Two Conference USA rivals collide under the Tuesday night lights when the Liberty Flames (2–4) host the New Mexico State Aggies (3–2) at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Virginia. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network.
The Flames come in as 9.5-point favorites after snapping a two-game losing skid with a grind-it-out 19–8 win over UTEP. Their defense has quietly been one of the most underrated units in the country, ranking 12th nationally in pass yards allowed (154.2 YPG) — but their offense continues to sputter, averaging just 17.3 points per game (125th in FBS).
Meanwhile, New Mexico State is coming off a convincing 37–10 win over Sam Houston, powered by a sharp performance from QB Logan Fife, who threw for 244 yards and two scores. The Aggies’ defense remains tough in the red zone, but their lack of a running game (just 50.8 rushing yards per game, 136th in FBS) could make them one-dimensional against Liberty’s disciplined front.
Expect a physical, low-scoring affair — a typical CUSA clash built on field position, defense, and who avoids turnovers.
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📺 Where to Watch Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico State Aggies? (October 14)
| Detail | Information |
| Game | Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico State Aggies |
| Date | Tuesday, October 14, 2025 |
| Time | 7:00 PM ET |
| Venue | Williams Stadium — Lynchburg, VA |
| TV | CBS Sports Network |
| Live Stream | Fubo |
💰 Betting Odds
| Line | Liberty Flames | New Mexico State Aggies |
| Spread | -9.5 (-110) | +9.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -355 | +280 |
| Total (O/U) | 47.5 | — |
Implied Score: Liberty 28 – New Mexico State 18
📊 Team Comparison (2025 Season)
| Category | Liberty Flames | New Mexico State Aggies |
| Record | 2–4 | 3–2 |
| Points For / Game | 17.3 (125th) | 22.2 (121st) |
| Points Against / Game | 20.7 (45th) | 22.8 (60th) |
| Passing Yards / Game | 186.8 (105th) | 260.8 (42nd) |
| Rushing Yards / Game | 166.0 (58th) | 50.8 (136th) |
| Pass Yards Allowed / Game | 154.2 (12th) | 241.6 (101st) |
| Rush Yards Allowed / Game | 196.8 (126th) | 157.0 (95th) |
| Red Zone Defense | 10th (70%) | 9th (69%) |
Edge: Liberty defense — elite secondary vs. pass-heavy opponent.
🔥 Matchup Breakdown
Liberty’s Defense vs. New Mexico State’s Offense
Liberty’s defense is the reason they’ve stayed competitive. They allow just 6.0 yards per pass attempt (23rd nationally) and excel at red-zone stands. The Flames’ defensive line has been quietly dominant, forcing 9 turnovers through six games. Their main focus tonight? Forcing QB Logan Fife into third-and-long situations where his pocket presence becomes shaky.
New Mexico State’s Passing Attack
Fife leads a unit averaging 260.8 passing yards per game, but the Aggies’ offense is nearly allergic to rushing production — ranking dead last in FBS. That imbalance could spell trouble against Liberty’s disciplined back seven, who have limited opponents to just five passing touchdowns all season. Expect short, timing-based throws to Donovan Faupel (312 yards) and PJ Johnson III (3 TDs) to keep drives alive.
Liberty’s Offense: Searching for Balance
QB Ethan Vasko has shown flashes (1,006 yards, 6 TDs), but the Flames’ offense remains inefficient, averaging 0.3 points per play (104th). The rushing duo of Evan Dickens and Julian Gray must carry the load again after combining for over 230 yards last week. The Aggies’ defense has been decent against the run, but Liberty’s commitment to the ground game could wear them down late.
🧍♂️ Key Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Position | 2025 Highlights |
| Ethan Vasko | Liberty | QB | 1,006 YDS / 6 TD / 3 INT + 3 RUSH TD |
| Evan Dickens | Liberty | RB | 344 YDS / 5.3 YPC / 2 TD |
| Donte Lee Jr. | Liberty | WR | 289 YDS / 3 TD |
| Logan Fife | New Mexico State | QB | 1,270 YDS / 6 TD / 4 INT |
| Donovan Faupel | New Mexico State | WR | 312 YDS / 1 TD |
| PJ Johnson III | New Mexico State | WR | 215 YDS / 3 TD |
⚔️ Head-to-Head Trends
| Trend | Result |
| Liberty leads series | 3–1 |
| ATS Last 4 Meetings | 2–2 |
| Average Combined Score | 62.7 points |
| Over/Under Last 4 | 2–2 |
📈 Betting Trends
| Trend | Stat |
| Liberty is 2–4 ATS this season | |
| New Mexico State is 2–3 ATS | |
| Liberty games average 50.3 PPG, slightly above this total (47.5) | |
| The Aggies’ last 3 games have averaged 49.8 PPG | |
| Liberty’s defense has allowed 20 or fewer points in 3 of 6 games |
🎯 Best Bets
| Market | Pick | Odds | Reasoning |
| Spread | New Mexico State +9.5 | -110 | Flames’ offense too inconsistent to trust as big favorite |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | Both defenses thrive in red zone, tempo projects slow |
| Player Prop | Evan Dickens Over 75.5 Rush Yards | — | Workhorse role; NMSU weak vs. physical backs |
| First Half Total | Under 23.5 | — | Expect early feeling-out phase, both teams lean on D |
🧩 Same Game Parlay (SGP)
- New Mexico State +9.5
- Under 47.5
- Evan Dickens Anytime TD
💰 Payout: +525
🧾 ClutchBuzz Liberty Flames vs. New Mexico State Aggies Prediction
The Flames are the better team on paper, but their offense is simply too inefficient to pull away comfortably against a New Mexico State squad that knows how to hang around. Expect the Aggies to grind this out behind Fife’s passing and a red-zone defense that forces Liberty into field goals instead of touchdowns.
Final Score Prediction:
🔥 Liberty 24 – New Mexico State 20
Best Bets:
✅ Aggies +9.5
✅ Under 47.5
✅ Dickens Anytime TD
