Check Emmett vs Murphy odds here. The UFC heads back to the APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, April 5, for a thrilling night of action at UFC Vegas 105, headlined by a compelling featherweight showdown: Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy.
This main event pits one of the division’s most dangerous knockout artists against an undefeated rising star. With the Emmett vs Murphy odds trending heavily in favor of the Brit, bettors and fans alike are asking: is Josh Emmett being overlooked?
Let’s break down the fighters, the betting lines, recent form, and make our official prediction for Emmett vs Murphy. You can find a guide on how to bet on UFC here.
📅 Event Details
- Fight: Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy
- Date: Saturday, April 5, 2025
- Time: Main card starts at 7:00 PM ET
- Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Broadcast: ESPN / ESPN+
📊 Emmett vs Murphy Odds (Last Updated On April 5, 2025)
| Fighter | Moneyline | Implied Win % |
| Josh Emmett | +240 | 29.4% |
| Lerone Murphy | -298 | 75.2% |
- Over/Under Rounds: 2.5 (Over -120 / Under +100)
- Method of Victory Props:
- Murphy by Decision: +115
- Emmett by KO/TKO: +300
- Murphy by KO/TKO: +200
- Fight Goes the Distance: -105
The Emmett vs Murphy odds heavily favor Murphy, who is unbeaten in the UFC and fresh off two impressive decision wins in 2024. Emmett, however, remains a live underdog with legitimate fight-ending power.
🧠 Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Josh Emmett | Lerone Murphy |
| Record | 19-4 | 15-0-1 |
| Age | 39 | 32 |
| Height | 5’6″ | 5’9″ |
| Reach | 70 in | 73 in |
| UFC Record | 10-4 | 7-0-1 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Significant Strikes Landed/Min | 4.17 | 3.92 |
| Striking Accuracy | 38% | 50% |
| Takedown Avg | 1.00 | 1.38 |
| Takedown Defense | 58% | 75% |
Edge: Lerone Murphy – younger, faster, more accurate, and defensively sound.
🔍 Josh Emmett vs Lerone Murphy: Fighter Breakdown
🔵 Josh Emmett
Josh Emmett snapped a two-fight losing streak in devastating fashion, flattening Bryce Mitchell in the first round at UFC 296. He’s known for his one-punch knockout power and has scored five UFC performance bonuses in his last seven fights.
However, Emmett is 39 years old and has taken a lot of damage in recent years, especially in losses to Yair Rodriguez and Ilia Topuria. Still, he’s battle-tested and thrives in brawls.
Path to Victory: Emmett needs to turn this into a slugfest early. His best chance lies in closing the distance, landing a bomb, and catching Murphy off guard.
Featherweight fighter Josh Emmett walks away from Bryce Mitchell after a first-round knockout during the UFC 296 mixed martial arts event Saturday, Dec. 16, 2023, in Las Vegas. (Steve Marcus/Las Vegas Sun via AP)
🔴 Lerone Murphy
Lerone “The Miracle” Murphy has quietly built an impressive 7-0-1 UFC record, including a Fight of the Night performance against Edson Barboza and a dominant win over Dan Ige. He mixes slick boxing, tight defensive fundamentals, and underrated wrestling.
Murphy’s movement, jab, and footwork make him a stylistic nightmare for aging punchers like Emmett. He hasn’t been tested by a true KO artist yet, but he’s passed every test so far with poise.
Path to Victory: Keep range, work the jab, stay mobile, and chip away with clean strikes and well-timed takedowns to earn a decision or late finish.
💰 Betting Odds: Emmett vs Murphy Analysis
🧾 Moneyline Value
- Lerone Murphy at -298 is a steep price, suggesting he wins this fight 75% of the time. That aligns with the stylistic edge and youth advantage, but it leaves little room for value on a straight bet.
- Josh Emmett at +240 is an intriguing underdog. He has fight-ending power and the kind of awkward, explosive rhythm that can change a fight with one punch.
📊 Best Prop Bets
- Murphy by Decision (+115): Most likely outcome given Emmett’s durability and Murphy’s measured style.
- Fight Goes to Decision (-105): Emmett tends to go to the scorecards when he can’t land the big shot.
- Murphy by KO (+200): Has sneaky power and could finish a weathered Emmett late.
- Sprinkle: Emmett by KO (+300): Live underdog play for those hunting an upset.
🧪 Stat Matchup & Trends
| Stat Category | Emmett | Murphy |
| UFC Fights | 14 | 8 |
| KO/TKO Wins | 6 | 7 |
| Decision Wins | 7 | 6 |
| UFC Bonuses | 5 | 2 |
| Current Win Streak | 1 | 7 |
Betting Trends
- Emmett is 1-2 in his last 3, with two losses via finish.
- Murphy is 4-0 in his last 4, with 3 going the distance.
- Emmett has never lost by decision in the UFC.
- Murphy has never been knocked out or submitted.
🧠 Expert Pick & Final Prediction
This fight boils down to timing vs technique. Emmett still possesses thunder in his hands, but Murphy has shown a high Fight IQ, strong footwork, and smart shot selection. The undefeated Englishman will likely keep Emmett at bay, frustrate him, and pick him apart round by round.
If Emmett doesn’t land early, Murphy’s edge in speed, cardio, and defense will only grow as the rounds progress.
