The James Madison Dukes (6–1) and the Texas State Bobcats (3–4) collide under the Tuesday night lights in San Marcos in a matchup featuring one of the nation’s toughest defenses against one of its most explosive rushing attacks. The Dukes’ front seven ranks 2nd nationally in rush defense, but they’ll be tested by Texas State’s top-10 ground game led by dual-threat QB Brad Jackson and RB Lincoln Pare.
Kickoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2 at UFCU Stadium, and this Sun Belt clash could decide who stays alive in the conference title chase.
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📺 Where to Watch James Madison vs. Texas State Bobcats? (October 28)
| Date | Time (ET) | Venue | TV | Live Stream |
| Tuesday, Oct 28, 2025 | 8:00 PM | UFCU Stadium – San Marcos, TX | ESPN2 | Fubo |
💰 Betting Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total (O/U) |
| James Madison Dukes | -6.5 (-118) | -265 | 55.5 (-110) |
| Texas State Bobcats | +6.5 (-102) | +215 | 55.5 (-110) |
Implied Score: James Madison 31 – Texas State 24
Public Action: 61% of bets on JMU to cover
📊 Team Overview
🟣 James Madison Dukes (6–1, 5–2 ATS)
| Category | Stat | FBS Rank |
| Total Offense | 432.3 YPG | 35th |
| Rush Offense | 243.7 YPG | 7th |
| Pass Offense | 188.6 YPG | 106th |
| Scoring Offense | 32.3 PPG | 44th |
| Rush Defense | 74.3 YPG | 2nd |
| Total Defense | 237.0 YPG | 4th |
| Points Allowed | 15.6 PPG | 11th |
🟪 Last Game: Beat Old Dominion 63–27, racking up 624 total yards (311 on the ground).
The Dukes continue to dominate in the trenches, holding opponents under 100 rushing yards in five of seven games.
🟡 Texas State Bobcats (3–4, 2–5 ATS)
| Category | Stat | FBS Rank |
| Total Offense | 487.9 YPG | 8th |
| Rush Offense | 230.7 YPG | 10th |
| Pass Offense | 257.1 YPG | 39th |
| Scoring Offense | 36.1 PPG | 24th |
| Total Defense | 404.9 YPG | 104th |
| Points Allowed | 31.3 PPG | 116th |
🟨 Last Game: Lost 40–37 to Marshall despite 558 total yards.
The Bobcats’ offense is elite in pace and balance — but their defense gives up big plays in nearly every phase.
📈 Betting Trends
| Team | ATS Record | O/U Record | Last 3 Games | Key Trend |
| James Madison | 5–2 | 1–6 | 3–0 SU | 6–0 SU as favorite |
| Texas State | 2–5 | 4–3 | 1–2 SU | 0–3 ATS at home |
| Combined | — | — | — | Under hit in 5 of JMU’s last 6 |
Notable: Texas State’s home games average 60.4 total points, while JMU’s defensive matchups average just 51.2. Expect tempo to decide which side of that total wins out.
🔍 Key Matchups
When James Madison Has the Ball
The Dukes thrive on read-option and QB power, using Alonza Barnett III (9 rush TDs) and Wayne Knight (611 rush yards) to grind down opponents. Texas State’s defense ranks 96th against the run, making this a potential mismatch in the trenches. Expect a steady dose of RPOs and play-action seams to Landon Ellis.
Edge: JMU run game vs TXST front seven.
When Texas State Has the Ball
QB Brad Jackson is the engine — a dual threat with 1,786 passing yards, 384 rushing yards, and 17 combined TDs. He faces his toughest challenge yet against a JMU defense allowing just 2.5 yards per carry. Texas State will need quick strikes and tempo, leaning on Beau Sparks (674 yards, 6 TDs) to stretch the field.
Edge: Slight to JMU’s defense — unless TXST hits explosives early.
⭐ Key Players to Watch
| Player | Team | Position | 2025 Stats |
| Alonza Barnett III | JMU | QB | 1,252 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT; 266 rush yds, 9 TD |
| Wayne Knight | JMU | RB | 611 rush yds, 5 TD; 165 rec yds |
| Landon Ellis | JMU | WR | 400 rec yds, 5 TD |
| Brad Jackson | TXST | QB | 1,786 pass yds, 9 TD, 2 INT; 384 rush yds, 8 TD |
| Lincoln Pare | TXST | RB | 608 rush yds, 9 TD |
| Beau Sparks | TXST | WR | 674 rec yds, 6 TD |
💡 Prop Bets to Watch
| Market | Pick | Reason |
| Brad Jackson Anytime TD | ✅ Yes (+120) | Dual-threat QB with 8 rush TDs |
| Wayne Knight Rushing Yards | ✅ Over 88.5 | Faces soft run defense (162.7 YPG allowed) |
| Beau Sparks Receiving Yards | ✅ Over 70.5 | Leads TXST; heavy usage vs zone |
| Total Points | ✅ Over 55.5 | Texas State home games average 60+ points |
🎯 Same-Game Parlay (SGP)
| Leg | Pick |
| Texas State +9.5 (alt) | |
| Over 52.5 (alt) | |
| Brad Jackson Anytime TD | |
| Wayne Knight 80+ Rushing Yards | |
| Projected Odds: +450 |
🔮 Final ClutchBuzz Prediction
This matchup is a stylistic tug-of-war — JMU’s bruising defense versus Texas State’s high-tempo offense. Expect early dominance from the Dukes’ line, but Texas State’s pace and home-field energy could close the gap late.
Final Score:
🟣 James Madison 34 – Texas State 28
Best Bets:
- Texas State +6.5 ✅
- Over 55.5 ✅
- Barnett Anytime TD ✅
ClutchBuzz Pick: Texas State keeps it close, but JMU survives the shootout.
