Get the full Kurt Holobaugh vs. Jordan Leavitt prediction, betting picks, prop bets and same-fight parlay ideas for UFC Vegas 107.
UFC Vegas 107 brings a lightweight clash between veteran Kurt “The Hurt” Holobaugh and submission specialist Jordan “The Monkey King” Leavitt. While Leavitt is the betting favorite, Holobaugh’s durability and experience make this an intriguing stylistic chess match.
Holobaugh is coming off a decision loss to Alexander Hernandez, a bout in which he landed more total strikes but failed to secure the rounds on the judges’ scorecards.
Leavitt, meanwhile, was submitted in the first round by Chase Hooper — a tough setback for the Las Vegas native. He now looks to rebound and impose his grappling dominance.
Can the younger submission ace control the fight on the mat, or will Holobaugh’s grit and striking volume steal the show?
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📺 Where to Watch UFC Vegas 107: Kurt Holobaugh vs. Jordan Leavitt? (May 31, 2025)
| Detail | Info |
| 📅 Date | Saturday, May 31, 2025 |
| 🏟 Venue | UFC Apex, Las Vegas |
| 🕗 Time | Prelims ~6:00 PM ET |
| 📺 Broadcast | ESPN+ |
💸 Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
| Kurt Holobaugh | +170 |
| Jordan Leavitt | -205 |
💡 Leavitt opens as a solid favorite — but bettors are watching Holobaugh closely due to his edge in experience and striking output.
🧬 Tale of the Tape
| Attribute | Kurt Holobaugh | Jordan Leavitt |
| 📊 Record | 22-9 (1 NC) | 11-3 |
| 📏 Height | 5’11” | 5’9″ |
| 📐 Reach | 70″ | 71″ |
| ⚖️ Weight | 155 lbs | 155 lbs |
| 🥋 Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| 📈 Avg Fight Time | 11:26 | 6:52 |
| 🧠 Age | 39 | 29 |
📈 Betting Trends & Insights
- Holobaugh has landed over 100 strikes in each of his last two fights.
- Leavitt has been submitted in 2 of his last 3 bouts.
- Holobaugh is 11 years older, making this one of the biggest age gaps on the card.
- Leavitt’s takedown accuracy (25%) is a concern — but Holobaugh’s takedown defense (39%) is even shakier.
🧠 Insight: If Leavitt can get this to the ground early, he’ll have the edge. But if it becomes a striking match, Holobaugh’s pace could wear him down.
🧍♂️ Key Matchup Breakdown
- Striking Advantage: Holobaugh ➕ (4.65 SLpM vs. Leavitt’s 2.55)
- Submission Threat: Leavitt ➕ (1.1 subs per 15 min)
- Durability: Holobaugh ➕ (Only one career sub loss)
- Grappling Control: Leavitt ➕ (excellent positional control when on top)
🎯 Expect a clash between Leavitt’s grappling-first game plan and Holobaugh’s forward pressure striking.
📊 Prop Bets to Watch
| Bet | Projected Odds |
| ✅ Fight Goes to Decision | -110 |
| ✅ Leavitt via Decision | +130 |
| ⚠️ Holobaugh via KO/TKO | +500 |
| ❌ Leavitt via Submission | +220 |
| 🔄 Over 2.5 Rounds | -120 |
📌 Prop insight: Holobaugh has only been submitted once in 32 fights. That makes a Leavitt decision bet more appealing than submission here.
💰 ClutchBuzz Same Fight Parlay
| Leg | Pick |
| ✅ Leavitt ML | -205 |
| ✅ Over 2.5 Rounds | -120 |
| ✅ Fight Goes to Decision | -110 |
🔥 Projected Parlay Odds: +265
🧠 Final ClutchBuzz Kurt Holobaugh vs. Jordan Leavitt Prediction
🎯 Prediction: Jordan Leavitt via Unanimous Decision
It won’t be flashy, but Leavitt should control enough of the fight with his grappling to earn the nod. Holobaugh is tough, experienced, and volume-heavy, but age, declining takedown defense, and Leavitt’s positional game make the difference here.
💸 Best Bet: Leavitt moneyline (-205)
🔍 Prop Value: Leavitt via Decision (+130)