✅ Prediction: Lerone Murphy def. Josh Emmett via unanimous decision
🔥 Best Bet: Murphy by Decision (+115)
🎯 Lean: Fight Goes the Distance (-105)
📺 How to Watch UFC Vegas 105: Emmett vs Murphy
- Date: Saturday, April 5, 2025
- Time: 7 PM ET Main Card
- Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV
- Broadcast: ESPN / ESPN+
Other Fights In UFC Vegas 105
💣 Co-Main: Joanderson Brito (-180) vs Pat Sabatini (+150)
- Lean: Brito ML or Inside the Distance
- Analysis: Brito is explosive and powerful early, while Sabatini relies more on control and grappling. Brito’s aggressive style may overwhelm Sabatini before he can get the fight to the mat.
🐍 Cortavious Romious (-250) vs Chang Ho Lee (+205)
- Lean: Pass or Over 1.5 rounds
- Analysis: Romious is still green but has raw power and athleticism. Chang Ho Lee is a skilled striker with solid cardio, making him an intriguing underdog play.
💪 Kennedy Nzechukwu (-250) vs Martin Buday (+205)
- Lean: Nzechukwu ML
- Analysis: Nzechukwu’s reach and kicking game give him the edge, especially against Buday’s slower, grinding style. If Kennedy avoids the clinch, he likely outpoints or finishes Buday.
⚔️ Brad Tavares (-142) vs Gerald Meerschaert (+120)
- Lean: Over 2.5 rounds or Tavares ML
- Analysis: Tavares is notoriously hard to finish and technically sound. Meerschaert is always a submission threat, but he often struggles against durable, defensively sound strikers like Tavares.
🧱 Torrez Finney (-148) vs Robert Valentin (+124)
- Lean: Finney ML
- Analysis: Both undefeated prospects, but Finney’s pace and aggression may break Valentin over three rounds. Could be a banger.
🦅 Luis Gurule (-200) vs Ode Osbourne (+170)
- Lean: Gurule ML or Under 2.5
- Analysis: Gurule is fast, explosive, and has serious finishing upside. Osbourne is inconsistent and hittable but always dangerous with flying knees and counters.
🔥 Dione Barbosa (-350) vs Diana Belbita (+285)
- Lean: Pass or Barbosa Inside the Distance
- Analysis: Belbita is tough but limited. Barbosa has a huge grappling edge and could dominate positionally. Not a lot of value at this price, but parlay material.
🧊 Daniel Frunza (-145) vs Rhys McKee (+125)
- Lean: McKee ML (value)
- Analysis: Frunza has power, but McKee has faced far tougher competition. If McKee weathers the early storm, he could take over with volume and experience.
⚡ Loma Lookboonmee (-400) vs Istela Nunes (+330)
- Lean: Lookboonmee by decision
- Analysis: Loma is one of the most technical strikers at strawweight and should outclass Nunes everywhere. Not much value straight, but could anchor parlays.
🎯 Victor Henry (-155) vs Pedro Falcao (+135)
- Lean: Henry ML or Over 2.5
- Analysis: Henry has a serious cardio edge and more experience. Falcao has sharp boxing, but Henry’s pace, volume, and toughness are hard to match.
🧵 Talita Alencar (-150) vs Vanessa Demopoulos (+130)
- Lean: Demopoulos ML (value dog)
- Analysis: Both are gritty grapplers, but Demopoulos has shown better cardio and more experience in big moments. Could be a split-decision type of fight.
✅ UFC Vegas Low-Risk Anchor Parlay (Safe Picks, Lower Odds)
Goal: Stack wins with dominant favorites
Payout: ~+110 to +130 (varies by book)
- 🟦 Loma Lookboonmee ML (-400) — superior striking, should cruise to a decision
- 🟪 Dione Barbosa ML (-350) — big grappling edge over Belbita
- 🔵 Victor Henry ML (-155) — more tested and has the volume edge
- 🟩 Daniel Santos ML (-205) — tighter striking, Grant is wild but hittable
🧠 Strategy: This is your ‘build-a-base’ parlay — four fighters with clear paths to victory and strong stylistic edges.
💣 Mid-Risk Value Parlay (Moderate Upset Potential, Solid Edge)
Goal: Tap into value without overexposing to chaos
Payout: ~+400 to +500
- 🟦 Joanderson Brito ML (-180) — early finishing potential against grappler
- 🟨 Brad Tavares ML (-142) — technical striker vs submission-reliant Meerschaert
- 🟥 Luis Gurule ML (-200) — faster, more explosive striker vs inconsistent Ode
- 🟩 Under 2.5 Rounds in Emmett vs Murphy (+110) — Emmett throws bombs, Murphy pressures nonstop
🧠 Strategy: This mix gives you proven fighters and one violence prop to boost your return.
🎲 High-Risk, High-Reward Parlay (Underdog + Wild Card)
Goal: Swing for the fences
Payout: +900 to +1300
- 🟥 Josh Emmett ML (+240) — power is the equalizer
- 🟩 Pedro Falcao ML (+135) — live underdog with crisp hands
- 🟦 Vanessa Demopoulos ML (+130) — gritty, experienced grappler
- 🟨 Over 1.5 Rounds in Brito vs Sabatini (-130) — both may neutralize early chaos
🧠 Strategy: Risky but fun. One Emmett bomb or a sneaky sub from Demopoulos could cash it.
🏁 Final Thoughts on Emmett vs Murphy Odds
The Emmett vs Murphy odds reflect a changing of the guard in the UFC featherweight division. Josh Emmett’s power makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone, but Lerone Murphy appears to be entering his prime with momentum, technical polish, and undefeated swagger.
For bettors, Murphy by decision provides a solid balance of safety and value, while Emmett by KO is the high-risk, high-reward flier.
No matter the outcome, this UFC Vegas 105 main event is a classic striker’s chess match between an established vet and a surging star.
