Park via Decision
  He’s more dangerous in scrambles and lands more damage.
  ✅ Prop Bet: Park via Decision (+100)

Check out HyunSung Park vs. Carlos Hernandez preview here.

Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro (Women’s Strawweight)

• Odds: Pennington -455 | Pinheiro +350
• Prediction: Tecia Pennington via Decision
  More volume, more cardio, better footwork. Easy pick.
  ✅ Prop Bet: Pennington via Decision (-180)

Check Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro prediction and detailed preview here.

💰 UFC Vegas 106 Parlay Pick

Here’s our recommended 5-leg parlay for UFC Vegas 106:

🧮 Parlay Odds (Est.): +475
💸 Wager $25 to win $143.75

🎯 Final Prediction for UFC Vegas 106

This card is a mix of proven veterans and breakout talent looking to make statements. We could see multiple finishes and breakout performances, especially from fighters like Michael Morales, Rodolfo Bellato, and Yadier del Valle. The safest plays are Morales ML and Gomes via Decision, while Green and Burns are the top-value underdog shots.

🎥 Don’t miss UFC Vegas 106, streaming live on ESPN+ starting at 4 PM ET this Saturday.