Get a full Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 5 preview with odds, key players, injury news, player props, parlay picks and our ClutchBuzz prediction.
After four games of wildly contrasting styles, the Oklahoma City Thunder and Denver Nuggets enter a pivotal Game 5 with the series deadlocked at two games apiece. For the Thunder, it’s an opportunity to protect home court and put the reigning champs on the brink. For the Nuggets, it’s a chance to steal back momentum after a low-scoring Game 4 collapse.
The narrative has shifted dramatically since the series began. Game 1 and Game 2 were all-out shootouts, clearing 240+ total points. But in Games 3 and 4, we saw defense take center stage. Game 4, in particular, was a grindfest — just 179 total points were scored, the lowest of the entire NBA Playoffs so far.
Now, the Thunder return to Paycom Center — where they’re 34-8 at home this season — as 10.5-point favorites, with the total set at 220.5. With Nikola Jokic struggling, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander surging, and benches playing a major role, Game 5 might be the turning point of the series.
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📺 Where to Watch Nuggets vs. Thunders Game 5? (Tuesday, May 13)
| Date | Time (ET) | TV | Streaming |
| Tuesday, May 13 | 9:30 PM | TNT / truTV / MAX | Fubo, Sling |
💰 Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
| Thunder | -10.5 (-110) | -500 | O 220.5 (-110) |
| Nuggets | +10.5 (-110) | +380 | U 220.5 (-110) |
📊 Head-to-Head & Series Recap
| Game | Result | Notable Performers |
| Game 1 | Thunder 123 – Nuggets 117 | SGA: 35 pts, Jokic: 33 pts |
| Game 2 | Nuggets 128 – Thunder 115 | Jokic: 40 pts, Williams: 22 pts |
| Game 3 | Nuggets 111 – Thunder 106 | Murray: 26 pts, Holmgren: 18 pts |
| Game 4 | Thunder 97 – Nuggets 82 | SGA: 27 pts, Wallace: 11 pts off the bench |
The series has been a chess match between elite offenses and suddenly elite defensive adjustments. SGA is averaging 29.8 PPG for the series, while Nikola Jokic has shot under 40% from the field in the last three games.
🔥 Expert Pick & Prediction
| Pick Type | Prediction |
| Spread | ✅ Thunder -10.5 |
| Over/Under | ✅ Over 220.5 |
| Final Score | Thunder 123 – Nuggets 108 |
Oklahoma City is 22-9-3 ATS when favored by 10+ points and they’ve covered four straight in the playoffs. This team doesn’t just win — they run teams out of the gym when they gain momentum. With Jokic banged up and Denver’s bench contributing just 14 points in Game 4, the Thunder should control the pace.
📈 Betting Trends
ATS & Over/Under
| Team | ATS (Season) | Over % | Avg. Points Scored | Avg. Points Allowed |
| Thunder | 53-29 (1st) | 54.9% | 120.5 (4th) | 107.6 (3rd) |
| Nuggets | 38-43-1 (23rd) | 59.8% | 120.8 (3rd) | 116.9 (24th) |
Recent Trend: The total has gone Over in 4 of the last 6 Thunder home games.
Thunder are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as favorites.
🧩 Matchup Edge
- Bench Scoring: OKC’s second unit outscored Denver’s bench 35-14 in Game 4.
- Defense: Thunder have held Jokic under 20 points in 2 of 4 games.
- Turnovers: OKC forces 15.3 turnovers per game in the playoffs.
🎯 Prop Bets to Watch
🔵 Thunder Player Props
| Player | Points Line | Season Avg |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 31.5 (-120) | 32.7 |
| Jalen Williams | 21.5 (-120) | 21.6 |
| Chet Holmgren | 15.5 (-105) | 15.0 |
| Luguentz Dort | 8.5 (-120) | 10.1 |
💡 Prop Lock: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points – SGA has scored 27+ in 5 of last 6, and he draws fouls at an elite rate.
🔶 Nuggets Player Props
| Player | Points Line | Season Avg |
| Nikola Jokic | 27.5 (-125) | 29.6 |
| Jamal Murray | 19.5 (-125) | 21.4 |
| Michael Porter Jr. | 11.5 (-125) | 18.2 |
| Aaron Gordon | 16.5 (-105) | 14.7 |
🚨 Fade Alert: Jokic Under 27.5 Points – He’s been visibly fatigued and facing constant doubles. Under in 3 straight.
🏁 Final ClutchBuzz Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 5 Prediction
With elite perimeter defense, an explosive bench, and SGA playing like an MVP, the Thunder are poised to cover a double-digit spread at home. Expect Denver to respond early, but OKC’s legs and youth will prevail in the second half.
🧠 ClutchBuzz Final Pick:
✅ Thunder -10.5
✅ Over 220.5
🏆 Final Score: Thunder 123 – Nuggets 108
