Check today’s Thunder vs. Nuggets game 1 prediction here. The young, surging Oklahoma City Thunder begin their second-round playoff journey against the defending champion Denver Nuggets on Monday night at Paycom Center. With OKC entering as a 9.5-point favorite, this series promises a clash of styles: Oklahoma City’s fast-paced, balanced roster against Denver’s battle-tested core led by Nikola Jokic.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is putting together a historic MVP-caliber season, and he’s flanked by rising stars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. The Nuggets, meanwhile, enter on short rest after surviving a grueling seven-game series vs. the Clippers, capped by a blowout Game 7 win.
OKC may be rested, but they’ll have to out-execute a Nuggets team that has been here before. With Game 1 tipping off in front of a raucous home crowd, all eyes will be on whether the Thunder’s youth can rise to the moment — or if Denver’s championship DNA takes over.
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📺 Where to Watch Thunder vs. Nuggets Game 1? (May 5, 2025)
| Platform | Details |
| 🕤 Tip-Off | Monday, May 5 at 9:30 PM ET |
| 📍 Venue | Paycom Center, OKC |
| 📺 TV | TNT, truTV, MAX |
💸 Betting Odds
| Bet Type | Thunder | Nuggets |
| Spread | -9.5 (-110) | +9.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -425 | +330 |
| Over/Under (225) | Over -110 | Under -110 |
📊 Betting Trends
- Thunder are 53-26-3 ATS this season (22-14-3 ATS as ≥9.5pt favorites).
- Nuggets are 38-44 ATS, including 2-1 as 9.5+ point underdogs.
- OKC has gone Over 225 in 50 of 82 games, Denver in 61 of 82.
- Thunder/Nuggets combine for 241.3 PPG – nearly 16.3 more than the O/U line.
🔁 Regular Season Head-to-Head
| Date | Result | Location |
| Mar 10, 2025 | Nuggets 140 – 127 | @ OKC |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Thunder 127 – 103 | @ OKC |
| Nov 6, 2024 | Nuggets 124 – 122 | @ DEN |
| Oct 24, 2024 | Thunder 102 – 87 | @ DEN |
➡️ Series Split 2–2
📊 Aggregate Score: OKC 107 – DEN 96 (Avg. per game)
🩺 Injury Report
- Thunder:
- Ajay Mitchell (OUT – toe sprain)
- Nikola Topic (OUT – torn ACL)
- Chet Holmgren (Questionable – hasn’t played back-to-back games since return from hip injury)
- Nuggets:
- Julian Strawther (OUT – knee sprain)
- DaRon Holmes II (OUT – torn Achilles)
- Aaron Gordon (Doubtful – calf)
🔑 Key Players to Watch
⚡ Thunder
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: 32.7 PPG, 6.4 APG, 1.7 STL, 52% FG
- Jalen Williams: 21.6 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 5.1 APG
- Chet Holmgren: 18.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 2.8 BLK vs. Memphis
- Isaiah Hartenstein: 11.2 PPG, 10.7 RPG
- Aaron Wiggins: Key role player with 12.0 PPG off the bench
🏔️ Nuggets
- Nikola Jokic: 29.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 10.2 APG, 57.6% FG, 41.7% 3PT
- Jamal Murray: 21.4 PPG, 6.0 APG – clutch in late-game scenarios
- Michael Porter Jr.: 18.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG
- Christian Braun: 15.4 PPG, 5.2 RPG
- Russell Westbrook: 13.3 PPG, 6.1 APG – returns to OKC in hostile territory
🔮 Prop Bets to Watch
| Player | Stat | Line | ClutchBuzz Pick |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | PTS | 30.5 | ✅ Over |
| Jokic | AST | 9.5 | ✅ Over |
| Jalen Williams | 3PM | 1.5 | ✅ Over |
| Jamal Murray | PTS | 22.5 | ❌ Under (fatigue) |
| Chet Holmgren | BLK | 2.5 | ✅ Over |
🧪 Same Game Parlay (SGP)
| Leg | Odds |
| Thunder ML | -425 |
| Over 225 Total Points | -110 |
| Jokic Over 9.5 AST | -115 |
| Jalen Williams Over 1.5 3PM | -120 |
| Chet Holmgren Over 2.5 Blocks | +110 |
| Total Parlay Odds | +975 |
🏁 Final ClutchBuzz Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction
OKC is rested, healthy (barring Chet), and clicking on both ends of the floor. While Jokic and Murray give Denver a fighting chance, fatigue and depth will be a problem against a Thunder team that runs nine deep and ranks top 3 in both defensive and offensive rating.
🔒 Thunder 123, Nuggets 109
✅ Bet: Thunder -9.5 | ✅ Over 225
